4/4 Right now, Russia's strategy is like that :

-Missiles for heavily defended + underground targets (industrial/power plant)
-Drone missiles (Banderol, Dan-t, Geran-5) against fixed and middle targets
-Geran-4 drones against fixed/moving targets, mainly more important ones
-Geran-2 drones for saturation and targets close to the border

Thanks for following.

Addendum : on October 7th, at least 4 additional missile impacts can be seen in Lozova, Kharkiv oblast. t.me/osint_alarm/6286

Russia 🇷🇺 bombed multiple data centers in Kyiv, Dnipro or Odesa these last few weeks and proudly showed footage about it

Now, Ukraine is bombing Yandex data centers and causing much more harm to Russia than Russia did to Ukraine.

This is another example of symmetrical war. In September, I explained why I believed targeting Wildberries indirectly triggered a massive strike campaign against Ukrainian civilian warehouses, there were strikes before but it sharply increased in mid-July.

In fact, I do believe both Russia and Ukraine are replying to each other strikes. After Russia targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructures, Ukraine started doing the same. This applies to Ports, gas stations, trucks, railway infrastructure, bridges... What should be kept in mind is how an army must think about the consequences of any offensive action.

Thus, bombing refineries is very useful because Russia cannot bomb any Ukrainian refinery (all of them are out of use).

Less than 2 hours after Trump 🇺🇸 announced an energy ceasefire, Russia hit Kharkiv Thermal Power Plant

🔹️Ukraine 🇺🇦 didn't know about the ceasefire before Trump announced it
🔹️Russia 🇷🇺 broke it directly, or maybe didn't know about it ?

Two possibilities :

➡️ Trump is making deals alone without even asking anyone
➡️ Or it only concerns refineries, which is funny because Ukraine has no working refinery, so they would have no interest respecting this deal if Russia continues to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Usual Trump moment, thinking he is the best negotiator...

On the Velika Novosilka front, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues to make advances on a large front against Russia 🇷🇺's 29th Army

Based on incomplete information available via OSINT (geolocated videos, satellite imagery, and Telegram channels updates), Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive operations along the southern front and have advanced several kilometers.

These operations are being conducted under the command of the DShV (Air Assault Forces), a formation established specifically for this sector earlier in the year, facing the Russian 29th Army, which is grappling with mounting difficulties. The Novopavlivka sector is also in a precarious state following the redeployment of the 41st Army toward Dobropillia, leaving few defensive units in the area.

🔹To the north, Ukrainian forces are advancing from Novopavlivka toward Dachne, while Russian infiltration units continue to attempt attacks toward Ivanivka (though without reaching previously liberated areas).

🔹Ukrainian troops continue to cross the Mokri Yali River and are infiltrating deep into the area in small groups. Urban combat has reportedly been underway in Komar for over a month, evidenced by the frequent shelling of their positions in the forests and villages to the north and west.
🔹At the same time, it appears they have entered Fedorivka, although there is currently no visual evidence to confirm this.

🔹Further south, Ukrainian forces have reached a significant portion of the second line of defense established in 2023, extending almost to the Mokri Yali River. According to various Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, Shevchenko is reportedly under Ukrainian control, with continued, though unconfirmed, advances to the south and east. There is only a single piece of visual evidence showing Ukrainian troops in Shevchenko. For the time being, I prefer to maintain a large "gray zone" due to the lack of information and the frequent presence of Russian soldiers behind Ukrainian lines.

The Ukrainians' main success is having reached the Mokri Yali River, a difficult obstacle for Russian forces to cross, thereby distancing key urban centers and roads in the Dnipropetrovsk region (the junction between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk) from the front line. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have retaken a significant portion of the 2023 defensive line, specifically the bunkers that allow for the establishment of strong positions for drone operators.

What comes next? For now, the Ukrainians appear to be focusing on urban combat in Komar and Sevchenko. Should these settlements fall, they would provide two key villages where forces could be concentrated and concealed ahead of winter. Meanwhile, several pontoon bridges have been destroyed at Velyka Novosilka, as the small town—the region's primary logistics hub—comes under increasing pressure.

Thank you for following along. The information presented here is based solely on open-source data that is at least 10 days old; both Russian and Ukrainian forces are avoiding the release of information regarding this sector, which complicates research efforts.

Russian 🇷🇺 sources – the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army is pushing back the front line near Sloviansk

Following months of a Russian offensive against Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian army has deployed reinforcements and begun stabilizing the front.

Operations to clear out infiltrating forces east of Sloviansk have been underway for at least two months. Most Russian Telegram channels have been reporting on this situation for several weeks, a fact confirmed by numerous videos.

This is further proof that the Ukrainian offensive at Lyman succeeded in stabilizing and subsequently pushing back the front line across a wide area. It appears that all of Biletskyi's 3rd Army Corps currently holds the initiative...

Dobropillia direction.

The situation is quite peculiar tactically:

South, after the clearing conducted since August, some Russian groups still remain in the dotted square, mixed with some new infiltrators, but they aren't significant.

Much further north, above Andriivka, a total of 8 small Russian groups of 2-4 people each are moving as we speak towards Rohanske (3 groups), Starovarvarivka (2 groups), and Novoiavlenka (3 groups). Their infiltration routes are marked with a good degree of precision.
The furthest Russian group was recorded almost 20+ km northwest of the red zone

Further west, Russian infiltrators also moved towards Vesela Hora, apparently, approximately as shown (from the southwest), but I don't have complete information here.

In general, those Russian groups do not constitute an operational or even tactical advancement threat, as they are practically encircling themselves, which makes it completely understandable to suspect that they got a task from their command to conduct a flagging operation.
Tactically, though, they are definitely dangerous, as they can still raid and ambush rear Ukrainian positions. At this depth, we're talking about EW/EI positions, temporary deployment points, and artillery and drone positions.

By now, this is not surprising anymore (I recommend reading this: https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6340), especially due to the absolutely massive amount of committed Russian manpower.
Nonetheless, soldiers in these directions would be best advised to follow security measures (https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6093, https://t.me/PlayfraOSINT/6094).

During the last 4 months, Russia 🇷🇺 made a slow but steady progress in the direction of Dobropilla

Russian forces continue to advance and capture villages and small towns south of Dobropilla. Shevchenko and Bilytske fell, Russian forces are now attacking Dobropilla from the south and the east.

The battle for the city may start in the next few weeks/months and could last very long. Thanks to the New Donbas Line, part of the offensive to attack the city from the east and north is currently stopped. We should remember how much manpower Russia is using in this direction. We are talking about 3 armies, which are suffering important losses but are getting a big chunk of the manpower reserves right now, which is why multiple other directions are suffering from manpower issues.

Map : @Deepstate_UA

New interview : https://ukrainianweek.com/clement-molin-ukraine-russia/

One of the questions, regarding the Russian 🇷🇺 campaign against Europe :

— In recent months, there’s been growing concern that Vladimir Putin could turn his attention to Europe if the war in Ukraine remains deadlocked. The issue came into sharper focus after CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly visited Moscow to warn Russia against attacking European countries. How serious is the threat to Europe? Are you seeing Russian forces building up along Europe’s borders?

– No, they’re not amassing troops on Europe’s borders, and I don’t see Russia launching a ground invasion of any European country in the next few months. If you look at where the Russian army is right now, where its military assets are and where its logistics are concentrated, it’s all in Ukraine or around Ukraine.

If they tried anything in Estonia, Latvia or another country, they would risk being flanked or attacked in Kaliningrad, and they couldn’t defend against that with nuclear deterrence alone. I don’t think that’s a very good idea, and I don’t think the Russian military command is that crazy. That said, we know from the past that they’ve already launched some very audacious invasions, including the invasion of Ukraine with fewer than 200,000 troops.

Yet, I don’t see a ground invasion of a European country happening in the near future.

However, I do think they will carry out sabotage operations targeting the defense industry and energy infrastructure, because Europe is facing some challenges at the moment. In France, for example, there have been protests over fuel prices, mainly because of the situation in the Middle East, but also partly because of the war in Ukraine.

For Russia, this is a good opportunity to weaken support for Ukraine, especially financial support. In France, for example, there’s a debate about whether the country should continue providing Ukraine with so much financial assistance, particularly with elections coming up in April next year.

The difficulty is that Russia isn’t attacking Europe directly. Instead, it is applying pressure in less overt ways, including through sabotage. There are also repeated drone incursions: drones cross into the airspace of the Baltic states and Moldova on a near-daily basis, and occasionally into that of Romania and Poland.

This morning, @Deepstate_UA updated the last part of the Vivaldi operation on the Lyman direction

This map update is weird because it still does not show the main advance, which occured from Nove to Kolodiazi, but it closely follows OPSEC for the eastern part, which is still not officially lifted. What is blue on the map happened before August 20th.

And now, some older geolocations are being published : https://x.com/moklasen/status/2110268949023924228 This one happened on June 20th 2026, 4 months ago... -> For all the people saying nothing happened and there were no proofs.

These last 5 days, taking advantage of the Starshield speed restriction (which doesn't seem to end), Russia 🇷🇺 sent thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦

Russia launched a continuous flow of Geran-4/5 drones (blue on the map), as usual, as well as a large number of Geran-2 (yellow), which are slower and flying in large groups. Hundreds of targets were struck in the country, including many civilian ones.

For the first time in months, western Ukraine was heavily targeted with repeated strikes in Lutsk, Kovel, Rivne and other cities. The trend is very worrying, since drones can move nearly everywhere in the country and threaten energy infrastructure, industries and warehouses. I will soon update on the strikes on Kyiv and western Ukraine.

Source of the maps: t.me/StrategicaviationT

Map of Russian 🇷🇺 drones and missiles strikes against Ukraine 🇺🇦 every month of 2026

This summer, Russia concentrated strikes against the eastern and central part of the country. Odesa and Kyiv suffered a lot at the end of the summer. Right now, many strikes are happening in the western side of the country, as Russia is targeting Ukraine's energy facilities.

Main focus every month this year :
▫️January to April : civilian residential (partly from misses) and electrical targets are on top. Russia tried to collapse the energy system.
▫️April to June : fuel, roads and industries take the lead, Russia tried to retaliate to Ukraine's mid-range strikes.
▫️July to October see a rise of attacks against warehouses, roads, railways and ports, while fuel continued to be attacked.
▫️October saw a total switch to energy targets as winter is closing in.

Situation in Dobropilla 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

The situation in the city has recently deteriorated, with Russian forces now being spotted in various neighborhoods and started the first flag videos for their propaganda efforts.

For several weeks, if not months, Russian forces have made repeated attempts to infiltrate the area, utilizing two main routes: one leading to the northeast of the city and another, more recently, to the southwest. Russian forces continue to advance into the southern outskirts, particularly following the capture of Bilytske and Shevchenko, and the "gray zone" has now expanded into parts of the city itself.

The battle for Dobropilia began a little over a month ago, and we now have a clearer picture of the current, real-world situation. While Ukrainian forces still hold the city, the presence of Russian infiltrators is becoming increasingly apparent. The situation is broadly similar to that of Kostiantynivka a year ago (the city is still disputed).

However, Ukraine retains a defensive advantage, as it still controls the flanks, supported by defensive lines that protect the rear of the city, as well as its eastern and northern sides.

With autumn and winter approaching, the Russians are under pressure to reach the city, as infiltration will become significantly more difficult once the leaves fall, especially given the defensive lines, trenches, and barbed wire established by the Ukrainians.

Right now, the battle for Dobropilia is the primary ongoing engagement; the Russians have committed massive manpower, while the Ukrainian side, defended by the National Guard’s Azov Corps, is fighting for every square kilometer, while their strategic reserves remain held behind for now.

The geography of Russian 🇷🇺 strikes in Ukraine 🇺🇦:

As the number of targets hit has surged (from 666 in January to 1,572 in September), the geographical focus of Russia’s strike campaign—involving one-way-attack (OWA) drones and missiles—against Ukraine has shifted.

▫️Between January and June, the priority was on areas near the front line.
▫️Since July, there has been a noticeable increase in strikes targeting Kyiv, Odesa, and the western regions.

This map draws on data published via Russian Telegram channels—information I have been able to corroborate through my own work in geolocating the impact sites.

Since mid-September, strikes have occurred almost daily in the western part of the country, with a primary focus on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Yesterday, Ukraine 🇺🇦 approved a fortification plan for the country, with a target date of 2028. The construction of extensive defensive lines will continue.

As a reminder, the lines visible in the photo below are already complete in the eastern part of the country. New lines of this type are currently being prepared in the north and northeast to protect Ukraine against Russian offensives.

These lines—consisting of three anti-tank ditches, "dragon's teeth," and extensive barbed and concertina wire—are extremely difficult to cross, which increases the number of casualties on the Russian side.