The war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now resulted in nearly one million military deaths 🇺🇦/🇷🇺.
At present, only partial tallies of military casualties exist—tracked by Mediazona on the Russian side and Ualosses on the Ukrainian side. Both sides go to great lengths to conceal their actual losses and likely do not even have an exact count themselves.
What has been verified:
🇺🇦 106,000 dead, 105,000 missing (the majority of whom are likely dead), and 12,000 prisoners of war—totaling approximately 224,000 casualties.
🇷🇺 282,000 dead, with at least another 70,000 added by the end of 2025, totaling approximately 352,000 casualties (losses for 2026 are barely accounted for).
However, these tallies are incomplete. For instance, a significant portion of Russian losses from 2025 and 2026 remain uncounted, due to Russian censorship.
@M0nstas has noted that the official figures released by the Ukrainian side align closely with Russian casualty figures when a variable killed-to-wounded ratio is applied.
At present, only partial tallies of military casualties exist—tracked by Mediazona on the Russian side and Ualosses on the Ukrainian side. Both sides go to great lengths to conceal their actual losses and likely do not even have an exact count themselves.
What has been verified:
🇺🇦 106,000 dead, 105,000 missing (the majority of whom are likely dead), and 12,000 prisoners of war—totaling approximately 224,000 casualties.
🇷🇺 282,000 dead, with at least another 70,000 added by the end of 2025, totaling approximately 352,000 casualties (losses for 2026 are barely accounted for).
However, these tallies are incomplete. For instance, a significant portion of Russian losses from 2025 and 2026 remain uncounted, due to Russian censorship.
@M0nstas has noted that the official figures released by the Ukrainian side align closely with Russian casualty figures when a variable killed-to-wounded ratio is applied.
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He concludes that a substantial share of the losses from 2025 and 2026 have not been recorded.
Consequently, the actual number of Russian deaths is likely closer to 500,000–600,000.
On the Ukrainian side, too, the figures are underreported. *Ualosses* explains that obtaining precise data is quite difficult for large cities, the Transcarpathian region, and the occupied territories in the south and east. It should be noted that obtaining data from the Ukrainian side is easier, given the lower level of censorship and the existence of an official registry of missing persons.
I estimate Ukrainian casualties—in terms of deaths—to be between 300,000 and 400,000, though such estimates are fraught with difficulty.
➡️ Focusing solely on Ukrainian and Russian losses overlooks tens of thousands of other deaths. This includes foreign volunteers/mercenaries, Ukrainians from occupied territories (such as the DPR and LPR, as well as other regions) who were conscripted into the Russian army and subsequently killed, and the 2,000 North Koreans killed in the Kursk region.
➡️ Furthermore, it is important to remember that for every person killed, at least two others have been wounded—including tens of thousands who have suffered amputations on both sides. This helps explain, for instance, the official Ukrainian figure of 1.5 million total military casualties.
The true toll is therefore far higher than one million deaths. To fully grasp these trends, one must also account for cases of PTSD, deserters, and soldiers who have been demobilized.
This war is a bloodbath, and each passing year appears deadlier than the last.
Sources: Charts by @M0nstas, using data from @mediazona_en and @LossesUA.
Consequently, the actual number of Russian deaths is likely closer to 500,000–600,000.
On the Ukrainian side, too, the figures are underreported. *Ualosses* explains that obtaining precise data is quite difficult for large cities, the Transcarpathian region, and the occupied territories in the south and east. It should be noted that obtaining data from the Ukrainian side is easier, given the lower level of censorship and the existence of an official registry of missing persons.
I estimate Ukrainian casualties—in terms of deaths—to be between 300,000 and 400,000, though such estimates are fraught with difficulty.
➡️ Focusing solely on Ukrainian and Russian losses overlooks tens of thousands of other deaths. This includes foreign volunteers/mercenaries, Ukrainians from occupied territories (such as the DPR and LPR, as well as other regions) who were conscripted into the Russian army and subsequently killed, and the 2,000 North Koreans killed in the Kursk region.
➡️ Furthermore, it is important to remember that for every person killed, at least two others have been wounded—including tens of thousands who have suffered amputations on both sides. This helps explain, for instance, the official Ukrainian figure of 1.5 million total military casualties.
The true toll is therefore far higher than one million deaths. To fully grasp these trends, one must also account for cases of PTSD, deserters, and soldiers who have been demobilized.
This war is a bloodbath, and each passing year appears deadlier than the last.
Sources: Charts by @M0nstas, using data from @mediazona_en and @LossesUA.
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Several hundred Ukrainian civilians 🇺🇦 who had been living under Russian 🇷🇺 occupation in Oleshky for four and a half years have arrived in Ukraine.
This unprecedented humanitarian operation speaks volumes about the war in Ukraine.
🔹️These civilians lived in a town located on the front line in the Kherson region (a static front along the Dnipro River). The town fell on February 24, 2022, and has since been used by the Russian military to shell the city of Kherson. From the buildings in this town, a "human safari" has been carried out—a form of target practice for Russian drone operators, who use civilians in Kherson as their targets.
🔹️Consequently, the town has been heavily bombarded by the Ukrainian military, while the Russians blocked all exits and allowed a state of widespread famine to take hold over the past several months, preventing both the entry of food supplies and the departure of civilians.
What key aspects of this ceasefire should be noted?
👉 For the first time, a ceasefire was fully respected by both sides (including Russia, which typically violates such agreements unless it has initiated them itself).
👉 The majority of the civilians chose Ukraine, while a minority chose Russia (it should be noted that the latter will only be able to return home one day by remaining within Russia).
👉 The scenes of joy, the reception provided by the Ukrainian population (see video), and the symbolic significance of the operation underscore a clear reality: these civilians were not liberated by Russia, but by Ukraine. This offers a glimpse into the situation currently endured by many others in Berdiansk, Melitopol, Tokmak, and across the occupied south. 👉Furthermore, I have seen several videos from the Ukrainian-held side of the Dnipro, featuring civilians who show the extent of the damage—footage I intend to share. We are talking about a vast city that has been destroyed and ransacked, with civilians massacred for no reason by Russian drones...
What happens now?
▫️The ceasefire ends tomorrow evening, which points to the likely resumption of a campaign of massive strikes by both sides. The Russians have used the last few days to stockpile ammunition and are preparing for a large-scale bombardment of Kherson. For their part, the Ukrainians will be able to shell Oleshky with fewer qualms, now that some of the civilians have left (an indirect benefit of such an operation).
▫️Can we expect similar missions elsewhere in occupied Ukraine? I’m not particularly optimistic about that at the moment, but there are many villages and towns along the front line that absolutely must be evacuated...
This unprecedented humanitarian operation speaks volumes about the war in Ukraine.
🔹️These civilians lived in a town located on the front line in the Kherson region (a static front along the Dnipro River). The town fell on February 24, 2022, and has since been used by the Russian military to shell the city of Kherson. From the buildings in this town, a "human safari" has been carried out—a form of target practice for Russian drone operators, who use civilians in Kherson as their targets.
🔹️Consequently, the town has been heavily bombarded by the Ukrainian military, while the Russians blocked all exits and allowed a state of widespread famine to take hold over the past several months, preventing both the entry of food supplies and the departure of civilians.
What key aspects of this ceasefire should be noted?
👉 For the first time, a ceasefire was fully respected by both sides (including Russia, which typically violates such agreements unless it has initiated them itself).
👉 The majority of the civilians chose Ukraine, while a minority chose Russia (it should be noted that the latter will only be able to return home one day by remaining within Russia).
👉 The scenes of joy, the reception provided by the Ukrainian population (see video), and the symbolic significance of the operation underscore a clear reality: these civilians were not liberated by Russia, but by Ukraine. This offers a glimpse into the situation currently endured by many others in Berdiansk, Melitopol, Tokmak, and across the occupied south. 👉Furthermore, I have seen several videos from the Ukrainian-held side of the Dnipro, featuring civilians who show the extent of the damage—footage I intend to share. We are talking about a vast city that has been destroyed and ransacked, with civilians massacred for no reason by Russian drones...
What happens now?
▫️The ceasefire ends tomorrow evening, which points to the likely resumption of a campaign of massive strikes by both sides. The Russians have used the last few days to stockpile ammunition and are preparing for a large-scale bombardment of Kherson. For their part, the Ukrainians will be able to shell Oleshky with fewer qualms, now that some of the civilians have left (an indirect benefit of such an operation).
▫️Can we expect similar missions elsewhere in occupied Ukraine? I’m not particularly optimistic about that at the moment, but there are many villages and towns along the front line that absolutely must be evacuated...
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Forwarded from Maps and stuff
GSUA reported 6 549 attacks and 54 200 IvanZ in October, the highest monthly figure of the war.
58% of the attacks are undefined.
Average losses per identified attack reached 21 men per attack, up from 18 in September.
Magyar's USF reported 16 821 personnel hit, 31% of the GSUA figure and its highest month so far.
Russia's net gain was 57 km² of red: 138 taken, 81 lost. That is about 960 IvanZ per km², against about 700 in September.
Assaults and ground did not line up: 589 assaults at Toretsk brought 2 km² of red, while Lyman saw 221 assaults and lost 81 km².
Russian activity decreased on most fronts. Gulyaipole is the exception with +141 assaults and the largest gain, 45 km².
The distribution of the 2 772 identified assaults can be found above.
GSUA published no morning report on 18 October, so that day is extrapolated from the 22:00 update.
58% of the attacks are undefined.
Average losses per identified attack reached 21 men per attack, up from 18 in September.
Magyar's USF reported 16 821 personnel hit, 31% of the GSUA figure and its highest month so far.
Russia's net gain was 57 km² of red: 138 taken, 81 lost. That is about 960 IvanZ per km², against about 700 in September.
Assaults and ground did not line up: 589 assaults at Toretsk brought 2 km² of red, while Lyman saw 221 assaults and lost 81 km².
Russian activity decreased on most fronts. Gulyaipole is the exception with +141 assaults and the largest gain, 45 km².
The distribution of the 2 772 identified assaults can be found above.
GSUA published no morning report on 18 October, so that day is extrapolated from the 22:00 update.
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After a short break and strikes on Russian 🇷🇺 oil/fuel reserves in October (Rostov, Saint Petersburg, Samara), Ukraine 🇺🇦 hit 3 refineries in 3 days
The Samara, Ufa and Kstovo refineries were hit on October 30th, 31st and November 1st. Multiple fires were seen, which confirms that this operation was successful.
These successful strikes are very important to periodically stop multiple Russian refineries from working, which creates a fuel penury in Russia and fewer exportations, which means less money for the state.
The Samara, Ufa and Kstovo refineries were hit on October 30th, 31st and November 1st. Multiple fires were seen, which confirms that this operation was successful.
These successful strikes are very important to periodically stop multiple Russian refineries from working, which creates a fuel penury in Russia and fewer exportations, which means less money for the state.
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III- Situation on Oskil 🇺🇦 (eastern) front
The front across the Oskil river was the most successful one for Ukraine this year, from Lyman to Kupiansk. A year ago, Russia was on the brink to capture Kupiansk, was reaching Borova and Lyman and cutting the southern part of this direction in two parts.
A year later, the situation in Kupiansk barely changed, the city remains partly a grey zone, Ukraine took back some positions near Borova and launched a successful counter-offensive in Lyman, cutting the edge of Russian progression and fully securing Lyman.
▫️Right now, there is a stabilization on the southern part of this frontline, around Lyman. Ukrainian forces continue to consolidate their gains in the forests east of the city and will take up defensive positions for the winter on the Zherebets river.
▫️Further north, largely unnoticed actions happened around Borova (and east of it). Further proofs are needed, but it seems Ukraine advanced slowly and took back multiple positions.
The front across the Oskil river was the most successful one for Ukraine this year, from Lyman to Kupiansk. A year ago, Russia was on the brink to capture Kupiansk, was reaching Borova and Lyman and cutting the southern part of this direction in two parts.
A year later, the situation in Kupiansk barely changed, the city remains partly a grey zone, Ukraine took back some positions near Borova and launched a successful counter-offensive in Lyman, cutting the edge of Russian progression and fully securing Lyman.
▫️Right now, there is a stabilization on the southern part of this frontline, around Lyman. Ukrainian forces continue to consolidate their gains in the forests east of the city and will take up defensive positions for the winter on the Zherebets river.
▫️Further north, largely unnoticed actions happened around Borova (and east of it). Further proofs are needed, but it seems Ukraine advanced slowly and took back multiple positions.
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▫️Finally, the situation is more difficult near Kupiansk, but the operation inside tunnels north of the city stopped the flow of infiltrators, while most of the city and the eastern part of it remains a grey zone.
Thus, the situation largely improved in 2026 in this direction, I'm expecting further offensive operations, particularly north of Borova next year to push back the Russians from Kupiansk.
Thus, the situation largely improved in 2026 in this direction, I'm expecting further offensive operations, particularly north of Borova next year to push back the Russians from Kupiansk.
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Some key statistics regarding the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺 in October 2026:
▫️58% of the assaults directions are "undefined", those are Ukrainian attacks (which are now more numerous)
▫️52% of all Russian assaults happened in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka directions
▫️Russia conquered 51 km2 this month (highest since April 2026).
▫️Ukraine reportedly hit 54,200 Russian soldiers. This is not totally impossible, since the USF reported 16k hits on soldiers and SBU Alpha unit 2k KIA per week (reaching 3k this week!)
▫️Russia launched 5,736 drones (probably closer to 7,000), of which 907 were not intercepted (probably closer to 1,200)
▫️Russia launched 115 missiles, of which 66 were reportedly intercepted (probably more launches)
▫️Russia launched 8,249 KAB bombs, less than the previous month
▫️Russia claimed they downed 19,000 Ukrainian drones (probably a lot less)
▫️Russia is launching ~9,200 FPV drones a day and 2,600 (around 8k shells a day) artillery barrages a day on average.
▫️All sources reported a massive use of manpower on Russian side this month and heavy losses, higher than usual (SBS, GSUA, individual units, experts and some contacts all confirmed that)
▫️Russia's autumn offensive managed to enter Dobropilla and continues to put pressure east of Orikhiv, east of Sloviansk and in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast.
All the data quoted here was collected and gathered by t.me/m0nstas
▫️58% of the assaults directions are "undefined", those are Ukrainian attacks (which are now more numerous)
▫️52% of all Russian assaults happened in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka directions
▫️Russia conquered 51 km2 this month (highest since April 2026).
▫️Ukraine reportedly hit 54,200 Russian soldiers. This is not totally impossible, since the USF reported 16k hits on soldiers and SBU Alpha unit 2k KIA per week (reaching 3k this week!)
▫️Russia launched 5,736 drones (probably closer to 7,000), of which 907 were not intercepted (probably closer to 1,200)
▫️Russia launched 115 missiles, of which 66 were reportedly intercepted (probably more launches)
▫️Russia launched 8,249 KAB bombs, less than the previous month
▫️Russia claimed they downed 19,000 Ukrainian drones (probably a lot less)
▫️Russia is launching ~9,200 FPV drones a day and 2,600 (around 8k shells a day) artillery barrages a day on average.
▫️All sources reported a massive use of manpower on Russian side this month and heavy losses, higher than usual (SBS, GSUA, individual units, experts and some contacts all confirmed that)
▫️Russia's autumn offensive managed to enter Dobropilla and continues to put pressure east of Orikhiv, east of Sloviansk and in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast.
All the data quoted here was collected and gathered by t.me/m0nstas
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In the Caucasus, Armenians 🇦🇲 and Azerbaijanis 🇦🇿 continue to strengthen their positions along the "front line."
Negotiations regarding the demarcation of the shared border and a peace agreement are ongoing, though progress is quite slow. Azerbaijan continues to occupy a small portion of Armenian territory, while Armenia retains control over Azerbaijani enclaves.
I have observed the preparation of numerous new routes and positions in the mountains—a trend that has persisted since 2020.
🟠Armenian positions 🇦🇲
🟢Azerbaijani positions 🇦🇿
Negotiations regarding the demarcation of the shared border and a peace agreement are ongoing, though progress is quite slow. Azerbaijan continues to occupy a small portion of Armenian territory, while Armenia retains control over Azerbaijani enclaves.
I have observed the preparation of numerous new routes and positions in the mountains—a trend that has persisted since 2020.
🟠Armenian positions 🇦🇲
🟢Azerbaijani positions 🇦🇿
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Last month, Ukraine's 🇺🇦 USF grouping launched 151 499 strike missions and 104 106 recon missions, hitting a total of 64 807 targets.
I decided to compare the USF results with Rubikon Center numbers, Russia's 🇷🇺 main drone group (the only one publishing numbers). 80% of Rubikon's strikes are against all types of drones, while Ukrainian strikes are against multiple targets.
This comparison is useful to understand what drone force priority is for each side. It's worth noting that most of the Russian strikes are not done by Rubikon but by drone teams inside units. The same applies to Ukraine : the USF is not the only one doing strikes, every unit has its own drone company.
-> The USF hit 16 796 Russian soldiers last month, a third of the total claimed losses by Ukrainian forces. They claim to have killed 7 926 Russian soldiers.
I decided to compare the USF results with Rubikon Center numbers, Russia's 🇷🇺 main drone group (the only one publishing numbers). 80% of Rubikon's strikes are against all types of drones, while Ukrainian strikes are against multiple targets.
This comparison is useful to understand what drone force priority is for each side. It's worth noting that most of the Russian strikes are not done by Rubikon but by drone teams inside units. The same applies to Ukraine : the USF is not the only one doing strikes, every unit has its own drone company.
-> The USF hit 16 796 Russian soldiers last month, a third of the total claimed losses by Ukrainian forces. They claim to have killed 7 926 Russian soldiers.
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Last month, Russia 🇷🇺 launched thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦 (~7 000), of which approximately 1 000 hit their target
For now, I have 473 geolocated strikes on my database, around half of the total real number.
Above are is all the data I collected during October (it is still not complete but gives a good idea of what was attacked and when).
For now, I have 473 geolocated strikes on my database, around half of the total real number.
Above are is all the data I collected during October (it is still not complete but gives a good idea of what was attacked and when).
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