After a short break and strikes on Russian 🇷🇺 oil/fuel reserves in October (Rostov, Saint Petersburg, Samara), Ukraine 🇺🇦 hit 3 refineries in 3 days
The Samara, Ufa and Kstovo refineries were hit on October 30th, 31st and November 1st. Multiple fires were seen, which confirms that this operation was successful.
These successful strikes are very important to periodically stop multiple Russian refineries from working, which creates a fuel penury in Russia and fewer exportations, which means less money for the state.
The Samara, Ufa and Kstovo refineries were hit on October 30th, 31st and November 1st. Multiple fires were seen, which confirms that this operation was successful.
These successful strikes are very important to periodically stop multiple Russian refineries from working, which creates a fuel penury in Russia and fewer exportations, which means less money for the state.
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III- Situation on Oskil 🇺🇦 (eastern) front
The front across the Oskil river was the most successful one for Ukraine this year, from Lyman to Kupiansk. A year ago, Russia was on the brink to capture Kupiansk, was reaching Borova and Lyman and cutting the southern part of this direction in two parts.
A year later, the situation in Kupiansk barely changed, the city remains partly a grey zone, Ukraine took back some positions near Borova and launched a successful counter-offensive in Lyman, cutting the edge of Russian progression and fully securing Lyman.
▫️Right now, there is a stabilization on the southern part of this frontline, around Lyman. Ukrainian forces continue to consolidate their gains in the forests east of the city and will take up defensive positions for the winter on the Zherebets river.
▫️Further north, largely unnoticed actions happened around Borova (and east of it). Further proofs are needed, but it seems Ukraine advanced slowly and took back multiple positions.
The front across the Oskil river was the most successful one for Ukraine this year, from Lyman to Kupiansk. A year ago, Russia was on the brink to capture Kupiansk, was reaching Borova and Lyman and cutting the southern part of this direction in two parts.
A year later, the situation in Kupiansk barely changed, the city remains partly a grey zone, Ukraine took back some positions near Borova and launched a successful counter-offensive in Lyman, cutting the edge of Russian progression and fully securing Lyman.
▫️Right now, there is a stabilization on the southern part of this frontline, around Lyman. Ukrainian forces continue to consolidate their gains in the forests east of the city and will take up defensive positions for the winter on the Zherebets river.
▫️Further north, largely unnoticed actions happened around Borova (and east of it). Further proofs are needed, but it seems Ukraine advanced slowly and took back multiple positions.
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▫️Finally, the situation is more difficult near Kupiansk, but the operation inside tunnels north of the city stopped the flow of infiltrators, while most of the city and the eastern part of it remains a grey zone.
Thus, the situation largely improved in 2026 in this direction, I'm expecting further offensive operations, particularly north of Borova next year to push back the Russians from Kupiansk.
Thus, the situation largely improved in 2026 in this direction, I'm expecting further offensive operations, particularly north of Borova next year to push back the Russians from Kupiansk.
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Some key statistics regarding the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺 in October 2026:
▫️58% of the assaults directions are "undefined", those are Ukrainian attacks (which are now more numerous)
▫️52% of all Russian assaults happened in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka directions
▫️Russia conquered 51 km2 this month (highest since April 2026).
▫️Ukraine reportedly hit 54,200 Russian soldiers. This is not totally impossible, since the USF reported 16k hits on soldiers and SBU Alpha unit 2k KIA per week (reaching 3k this week!)
▫️Russia launched 5,736 drones (probably closer to 7,000), of which 907 were not intercepted (probably closer to 1,200)
▫️Russia launched 115 missiles, of which 66 were reportedly intercepted (probably more launches)
▫️Russia launched 8,249 KAB bombs, less than the previous month
▫️Russia claimed they downed 19,000 Ukrainian drones (probably a lot less)
▫️Russia is launching ~9,200 FPV drones a day and 2,600 (around 8k shells a day) artillery barrages a day on average.
▫️All sources reported a massive use of manpower on Russian side this month and heavy losses, higher than usual (SBS, GSUA, individual units, experts and some contacts all confirmed that)
▫️Russia's autumn offensive managed to enter Dobropilla and continues to put pressure east of Orikhiv, east of Sloviansk and in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast.
All the data quoted here was collected and gathered by t.me/m0nstas
▫️58% of the assaults directions are "undefined", those are Ukrainian attacks (which are now more numerous)
▫️52% of all Russian assaults happened in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka directions
▫️Russia conquered 51 km2 this month (highest since April 2026).
▫️Ukraine reportedly hit 54,200 Russian soldiers. This is not totally impossible, since the USF reported 16k hits on soldiers and SBU Alpha unit 2k KIA per week (reaching 3k this week!)
▫️Russia launched 5,736 drones (probably closer to 7,000), of which 907 were not intercepted (probably closer to 1,200)
▫️Russia launched 115 missiles, of which 66 were reportedly intercepted (probably more launches)
▫️Russia launched 8,249 KAB bombs, less than the previous month
▫️Russia claimed they downed 19,000 Ukrainian drones (probably a lot less)
▫️Russia is launching ~9,200 FPV drones a day and 2,600 (around 8k shells a day) artillery barrages a day on average.
▫️All sources reported a massive use of manpower on Russian side this month and heavy losses, higher than usual (SBS, GSUA, individual units, experts and some contacts all confirmed that)
▫️Russia's autumn offensive managed to enter Dobropilla and continues to put pressure east of Orikhiv, east of Sloviansk and in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast.
All the data quoted here was collected and gathered by t.me/m0nstas
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In the Caucasus, Armenians 🇦🇲 and Azerbaijanis 🇦🇿 continue to strengthen their positions along the "front line."
Negotiations regarding the demarcation of the shared border and a peace agreement are ongoing, though progress is quite slow. Azerbaijan continues to occupy a small portion of Armenian territory, while Armenia retains control over Azerbaijani enclaves.
I have observed the preparation of numerous new routes and positions in the mountains—a trend that has persisted since 2020.
🟠Armenian positions 🇦🇲
🟢Azerbaijani positions 🇦🇿
Negotiations regarding the demarcation of the shared border and a peace agreement are ongoing, though progress is quite slow. Azerbaijan continues to occupy a small portion of Armenian territory, while Armenia retains control over Azerbaijani enclaves.
I have observed the preparation of numerous new routes and positions in the mountains—a trend that has persisted since 2020.
🟠Armenian positions 🇦🇲
🟢Azerbaijani positions 🇦🇿
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Last month, Ukraine's 🇺🇦 USF grouping launched 151 499 strike missions and 104 106 recon missions, hitting a total of 64 807 targets.
I decided to compare the USF results with Rubikon Center numbers, Russia's 🇷🇺 main drone group (the only one publishing numbers). 80% of Rubikon's strikes are against all types of drones, while Ukrainian strikes are against multiple targets.
This comparison is useful to understand what drone force priority is for each side. It's worth noting that most of the Russian strikes are not done by Rubikon but by drone teams inside units. The same applies to Ukraine : the USF is not the only one doing strikes, every unit has its own drone company.
-> The USF hit 16 796 Russian soldiers last month, a third of the total claimed losses by Ukrainian forces. They claim to have killed 7 926 Russian soldiers.
I decided to compare the USF results with Rubikon Center numbers, Russia's 🇷🇺 main drone group (the only one publishing numbers). 80% of Rubikon's strikes are against all types of drones, while Ukrainian strikes are against multiple targets.
This comparison is useful to understand what drone force priority is for each side. It's worth noting that most of the Russian strikes are not done by Rubikon but by drone teams inside units. The same applies to Ukraine : the USF is not the only one doing strikes, every unit has its own drone company.
-> The USF hit 16 796 Russian soldiers last month, a third of the total claimed losses by Ukrainian forces. They claim to have killed 7 926 Russian soldiers.
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Last month, Russia 🇷🇺 launched thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦 (~7 000), of which approximately 1 000 hit their target
For now, I have 473 geolocated strikes on my database, around half of the total real number.
Above are is all the data I collected during October (it is still not complete but gives a good idea of what was attacked and when).
For now, I have 473 geolocated strikes on my database, around half of the total real number.
Above are is all the data I collected during October (it is still not complete but gives a good idea of what was attacked and when).
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