Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue to launch a large number of KAB guided bombs in the rear of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces in the Dobropilla direction

🔴Impacts from February to August 2026
⚪️Impacts in September 2026
🟡Impacts in October 2026

From what I am seeing, Russia is bombing a lot west of Drujkivka and Kramatorsk, which shows that they intend to push there. Most of the KAB strikes happen far from the frontline, always in front of the most advanced infiltrated soldiers.

In October, KAB impacts were recorded far from the frontline between Novodonetske and Kramatorsk.

My twitter account reached 140k followers 🎊🥂🍾

Update on Russia's 🇷🇺 strike campaign against Ukraine 🇺🇦 during the first 6 days of November

AMK gathered data regarding reported impacts during these last few days, which allows me to make this map.

You can see how hard Russia is attacking central Ukraine a lot.

In the last week, Ukraine 🇺🇦 hit 6 Russian 🇷🇺 refineries and one oil pumping station

The strike campaign started on October 30th in Samara, continued in Ufa, Kstovo, Yaroslavl, Ryazan and Krasnodar. Compared to earlier, it seems that many drones managed to go through, and multiple critical parts of these refineries may have been hit.

In general, it takes months for Russia to restart those, which is why Ukraine is following a turning strategy, hitting refineries that have been repaired.

-> Despite D. Trump's brokered energy ceasefire, both Ukraine and Russia didn't stop striking each other's energy facilities, with a notable increase of strikes recently.

Quick update on the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦

This year, the situation has improved significantly for Kyiv, both on the front line and in the overall organization of military affairs. Spring and early summer brought many Ukrainian successes, most notably two counteroffensives, one at Lyman and the other in the south, which delivered substantial results through the summer and into early autumn. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces managed to halt the Russian advance toward Zaporizhzhia and slow it in the Donbas. Russian operations to create a buffer zone along the border have achieved little, except in Kharkiv Oblast, where the Russian army has advanced in the east.

These successes have gone hand in hand with a reorganization of the army. The end of Syrskyi's command and the arrival of Drapatyi, who is highly regarded by the troops, have resolved some of the problems with command, corruption and the use of assault troops. The change has notably helped stabilize the situation in the Sloviansk direction.

Ukraine has also built up a large arsenal of drones this year capable of striking Russia's mid-range rear, driving up Russian losses. Russian forces now struggle to bring men up to the front line. They are losing tens of thousands of men every month counting killed, wounded and missing, with a symbolic record of 55,000 according to Ukrainian sources, a figure that cannot be verified. These mid-range strikes reach across all the occupied territories and complicate Russian logistics. Warehouses, ammunition depots, rear bases, supply routes, ports, airfields and energy infrastructure are targeted on a very regular basis.

Ukrainians have also developed new delivery systems for deep strikes inside Russia. They have hit Russian refineries more than 105 times, along with dozens of oil depots. The cost of the war for Russia has exploded this year, driven by soaring recruitment costs, the cost of Ukrainian strikes and a war that drags on. Moscow is facing a real recruitment problem, which it is trying to solve not through mobilization but by setting recruitment targets for each oblast.
That said, the situation is far from perfect for Ukraine. Russia keeps advancing in the Donbas by committing very large numbers of soldiers. Ukrainian forces are critically short of manpower and are still suffering too many losses. They are trying to compensate with more drones, including ground drones for logistics missions.

Ukraine also has an air defense problem. It can no longer intercept Russian missiles and lacks the means to shoot down every drone. This comes as the number of Russian strikes is skyrocketing with the development of new long-range systems, starting with the Geran family: Geran-2s that saturate air defenses, camera-guided Geran-4s that carry out precision strikes, and Geran-5s, the missile-drones that hit the country's rear every day. Russia has also developed other types of missiles launched from aircraft or helicopters, such as the Banderol, Onyx and Dan-T. At the same time, the number of ballistic and cruise missile strikes is surging while Ukraine runs short of interceptors.

As a result, Ukraine is facing a chaotic energy situation and has suffered heavy strikes on its road, maritime and rail logistics as well as its warehouses. Russia holds a clear advantage in this strike war, which weighs on the Ukrainian economy. This is where Ukraine is struggling the most: it lacks money and resources, its population keeps shrinking, and European funding hangs over it like a sword of Damocles.

In short, the situation on the front is far better for Ukraine than it has been over the past three years. Kyiv has partly stabilized the front, is conducting counteroffensives in several places and is killing a record number of Russian soldiers. This is deeply worrying for Russia, which can no longer advance and is focusing on deep strikes. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling badly with homeland air defense and is taking the full brunt of attrition on its civilian, industrial and energy assets in the rear. Unable for nearly five years to defeat the Ukrainian army militarily, Russia appears to be trying to force Ukraine to capitulate through massive strikes on its rear.

Support for Ukraine shows no sign of weakening, with European funding steadily replacing American funding. The war is obviously extremely costly for Ukraine, but it is also costly for Russia, which has been forced to cut spending on infrastructure, healthcare and education to cover the deficits caused by the war. The war is therefore likely to last.

Last night, Ukraine 🇺🇦 strucked the 7th Russian 🇷🇺 refinery in 9 days

By carrying out this intense campaign of strikes, the Ukrainians are going against D. Trump and his "energy ceasefire" proposal, all while Russia is bombing Ukrainian power plants on a daily basis.

Between 450,000 and 600,000 Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers killed in action during the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦?

Hackers have released data obtained from the Russian statistical agency, Rosstat, which categorizes deaths by type and assigns a specific code to each fatality. This data corroborates information previously provided by Mediazona and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSUA).

-> The data records 450,000 military deaths.
-> The current estimate stands at 504,000, and the figure could reach 550,000 to 600,000 by the end of the year
-> Data for 2026 is incomplete, as there is a time lag in the recording process

It is important to keep in mind that this figure of 450,000 to 600,000 deaths is only partial:
-> Those reported as missing are not included (according to the "I Want to Live" project, there are at least 220,000 such cases).
-> Foreign mercenaries, Ukrainians from occupied territories, and those who have sustained severe injuries or amputations are not accounted for

https://rosstat-leaks.com

Russia is pushing its offensive in the east at full throttle, suffering record-high casualties, a fact confirmed by all/my sources

Today, the Ukrainian "drone army" reported striking 809 Russian soldiers, 272 of whom were killed. This force is responsible for approximately one-third of Russia’s monthly losses. It is worth noting that there is a rigorous verification process in place: when a target is struck, command requires a follow-up drone overflight to confirm the outcome, which in turn earns points within the army's reward system.

For several weeks now, total Russian casualties have consistently hovered between 1,500 and 2,000 per day, with roughly one-third to one-half of these being fatalities (KIA). As it does every autumn, Russia is attempting to leverage the weather conditions to advance rapidly. However, this year there is less fog and a significantly higher number of drones. Furthermore, the loss of foliage makes it easier for the Ukrainians to spot Russian soldiers attempting to infiltrate.

And... another one. Last night, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces struck the 8th Russian 🇷🇺 refinery in 10 days, after multiple drones struck the Kirishi refinery

This campaign has been very successful these last few days and this is a severe blow to Russia's economy despite the "diesel deal"

Yesterday, Ukraine 🇺🇦 claimed to have eliminated (KIA + WIA) nearly 3 000 Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers

The Unmanned System Forces hit 809 Russians yesterday and it continues today, with 720. Every week, Ukraine's number one unit, SBU Alpha is eliminating 2 to 3 000 men.

All videos published by Ukrainian forces show massive losses for Russian forces, mainly due to FPV drones strikes. Based on Magyar, 70% of these losses are happening in the Dobropilla and Huliaipole directions, where Russia is on the offensive.

My information from the frontline 🇺🇦 today :

"It’s absolute hell. We’re tearing them apart, honestly, the pounding they’re taking is something we've rarely seen. We don't wait them to attack us, over a stretch of 25–35 km, we’re hitting everything in sight."

In both the Dobropilla and Huliaipole directions (red squares), Russia is on the offensive, using all the human ressource available. On yellow areas, Ukraine still has the initiative and on the grey area, the situation is more or less stable.

70% of Russian losses infilcted by the drone forces these last few days (600 to 800 soldiers eliminated a day) is happening in the red squares.

The Rosstat leak appears to be real, with many examples matching with Mediazona's known losses

In total, 389 719 deaths have a location near the front and despite what many said, the errors are not numerous, as seen on the map.

Now, multiple media outlets will work woth the raw data and we will need to wait to have all of it, but some trends are already interesting :

▫️128 000 deaths in 2024 (108k on Mediazona)
▫️186 000 deaths in 2025 (90k on Mediazona)
▫️45 000 Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers died in in Pokrovsk

@M0nstas gathered the data. Don't argue with me about the fact the leak is real or not : we have all the proofs it is a real leak, the only issue is that Rosstat classified some random civilians as military deaths, which can be corrected.

Since I’ve been asked to be serious, let’s elevate the discussion a bit with some figures:

◻️There is indeed a decrease in Russian 🇷🇺 assaults—down from 150 attacks per day to an average of about 80. However, there are several reasons for this: the Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are striking at increasingly greater distances, and the Russians are losing more men while attempting to reach their front-line positions than they are during the actual attacks.
▫️70% of assaults are now carried out by the Ukrainians, who are currently on the offensive in three directions; this also includes "clearing" operations against infiltrators, which are counted as assaults.
▫️Fewer assaults does not mean fewer casualties—quite the contrary. It indicates that the Russian army is no longer attacking everywhere and is making less progress. Last year, there were 150 daily assaults, and Russia was seizing 400 km² per month. This year, there are fewer assaults, yet they are capturing almost no territory—which shows that a significant portion of these assaults are failing.

◻️No report on the destruction of Ukrainian equipment suggests a 5:1 ratio; I would be curious to see the source and evidence for that. Let’s stick to the data from Oryx, which shows a 1:1.5 ratio (evidence provided in the comments).
▫️Now, does losing fewer vehicles mean fewer human casualties? Absolutely not—quite the opposite. We know that the Russians have withdrawn the majority of their armored vehicles from the front since the beginning of 2025. The Ukrainians, by contrast, have not; they continue to make extensive use of their MRAPs and APCs to transport their troops safely. ▫️It is all too easy to overlook the 12,000 to 15,000 unarmored vehicles (cars, motorcycles, quads, buggies, etc.) that Russia loses every month—a third of which are documented by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Being hit by an FPV drone while on a motorcycle or quad—an occurrence the UAF records 1,500 times a month—carries a high risk of injury or death; and that is not even counting the 3,500 to 4,000 light vehicles struck by the UAF each month.
▫️Furthermore, one might forget that these losses have grown exponentially since the shift away from the use of armored vehicles toward an infiltration-based strategy (beginning in early 2024). A quick five-minute look at *Mediazona* is enough to confirm this.

◻️Lastly, yes—the death toll is vastly higher than it was in Bakhmut; this is supported by all available evidence.
▫️In Bakhmut, the Ukrainians lost 11,000 men over 10 months, while the Russians lost at least 15,000. In the Pokrovsk sector, the Ukrainians have lost at least 15,000 to 20,000 men (though these figures remain incomplete), while the Russians have lost 40,000—a figure potentially corroborated by *Rosstat* data (though this remains to be confirmed). ▫️After spending a few minutes examining the charts detailing confirmed losses—on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides (with data for 2024 and 2025 still coming in)—we see that during the battle for Bakhmut in 2023, there were approximately 3,500 Ukrainian deaths per month; by late 2024 and early 2025, that figure had risen to nearly 6,000 per month. On the Russian side, at the height of the battle for Bakhmut, the toll was 5,000 deaths per month, compared to 10,000–12,000 per month in late 2024 and early 2025.

Now, let’s return to the point that has sparked some debate: my report—based on my own sources (FPV drone operators) and corroborated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), Ukrainian officials, and numerous experts—that Russian losses are significant.

I am providing here all the sourced data that helps explain how such an increase is possible.

Thank you all for following along.