Clément Molin
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French Analyst, following the war in Ukraine and other conflicts
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Forwarded from Омерзительная 8 (Q)
Противник продолжает дистанционное минирование подходов к Антоновскому мосту, как дорожного полотна, так и лесополок.
Л/с противника покидает позиции под Антоновским мостом на нашем берегу, ввиду ухудшения логистики, после ударов по мосту.
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Traduction : l'ennemi continue de miner à distance la zone entre le pont antonkvski et oleshky
🔹️pour ceux qui rejoignent, je suis d'abord sur Twitter (plus de 900 abonnés) mais face aux difficultés Telegram va devenir mon backup. C'est plus facile aussi de publier sur Telegram. 🔹️
Affrontements localisés à Marseille mais début de tensions à Paris avec une manifestation anti-flic
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Fin d'une nuit d'émeutes, propagation dans d'autres villes mais une ampleur en baisse. Réussite de la stratégie policière ? Essoufflement des pillages ?
Le sénat a acté une augmentation du nombre de véhicules commandés par la LPM
🔹️153 Blindés Griffon
🔹 17 Jaguar
🔹 325 Serval
🔹 10 Patrouilleurs hauturiers
🔹 2 Avions de transport A400M
De quoi augmenter les capacités notamment en transport aérien et en patrouille maritime.
Guterrez est a Haïti 🇭🇹 en visite officielle. Il a déploré le manque d'engagement de la communauté internationale contre la guerre des gangs en soutien a la police haïtienne.
Le pays est depuis quelques années dans une situation déplorable. Le Canada est l'un de ceux qui s'engagent le plus pour aider à trouver des solutions.
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Oleshky rive gauche du Dniepr

Frappe sur du personnel Russe
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Avancée Ukrainienne près du canal de Bakhmout
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La présentation de la situation en France par les médias anglo-saxons est tout de même très bizarre: on y voit un paix avec une police raciste au bord de la guerre civile. En Russie, en Iran et dans ls dictatures en générale, on profite de la situation pour condamner l'usage de la force à la française. Cette actualité a d'ailleurs pris le dessus sur celle de la guerre en Ukraine.

Petit rappel:

-USA, plus de 330 tueries de masse cette année. Un des pays où la police est réellement raciste et surtout où la répression contre les manifestations est forte.
-Royaume-Uni: on se rappelle bien de l'envoi de l'armée pour mater la rébellion irlandaise dans le sang.
-Russie/Chine/Iran: toute manifestation dans ces pays est déjà impossible, ensuite tout type d'émeutes finit très très mal. C'est quand même la Russie qui a employé ses avions de chasse sur son propre sol contre wagner.

Conclusion: c'est les pertes matérielles qui interpellent, et pas humaines. Un traitement médiatique très curieux!
Le raid a lyon ce soir.

De très importants moyens ont été déployés avec très peu de tensions actuellement.
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Frappe de drone Russe à Soumy (quartier résidentiel)
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Les Russes s'inquiètent de l'avancée ukrainienne sur les flancs de Bakhmout.
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S400 Russe détruit
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Bonjour / Hello

Après une longue absence, je vais revenir sur Telegram afin de poster la même chose que sur Twitter, il m'est assez facile de faire copier/coller des mes threads et cartes. Il y aura aussi ici des exclusivités.

After a long absence, I will return to Telegram to post the same thing as on Twitter, it is quite easy for me to copy/paste my threads and maps. There will also be some exclusivities.
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📍In May 2025, the Russian 🇷🇺 army achieved record advance in Ukraine 🇺🇦 and started faster in June. In Sumy, Lyman and in the south of Donetsk oblast, Moscow pushed back and isolated several fronts, but key cities are not yet threatened.

On this beautiful map made by @Pouletvolant3, we can see how much Russia progressed each month of 2025 in Ukraine. We can see 4 main directions, Kursk and Sumy, Lyman, Kostiantynivka and south of Pokrovsk.

To this chart, we can add this one by @Deepstate_UA showing that the month of May 2025 is the 3rd biggest in the last year and a half. We can note the February–March pause that I previously highlighted and the start of the new offensive in late April.

Since January 2025, the number of FAB bombardments by Russia has not ceased to grow, with around 150 every day (chart by @M0nstas).

The number of armoured assaults has slightly dropped, replaced by civilian vehicles. We can also see that in the number of losses, with fewer and fewer armoured vehicles and tanks lost compared to unarmored vehicles.

@M0nstas also gathered statistics from UA general staff claims of attacks: here, we can see that FPV drones are more and more important. He notes:
Artillery: 165,656 total, down to 5,300/day
FPVs: 90,478 total, up to 3,000/day
Bombs: 4,251 total, daily use down 20%
MLRS: 3,549 total, unchanged, scaled by necessity

Based on this chart by @konrad_muzyka, we can see that Russia is firing more and more drones at Ukraine every night. Around 150 are fired daily.

Russia and Ukraine are now using long fiber-optic drones that can reach 50 km behind the lines. This is a true game changer, because any vehicle of any type can be targeted from this distance, and the drone cannot be jammed.

The solution? Anti-drone nets to cover the main supply roads and artillery positions such as this one.

Since June 1st, we are already at 145 km² captured by Russia in only 4 days. This month is going to be the record of captured territory since months and the situation is worrying for the Ukrainian armed forces.

In Sumy, Russian forces continue to push across the border after pushing back Ukrainians from Kursk. This Russian border offensive is the second one after the first operation in Kharkiv in May 2024. It forces Ukrainian forces to maintain troops far from the current frontline.

@Playfra0 published a good thread on the Sumy situation today. Russians are following the topography and may be able to bomb Sumy if Yunakivka falls. Second map shows what is the possible objective.
🔗 https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1930590508377632991

In the Kharkiv oblast, Russian forces continue to push across the Oskil river to isolate Kupiansk. Ukrainian forces continue to prepare their large "New Donbass Line" in front of Izium, Shevchenkove, Chuhuiv and Kharkiv.

Russian army is trying to isolate Ukrainian forces in 3 different zones near the Oskil river:

Kupiansk – a city, easy to defend, few bridges, but vulnerable to the Oskil crossing north of it

Borova – one vulnerable bridge, difficult to defend

Lyman – large forest, multiple bridge opportunities, easier to defend

Additionally, the "New Donbass Line" is supported by former (yellow) and new (clear blue) defensive lines, while new defenses are being prepared on the light blue layers.

On this "New Donbass Line", Ukrainian forces continue to adopt their new trench strategy:
• Smaller and more numerous trenches
• Hidden in the woods
• Three-layered ditches with barbed wire (anti-infantry)
• Dragon teeth and wire – same strategy

In Donetsk oblast, Russian forces have made small progress near Bilohorivka and Chasiv Yar, but it is not yet enough to close in on Siversk, Kostiantynivka or Kramatorsk. Ukrainian defenders continue to prepare the four cities for defense.

Multiple small trenches have been highlighted on the new Donbass line, in every forest strip. A new ditch covers the area from Droujkivka to the Siverski Donets river, but there are no entrenched positions yet, so this is not a proper defensive line.
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South of it, between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, Russian forces continue to make progress northward. Ukrainian reinforcements managed to slow down the offensive, but the danger is still real. In Chasiv Yar and west of Kostiantynivka, Russian command will try to cut the city to avoid a long fight inside.

On the western Pokrovsk direction, the situation remains unchanged from the last months. Still no sign of entry into Dnipropetrovsk oblast, but slow and steady progress toward Novopavlivka.

To conclude, the Russian military advanced faster in May and appears to be accelerating further in June. Keep in mind that this remains relative to the size of Ukraine for the time being. More strikes, and a major innovation: the fiber-optic FPV drone capable of exceeding 40 km.

Thank you for reading this analysis, which took me around 7 hours to prepare (mapping trenches and frontline, gathering information, building maps, writing thread). I appreciate your support and comments.