@clement_molin
Russia is lacking critical drone air-defense. With no interceptor drone massively produced, Russia barely manages to shoot down some ukrainian FP-2 drones.

At the same time, with the air-defense genocide that happened in southern Ukraine this year, Russia is largely lacking ground bases AD.

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https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2058944587050156032%2Fimg%2FwFh_jaPeM7EjjXIJ.jpg
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@clement_molin
Also, those drones can be used at a shorter range to stop the reinforcement of a sector and close the access to some roads.

At the same time, multiple other drone teams are hitting closer to the frontline.
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@clement_molin
This strike campaign, coupled with the FP-2 strikes campaign in occupied Ukraine and long range strikes into Russia comes amid the largest difficulties on the frontline for Russia since 2023.

This month (5 days remaining), Russia took only 31 km2 !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLc1bGXMAAuHKZ.jpg
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@clement_molin
To undertand more deeply those numbers, here are the weekly counts for taken km2 by Russia this year (taken on the grey zone) and the lost km2 by Ukraine this year (to the grey zone).

We can clearly see the current frontline difficulties.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLdIFuXMAAHav4.png
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@clement_molin
These last few days, Russia is choosing the escalation strategy, using Oreshnyk and threatening to bomb decision centers in Kyiv.

This is a sign of weakness rather than a true show of force. If everything were going so well, the Russian army would be advancing on the front...
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@clement_molin
6 months have now happened since Pokrovsk, Siversk and Hulialpole fell and the russians have barely made any progress since then.

Ukraine is cleaning Stenohirsk and secured Pokrovsk'e and Dobropilla. Russia is still pushing in some directions, without the same successes as before...

Maps from @Deepstate_UA
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLeHmfWUAAtAnm.jpg https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLeN3vWgAAMdF3.jpg
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@clement_molin
Thank you for following this new thread. If you want to share the map, you HAVE to credit me with a link to my profile (it can be to Telegram if you post on Telegram) or my @.

Thank you for your understanding !
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLeqWKX0AA9VlR.jpg
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@clement_molin
Interestingly, Rybar is saying some things worth reading about the overall situation, especially with what is happening in Stepnohirsk :

📝Logistics Problems📝
Deeper Than They Seem

The situation in Russia's southern regions is becoming increasingly threatening. Since early May, Ukrainian forces have significantly increased the number of drone strikes against vehicles transporting various goods to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea. There is a risk of shortages of certain goods on the peninsula, and fuel sales are restricted.

The threat is not only the disruption of the Crimean holiday season or the shortage of certain products on the peninsula. Strikes against cargo carriers on the peninsula directly impact the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is already precarious.

🔻What's happening on the front?

➡️The enemy has been attacking the Kamenskoye area for a long time and has managed to advance in several areas, pushing back Russian forces: Stepnogorsk and Plavni have been nearly lost, along with virtually all territorial gains made by the Russian Armed Forces during the offensive that began in early 2025.

➡️There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo but also launch an offensive along the Kamenskoye-Shcherbaki line. Indirect signs indicate that the problems in this area have been addressed, but the situation remains difficult.

➡️Ukrainian drone operators have significantly increased their activity in strikes against Kamenka-Dniprovska, Vodyane, and Enerhodar. Every 20-30 minutes, local public groups report dozens of drone attacks on the city. There have been casualties among the local population. Employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are also becoming targets, as officially reported by the company's resources.

➡️This may indicate that the enemy is preparing, if not a full-scale landing, then a diversionary strike through the reeds at the bottom of the former Kakhovka Reservoir.

The loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cannot be allowed: dislodging even small enemy forces from there will be an extremely difficult task. Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces will be severely limited in their means of destruction, as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is not a target worth targeting with airstrikes.

❗️Considering that Ukrainian forces have already partially paralyzed the logistics of southern Russia in the land corridor to Crimea, it is not difficult to imagine what will happen if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to breach the Russian Armed Forces' defenses along the Kamenskoye-Shcherbaki line.

📌The Russian Armed Forces will have to deploy reinforcements along the route to Vasilyevka, the roads to which are already under frequent enemy attack. In the worst-case scenario, stabilizing the situation will require the deployment of additional forces via routes such as Tokmak and the more distant Berdyansk and Mariupol. Even the delivery of civilian cargo along these routes is already severely disrupted.

❓What can be done about this? The issue of organizing a "small sky" air defense system is clear and has been studied. It has also been discussed at the highest levels. The exponential increase in attacks after the May holidays is obvious, even though the roads were unsafe even before. Just in time for the beginning of May, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tested Hornets, and after the ceasefire, they began massive use, giving no respite to develop countermeasures.

t.me/rybar/80586
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJL8id0WoAAHaoz.jpg Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

Across the weekend, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to harass Russian 🇷🇺 logistics routes along the Azov Sea and in Donetsk

Ukrainian strikes are beginning to pose a problem for Moscow, whose advance on the front has[...]

slowed this year.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJLRI1vWkAAIzmo.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2058953236237701361#m
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@clement_molin
This morning, a continuous fid a videos from key roads in russian 🇷🇺 occupied territories allowed a large number of new geolocations.

I have now mapped 125 trucks hit on key roads, mostly in may, with more than 80 destroyed.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHJPTvKIWIAA1F1n.jpg
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