@clement_molin
And here is the checkpoint of Izvaryne on the russian border 48.292607, 39.913528.
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@clement_molin
Did Nikol Pashinyan save Armenia 🇦🇲 from disappearing?

One week before historic parliamentary elections in which he leads the polls, the outgoing prime minister defends his record.

Russian 🇷🇺 interference in the country has been increasing recently.

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️
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@clement_molin
In 2018, a popular uprising erupted in Armenia after President Serzh Sargsyan circumvented the constitution to secure his re-election as prime minister.

Riding the wave of the Velvet Revolution, Nikol Pashinyan arrived with a promise: to reduce corruption and the influence of the oligarchs.
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@clement_molin
The country's independence in 1991 came amidst pogroms and war with Azerbaijan. Backed by Moscow, Yerevan and the Nagorno-Karabakh separatists won the war and established the separatist Republic of Artsakh.

This republic encompassed the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the surrounding areas, historically home to approximately one million Azerbaijanis and Kurds, who were expelled and forced to live in overcrowded Baku for years. Azerbaijan was humiliated.
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@clement_molin
Presidents Robert Kocharyan (1998-2008) and Serge Sarkisian (2008-2018), both supported by Moscow, strengthened the Armenian oligarchy, while 700,000 to 1.3 million Armenians emigrated due to a lack of economic prospects.
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@clement_molin
These oligarchs have woven a network that extends into the political sphere. Here are the main ones and their positions:

🔹G. Tsaroukyan: Cement, casinos, gas | Opportunistic opponent | Pro-Russian
🔹S. Karapetyan: Armenian electricity, real estate | Financier of the former regime | Pawn of the Kremlin
🔹S. Aleksanyan: Imports, supermarkets | Allied with Pashinyan | Pragmatic (Business first)
🔹R. Vardanyan: Former banker, former Karabakh minister | Opponent (detained in Baku) | Independent / Abandoned by Moscow
🔹Former regime (Hayrapetyan/Bagdasarov): Oil, tobacco | Deposed and prosecuted | Pro-Russian (exiled in Moscow)
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@clement_molin
Between 1993 and 2020, Armenia stagnated, power was indirectly controlled by oligarchs who became increasingly self-serving, and the country neither developed nor built much, particularly in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan developed rapidly, thanks to Caspian gas and its geopolitical position. The country grew wealthy, its population exploded, and its army was strengthened by Israel and Turkey.
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@clement_molin
In 2020, the Armenian army and the separatists were humiliated during the 44-day war. Azerbaijani forces seized Shusha, and Pashinyan was forced to cede control of the Nagorno-Karabakh territories to Baku, in a show of support from Moscow.
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@clement_molin
This defeat is not Pashinyan's fault. 5,000 young Armenians lost their lives fighting a superior Azerbaijani army.

The blame should rightfully be placed on the previous leaders who did nothing to strengthen the army and develop the country. At the end of November, Pashinyan withdrew the bulk of the nearly encircled Armenian army, leaving the separatists alone.
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@clement_molin
Azerbaijan attacked because Moscow did nothing, choosing instead to punish the revolution and Pashinyan's pro-Western shift.

Russian peacekeepers are deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh, but do not intervene, both during the blockade and until the ethnic cleansing at the end of 2023.
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@clement_molin
Armenia was completely surrounded. On both sides, by Azerbaijan; to the west and east, to the west by Turkiye, which supported Baku; to the north, by a passive Georgia; and to the south, by a pariah Iran.

Furthermore, Armenia had no foreign military support at the time, as most states refused to support what they considered the occupation of territory internationally recognized by Yerevan.
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