A Korean exchange just accidentally made hundreds of users millionaires 🤣

🎁 Bithumb meant to credit people with 2,000 KRW, about $1.5, as a random box reward. But the employee responsible for giveaway typed "BTC" instead. Hundreds of users got 2,000 BTC. That’s over $130 million each.

Some didn’t hesitate for a second and market-dumped the “gift.” As a result BTC on Bithumb traded about 10% below global prices while it happened 📉

@Coin_Post

BTC just printed one of the cleanest V-shaped reversals I’ve ever seen 🩸

An 18.88% daily green candle straight off the 60k lows. Late shorts got absolutely punished, no mercy.

🕯 Volatility over the last few days has been unreal. This is the worst possible environment to trade with leverage. You can be right on direction for the week or the month and still get liquidated ten times over by violent swings both ways before you ever get there.

😱 Moves like this are rare. We’re talking daily BTC returns that fall into >4.5 sigma territory. Extreme, statistically abnormal behavior. I’ll explain what that actually means in the next post.

@Coin_Post

What Is a Sigma in Bitcoin? 📊

Bitcoin’s daily moves cluster around a typical range. Most days are small, some are large, and very-very few are extreme. Sigma (σ) is the unit used to describe how far a single day’s move sits from normal daily volatility.

🧮 Think of sigma as a volatility ruler. A 1σ day is a normal trading day. A 2σ day is uncommon. A 3σ day is rare and usually tied to a clear shock. Anything above that falls into tail-event territory.

Using recent data, Bitcoin’s typical daily volatility is a little over 3%. That makes moves near 10% already extreme. Moves well beyond that are statistically abnormal, regardless of direction.

🔽 Yesterday’s -15% daily drop qualifies as an insane deep tail move.

🔼 Today’s +19.5% green candle is even more extreme, landing near the far end of the distribution.

These high-sigma moves tend to coincide with stress in options markets. During the selloff, demand for downside protection surged as traders bought puts aggressively. That repricing of options pushed implied volatility toward levels last seen during major dislocations such as the FTX collapse 🎎

Sigma value does not tell you whether price will reverse or continue to dump/pump. It tells you how unusual the move is relative to recent history.

🤔 However, you can use historical price performance to predict how much BTC will rebound after a >3.5σ crash. On average, BTC has traded 15% higher 30 days after such bottom.

#FAQ

Buying the bottom 🔍

So yes, we’re in a bear market. That part is obvious now. Back in November it wasn’t but I kept pushing caution. Tried to explain that the closer you get to the end of a bull market, the less risk you should be taking. Most people do the opposite.

😊 One piece of good news. This bear market has already been running for about 124 days since the October 6 ATH.

So far, the 4-year BTC cycle theory is still holding up. This year is about finding the bottom. Later, I'll make a series of posts about it and show some indicators and my own reads to help navigate the downtrend.

🗓 Historically, BTC bear markets are brutal. Average drawdowns are over 75%. But each cycle hurts a bit less as Bitcoin grows. Roughly 93% → 87% → 84% → 75%.

If we assume the same logic applies again, with more institutional money and a larger holder base, the bottom likely comes with a smaller drawdown than last cycle. Say from -50% to -70% from ATH. That puts the lowest price somewhere between 60k and 37k.

Also, bear markets usually last about a year, around 365 days. If history keeps rhyming, this one probably grinds into fall 2026. That’s the window where bottoms are usually made 🤔

part 1/2

Assuming you agree with the previous post's premise that this bear market will resemble previous ones in terms of % drop and duration, here is a chart showing the ideal zone to accumulate BTC. And yeah, the cleanest way to build a position in a bear market is boring DCA 🤷‍♀️

If you think BTC bottoms somewhere inside the green box, the goal isn’t to nail the exact low. Pick the total amount of BTC you want to own, split it into 10, 20, maybe 30 pieces, and place limit orders step by step lower. Build a net. As price drops, it fills you automatically instead of forcing decisions in panic.

🐻 A few things people forget every cycle:

🔴Most people don't buy the bottom. Just like almost nobody sells the top. Waiting for perfection usually means missing the move.

🔴Bear markets don’t bottom in a single dramatic candle. They bottom in boredom. Weeks or months of flat, ugly price action. People stop caring. BTC is “dead.” No one wants to buy. Then price leaves and never comes back.

🔴The market hits bottom when sellers stop selling, not when there are a lot of buyers. The biggest sellers should be exhausted, and late buyers should capitulate and realize their losses.

🔴The biggest pumps occur in bear markets. This may seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Even if you perfectly predict the market bottom, there will be many huge dead cat bounces and opportunities to get liquidated with a leveraged short.

🔴Right near the bottom, there’s always a crowd calling for lower. I remember how last cycle at 16–17k, so many people were convinced 12k was coming. After a massive drawdown from ATH, waiting for one more leg down is bad r/r.

part 2/2

@Coin_Post

How to Use the RCI Ribbon Indicator + BTC analysis 🔍

The RCI Ribbon indicator plots 3 Rank Correlation Index lines with different lookback lengths to show whether price direction is aligned across timeframes. It is not a momentum indicator in the usual sense. It measures how consistently prices are ordered in one direction over time.

📊 RCI works by ranking prices within a lookback window and comparing that ranking to time order. If prices are steadily rising or falling, the correlation is high. If price ordering is mixed, the correlation drops.

The ribbon uses 3 RCIs together:
⏺The short RCI (blue) reacts fastest and reflects short-term directional changes.
⏺The middle RCI (red) represents the medium-term structure.
⏺The long RCI (green) reflects the dominant long-term trend.

When all 3 lines align, price direction is consistent across timeframes. When they diverge, short-term movement is fighting the higher-timeframe structure. This is why the ribbon is best used on higher timeframes like 1w or 1m.

🟠 On the monthly Bitcoin chart, the RCI Ribbon has shown a repeating bear market pattern. In the last 3 bear markets, the long RCI (green) crossing above the middle RCI (red) marked the middle phase of the bear (I marked each with vertical red line). This same crossover occurred again recently.

After that crossover in prior cycles, Bitcoin dropped another 50% or more each time. This does not guarantee the same outcome now, but keep it in mind.

The actual bottoms in previous bear markets appeared later. Each time, the short RCI (blue) reversed sharply upward from deeply negative levels. Only after that sustained turn did Bitcoin transition into a bull market (I marked each with yellow vertical line).

🤔 Right now, the long-term structure has shifted, but the short RCI has not yet shown a confirmed reversal. Based on prior cycles, the RCI Ribbon suggests patience!

#FAQ

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💬 Leave a comment if you like this type of content

BTC has fallen only 50% from its ATH, and we are already seeing weekly publications claiming that Bitcoin is dead 🤣

This is a tradition of every bear cycle. If you had bought $100 worth of BTC every time you saw the media declare Bitcoin dead, you would have $29.2 million today.

📝 As a tradition, the author of FT articles has been talking about Bitcoin's death since 2015, when it was at $300, and recently published new piece called “Bitcoin is still about $70,000 too high”.

There is a cool website called “Bitcoin is Dead” where you can track all the claims from mass media, financial analysts, economists, and all kinds of famous people 💀

@Coin_Post

What Is Long Term Holder Realized Price 📊

The Long Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price is the average price at which long-term Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. It only includes coins that have not moved onchain for more than 155 days.

Because these holders transact infrequently, their cost basis tends to move slowly. That makes the LTH realized price a useful reference for where long-term conviction is concentrated.

🗓 Historically, during bear markets, price revisits the LTH realized price. In multiple cycles, this level acted as a zone where long-term holders absorbed supply.

In every prior Bitcoin bear market, the final bottom occurred after price fell roughly 15% below the LTH realized price (green line). That move coincided with maximum stress before accumulation resumed 🛒

There is no requirement for the same pattern to repeat this time. Market structure changes over time, and no level guarantees a reversal. However, if you think historical behavior remains relevant, a 15% drop below the current LTH realized price would place Bitcoin near $35k 📉

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

A 70,000,000% Return on a Domain Name 😐

In 1993, a 10-year-old kid in Malaysia bought ai. com domain for $100 using his mom’s credit card. She was pissed. He didn’t care. The letters matched his initials: Arsyan Ismail.

Thirty-two years later, he sold that same domain for $70 million!

💸 The buyer was Kris Marszalek, CEO of crypto. com. The deal quietly closed in April 2025, then stayed under wraps while the team built on it. It’s now the largest publicly known domain sale ever, and ai. com just debuted as a personal AI agent app during the Super Bowl.

In an interview, Arsyan’s advice after pulling off a 700,000x flip was simple: don’t over-negotiate with a billionaire. You might talk yourself out of the deal.

@Coin_Post

Wall Street’s biggest bank is invested in crypto 🏦

Goldman Sachs disclosed today about $2.36B in crypto exposure. Roughly $1.1B in BTC, $1B in ETH, $153M in XRP, and $108M in SOL.

🤏 That’s only about 0.33% of their portfolio. Small on purpose. Institutions never go all-in on day one. They start small, see what actually works, and only scale once the system proves it can handle real money.

@Coin_Post

BlackRock buys $UNI, but it still dumps 24.7% after the initial pump 😱

BlackRock is integrating its tokenized Treasury fund BUIDL with Uniswap via UniswapX and Securitize. They also disclosed a strategic investment that includes UNI. First known DeFi token on their balance sheet.

UNI pumped 40% on the headline. Then retraced almost the entire move in a few hours.

🤔 If your chart looks like this after the largest asset management company in the world buys your token, what’s left as a catalyst? Fee switch and their own chain are in the past...

Altcoins are truly doomed, the only remaining use case is musical chairs with high volatility, where people get wiped out on perps all year long 📉

What's more interesting is that BlackRock is obviously preparing for creation of borrowable onchain collateral in the form of tokenized stocks and ETFs, to enable leverage loops and all kinds of financial engineering 🤔

@Coin_Post

What Is the World Uncertainty Index 👀

The World Uncertainty Index measures how frequently uncertainty-related terms appear in country economic reports. It is calculated by scanning Economist Intelligence Unit reports and counting references to uncertainty, then standardizing the data across countries and time.

🌍 The index is GDP-weighted and published quarterly. That means larger economies influence the reading more than smaller ones. The goal is to capture macro-level policy, economic, and geopolitical uncertainty rather than market volatility alone.

Spikes in the index historically align with major global shocks. It surged around 9/11, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and again during Covid.

📈 Right now, the index has reached an all-time high. That indicates an unusually elevated level of global macro uncertainty.

This does not predict market direction. It measures the intensity of uncertainty embedded in global economic reporting

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

How P/E Ratio Affects Your Future Returns in Equities 📊

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) measures how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. It is calculated as price divided by earnings per share. If a stock trades at $100 and earns $5 per share, its P/E is 20.

🔍 For the S&P 500, the same logic applies at the index level. The trailing P/E uses earnings from the last 12 months. The forward P/E uses expected earnings over the next 12 months, based on analyst estimates. Forward P/E reflects what investors are willing to pay today for projected profits.

Historically, valuation has had a strong relationship with long-term returns. When investors buy the S&P 500 at low forward P/E levels, subsequent 10-year annualized returns have tended to be high. When they buy at high forward P/E levels, long-term returns have been much lower, sometimes negative.

🗓 The historical data show a clear negative relationship between forward P/E and future 10-year returns. At a forward P/E around 22, which is roughly where the S&P 500 trades today, past observations imply average annual returns near 2% over the next decade.

That level of return is barely above zero in real terms and can fall below inflation depending on the macro backdrop. High starting valuations compress the probability of strong long-term outcomes because more future growth is already priced in.

🧠 Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can deviate from historical patterns for extended periods. BUT, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

#FAQ

Netherlands Passes 36% Tax on Unrealized Gains 🇳🇱

The Dutch House has approved legislation that will tax investors 36% on annual gains, even if they never sell the asset. Not on realized profits. On paper gains.

Starting January 1, 2028, the Netherlands will tax any annual return. Each calendar year, the tax authority compares the value of your assets on January 1 and December 31. Any increase in value is treated as taxable income, even if you didn’t sell. You then owe about 36% on that paper gain when filing your tax return the following year 🗓

It's a cartoonishly evil fiscal policy and the deliberate nail in the coffin of an already decaying system:

🤔 Take a simple example. You invest $10,000 in a super stock market and it compounds at 15% per year for 30 years without going down (dream scenario). In a normal system where gains are taxed only when realized, that grows to about $662,000. Now apply a 36% tax on gains at the end of every year. Your effective growth rate drops to roughly 9.6%. After 30 years, you end up with around $157,000. More than half a million dollars erased.

🤔 Now a more realistic scenario. You invest $100,000 into a biggest Dutch company: ASML. It doubles in a year. You now have $100,000 in paper gains. The government wants $36,000. You either sell part of your position or pay from your own cash.

Let's say you are diamond hands holder and pay the tax from your pocket. Next year the ASML stock drops 40%. Your $200,000 becomes $120,000. You started with $100,000 and already paid $36,000 in tax. Despite the stock still being above your entry, you are effectively down $16,000 without selling a single share.

😠 Why do people invest? Because if they leave money in the bank, inflation destroys it. Inflation punishes saving. But, an unrealized gains tax punishes investing. So the system punishes people for saving instead of spending, and also punishes them for investing. That’s how you suffocate capital formation.

@Coin_Post

In the last 8 trading days, at least 115 S&P 500 stocks have dropped 7% or more in a single session.

🤔 And yet the SPX is still sitting just 2.6% below its all-time high.

📆 The last time we saw this kind of internal damage while the index was still near the highs was late in the dot-com bubble. Breadth weakened first. The index held up. Then it didn’t.

Historically, when this breadth threshold was triggered, the average maximum drawdown that followed was around -34%.

🔍 The reason the index looks calm today is concentration. In 2000, the top 10 stocks made up about 26% of the S&P 500. Today they are closer to 37%. A small group of mega-cap names can offset widespread weakness underneath.

I can't say things like, "we will crash just like that time," because back in 2000, that concentration was built on unprofitable growth stories and extreme speculation. Today’s leaders are highly profitable, cash-generative, and structurally dominant businesses 💸

@Coin_Post

Polymarket launched 5-minute prediction markets 🎰

Just so we’re clear, your chances of making money in this kind of short-term binary game are worse than roulette.

🎰 At least at a casino you don’t pretend you can “read” the wheel. Here people stare at a 1-second chart and convince themselves they can predict short-term price movements. In fact, the chart makes chances of most traders here even lower than 50% because of their psychology and same reasons why most retail traders fail.

I’ve already seen tweets saying you only need to be right 17 times in a row to turn $10 into a million. Let’s run it:

🧮 If each bet is basically 50/50, then:

P = (0.5)^17
P = 1 / 131,072
P ≈ 0.0000076%

So you’d need about 131,000 attempts on average to expect one 17-win streak.

Don't gamble 🙅‍♂️

@Coin_Post

What Is the Hindenburg Indicator 📊

The Hindenburg Omen is a market breadth divergence signal. It triggers when a large number of stocks are making new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows at the same time while the overall index is still elevated. That combination means the index looks strong, but many stocks are already breaking down.

Normally, when the market is strong, most stocks move in the same direction. You see many new highs and very few new lows. When both start increasing together, it shows conflict inside the market.

📊 That internal split matters because cap-weighted indices can stay near highs even if a large portion of stocks are weakening. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the standard S&P 500 this year by the largest margin since 1992. That tells you large caps like Nvidia or Apple are not carrying the market the way they usually do.

Look at the chart. Over the last 9 years, Hindenburg signals have appeared near major local peaks with a very high hit rate. The red dots cluster before bear markets.

🚨 Recently, several new signals have triggered again. This does not guarantee a crash, BUT, it means internal conditions resemble prior periods that preceded weakness.

To me, this is one of many factors indicating an upcoming correction and supporting my bearish bias.

#FAQ

@Coin_Post