Back in November I wrote that it was a handful of AI megacaps dragging the whole S&P 500 index higher. That story is shifting 😮

Megacaps used to command premium multiples because they were asset-light and didn’t need massive reinvestment. Now Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google are spending hundreds of billions on data centers to stay competitive in AI. That’s capital intensity closer to manufacturing than software.

Those four names are about 20% of the S&P 500. They’ve already fallen 10–15% in a few weeks as markets digest how to price this infinite capital expenditure with unclear ROI. If returns compress, they won't trade like high-margin software businesses 📉

Market sees two outcomes: Either AI was overhyped and this spending wave was a misallocation that forces lower multiples and drags indexes down. Or AI truly disrupts everything, from software to white-collar jobs, triggering deflationary pressure and recession. That’s not bullish for equities either.

And the data reflects this. Right now, the S&P 500 is having its worst relative year vs All Country World Index ex-US since 1995. Meanwhile, the equal-weight S&P 500 is outperforming the cap-weighted index by the widest margin since 1976.

📈 That means the average stock is holding up better than the giants I listed above. When leadership weakens and leadership is >20% of the index, it goes down.

@Coin_Post

What is Bitcoin Short-Term Sharpe Ratio 📊

The Sharpe ratio measures return relative to volatility. It is calculated as excess return divided by standard deviation of returns. In simple terms, it tells you how much return you are getting per unit of risk.

🕯 A short-term Sharpe ratio applies that formula over a short lookback window. When the ratio is high, price has been rising efficiently relative to volatility. When it turns deeply negative, price has fallen sharply relative to recent volatility.

Extreme negative readings usually appear during panic phases. In prior cycles, deeply negative short-term Sharpe values aligned with bottoms. These were periods where risk-adjusted returns were so compressed that forced selling had likely already occurred.

🔍 Right now, the short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped to a level historically associated with generational buying zones. Similar readings were seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022, near important cycle lows.

That does not mean the bottom is confirmed. The Sharpe ratio measures short-term risk-adjusted stress, not macro structure or cycle timing. Other high-timeframe indicators still suggest broader bottoming conditions may not be complete ‼️

#FAQ

@Coin_Post

The Fed Is in a Tight Spot 😱

US real GDP for Q4 printed at 1.4% annualized quarter-over-quarter, well below the 3% pace markets were expecting.

📊 At the same time, inflation moved higher. Headline PCE rose 2.9% YoY, and Core PCE came in at 3.0% YoY, both ticking up and marking the highest readings since early 2024.

So now the problem for the Fed is that the economy is losing momentum, but inflation is still running above target.

🤔 If they cut rates to support the economy, they risk reigniting price pressures. If they keep rates elevated to fight inflation, they risk deepening the slowdown and Trump will be furious!

@Coin_Post

Trump promised to impose new tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that he overstepped his authority when using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad emergency-based tariffs. The Court said IEEPA does not give the president unlimited power to set sweeping global tariffs 🤔

That means many of the “reciprocal” and fentanyl-related tariffs were struck down. Markets reacted immediately, pricing in a lower effective tariff rate. It may sound like a clean win for Trump’s opponents. It’s not that simple.

Tariffs imposed under other laws, including Section 232 and Section 301, remain in full force. And just now, Trump announced a new move: a 10% global tariff on all countries 🌍

So yes, the Court limited one legal path. But the tariff policy itself is very much alive. From the outside, everything may seem chaotic, but their goal is simple: reduce the trade deficit and kick-start reindustrialization in the U.S. 🏭

@Coin_Post

Anthropic announced Claude Code Security, an AI-native tool embedded in Claude Code that scans full codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests patches. Cybersecurity stocks immediately sold off 🔽

Investors reacted to the idea that AI can now reason through code and surface complex security flaws inside the development workflow itself.

That directly pressures traditional SaaS security vendors whose core value was vulnerability detection and triage.

🤔 I've heard many opinions of people assuming that AI would boost these and other companies. Instead, they now have to compete with AI.

Expect the same dynamic across other industries. From digital artists to lawyers, doctors...

@Coin_Post

Easy $20 From Bybit for a $100 Deposit 💰

Bybit is running a promo. Deposit $100 and you can get $10 on Spot plus $10 in TradFi Credits.

✅ The first $10 task is only for users who registered but never made a deposit. The TradFi $10 task is open to everyone.

Here’s how to do it:

1️⃣Register on Bybit. Use this link to qualify for special rewards.

2️⃣Go to the Rewards Hub page.

3️⃣Activate both tasks shown in the screenshot above.

4️⃣Only after activating them, deposit more than $100 in USDT to your account.

5️⃣Then go to the TradFi page and activate TradFi trading for your account.

6️⃣Transfer in TradFi balance from main balance >100 USDT.

7️⃣Keep the funds in place until the task period ends so you can claim the rewards.

@Coin_Post

Is war between the US and Iran inevitable? 😐

There are more than 50,000 American soldiers positioned around Iran right now 🪖

Estimates suggest the current buildup represents roughly 40% of deployable U.S. air power. That’s comparable to the scale seen before the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq invasion. Historically, when the U.S. has assembled this level of force against a target, strikes always followed.

⚛️ The standoff centers on Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration is demanding near-zero uranium enrichment, limits on ballistic missiles, and a rollback of regional proxy support. Iran refuses what it views as total surrender of its nuclear rights but has floated temporary caps in exchange for sanctions relief.

Formal talks are scheduled in Geneva this week, described by U.S. officials as a last attempt to avoid military action. Trump has signaled he would consider a limited strike if negotiations fail, potentially followed by a broader campaign later in the year. Tehran has warned any attack would trigger a severe regional response.

📊 Traders on Polymarket now price the probability of U.S. strikes on Iran before March 31 at around 60%.

It is important to understand that since the current US strategy is to intimidate Iran, it is in their interest to prepare for military action as realistically and demonstratively as possible, even if they do not plan to carry it out.

However, I still don't think they will reach an agreement. At least, not for long. That is why I don't believe in bullish medium-term scenarios in the market.

@Coin_Post

Legacy Tech Is Getting Marked Down By AI 📉

Today IBM dropped more than 10% after Anthropic said Claude can streamline and modernize COBOL code. COBOL is the old programming language that runs a huge portion of legacy banking and government systems. IBM has long benefited from maintaining and upgrading that infrastructure.

This isn’t isolated. The Software as a Service sector has been in a bear market for months. The IGV ETF is down about 35% from its October high.

🔽 Recently, cybersecurity stocks were hit after Claude Code Security was announced with multiple key stocks dropping by >15% since.

At this point, a single AI model update from OpenAI or Anthropic can wipe 10% or more off a stock in a day of almost any company. Every update now forces investors to ask the same question: is this company about to become less necessary? 🤖

@Coin_Post

Which countries are the best for investing in crypto? 🌍

Even in places where crypto isn’t banned, tax policy can make investing or building a business either attractive or nearly impossible. Tax rates, holding rules, and income classification matter more than most people realize.

🗺 There’s a free project that tracks crypto taxation across 170 countries. It’s an interactive map where you can click on any jurisdiction and instantly see how gains are taxed, whether long-term holding helps, and what local rules apply.

The differences are extreme. Let's take 3 countries as an example:

🇩🇪 Germany is marked as crypto “paradise.” If you hold crypto for more than one year, capital gains are completely tax-free.

🇫🇷 France is far less friendly. It applies a 30% flat tax (the PFU) on crypto gains no matter how long you held.

🇯🇵 Japan is on the other end of the spectrum it's called "crypto tax hell". Crypto gains are treated as miscellaneous income and taxed at progressive rates up to 45%, plus an additional 10% local inhabitant tax.

You can explore the full interactive map here 🔍

@Coin_Post

China could attack Taiwan by 2027 🇹🇼

In closed door briefings, US national security and intelligence officials warned tech giants that China could invade Taiwan by 2027 and cut off the world’s chip lifeline.

📊 Taiwan produces about 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and up to 97% of leading edge chips. A blockade could put up to $10 trillion in global GDP at risk. Some projections show US output would fall 11%, worse than 2008, while China could lose around 16%.

The military warning first surfaced in Congress in 2021, when Indo Pacific Command said Beijing wants to be ready by 2027. Since then, CEOs from Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm have received classified CIA briefings. The message was blunt: even if war hurts China’s economy, that may not stop it.

🖥 Washington responded with about $50B in subsidies to rebuild domestic semiconductor manufacturing and followed with tariffs that in some cases reach 100%. Over $200B is now pledged for new US chip plants by 2030. Even so, US-made chips remain more expensive and often less advanced, and America may still control only around 10% of global capacity.

Chinese live fire drills are now surrounding Taiwan. If its factories shut down, most US tech companies have only a few months of inventory. After that, supply chains freeze, AI progress slows sharply, and the shock could push the global economy into a very deep crisis. Keep this in mind 🤷‍♀️

@Coin_Post

Dentists Drilled a €1.1B Hole in Their Own Pension 🦷

About 10,000 dentists in Berlin, Brandenburg and Bremen had roughly €2.2B sitting in their mandatory pension fund. Around €1.1B of it is now gone. Nearly half the fund has evaporated after years of aggressive investing.

💸 Instead of staying mostly in bonds and broad public markets, the fund shifted heavily into private credit, unlisted companies and real estate. More than 70% of assets were allocated to alternative bets. The portfolio ended up exposed to things like a plastic recycling startup, a shrimp farming project, hotels, resorts and struggling tech ventures.

Individually, none of these industries are insane. But inside a conservative retirement vehicle funded by mandatory contributions, the risk profile looks very different. What was supposed to be steady long-term wealth preservation turned into a private equity style gamble.

One smart billionaire once said, “I never let lawyers, doctors, or dentists into my investment deals. Complete nuisances, and all three think they're smarter than you.” 😁

This quote sums up what went wrong here quite well

How to Use Super Guppy to Buy Bottoms and Sell Tops 📈

Super Guppy is a visual trend tool built from two groups of EMAs. The fast group represents short-term traders. The slow group represents longer-term investors.

When the fast EMAs separate upward and the slow EMAs turn green and fan out, trend strength is building. When both groups compress and flip red, momentum shifts downward.

👉 The logic is simple. You buy when fast EMAs cross above slow EMAs and both groups expand in the same direction. You sell when fast EMAs roll over, cross below the slow group, and the ribbon turns red.

Look at the chart above. I marked major bullish shifts where the ribbon fully flipped and expanded with blue arrows. In each case, compression was followed by expansion, which preceded strong directional moves.

🔍 Super Guppy works best as a trend confirmation tool, not a prediction tool. It does not catch exact bottoms or tops. It confirms when a new trend has likely started after compression. Don't use this indicator on low time frames, use it for 1-day candles.

The simplicity is the advantage. Compression means indecision. Expansion with alignment means trend. You follow the expansion, not the noise inside the compression.

I personally use it, it helped me a lot to open big longs on BTC and HYPE back in April 2025. It's called "Super Guppy R1.0" on TradingView, free to use 📈

#FAQ