China could attack Taiwan by 2027 🇹🇼
In closed door briefings, US national security and intelligence officials warned tech giants that China could invade Taiwan by 2027 and cut off the world’s chip lifeline.
📊 Taiwan produces about 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and up to 97% of leading edge chips. A blockade could put up to $10 trillion in global GDP at risk. Some projections show US output would fall 11%, worse than 2008, while China could lose around 16%.
The military warning first surfaced in Congress in 2021, when Indo Pacific Command said Beijing wants to be ready by 2027. Since then, CEOs from Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm have received classified CIA briefings. The message was blunt: even if war hurts China’s economy, that may not stop it.
🖥 Washington responded with about $50B in subsidies to rebuild domestic semiconductor manufacturing and followed with tariffs that in some cases reach 100%. Over $200B is now pledged for new US chip plants by 2030. Even so, US-made chips remain more expensive and often less advanced, and America may still control only around 10% of global capacity.
Chinese live fire drills are now surrounding Taiwan. If its factories shut down, most US tech companies have only a few months of inventory. After that, supply chains freeze, AI progress slows sharply, and the shock could push the global economy into a very deep crisis. Keep this in mind🤷♀️
@Coin_Post
In closed door briefings, US national security and intelligence officials warned tech giants that China could invade Taiwan by 2027 and cut off the world’s chip lifeline.
The military warning first surfaced in Congress in 2021, when Indo Pacific Command said Beijing wants to be ready by 2027. Since then, CEOs from Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm have received classified CIA briefings. The message was blunt: even if war hurts China’s economy, that may not stop it.
Chinese live fire drills are now surrounding Taiwan. If its factories shut down, most US tech companies have only a few months of inventory. After that, supply chains freeze, AI progress slows sharply, and the shock could push the global economy into a very deep crisis. Keep this in mind
@Coin_Post
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Dentists Drilled a €1.1B Hole in Their Own Pension 🦷
About 10,000 dentists in Berlin, Brandenburg and Bremen had roughly €2.2B sitting in their mandatory pension fund. Around €1.1B of it is now gone. Nearly half the fund has evaporated after years of aggressive investing.
💸 Instead of staying mostly in bonds and broad public markets, the fund shifted heavily into private credit, unlisted companies and real estate. More than 70% of assets were allocated to alternative bets. The portfolio ended up exposed to things like a plastic recycling startup, a shrimp farming project, hotels, resorts and struggling tech ventures.
Individually, none of these industries are insane. But inside a conservative retirement vehicle funded by mandatory contributions, the risk profile looks very different. What was supposed to be steady long-term wealth preservation turned into a private equity style gamble.
One smart billionaire once said, “I never let lawyers, doctors, or dentists into my investment deals. Complete nuisances, and all three think they're smarter than you.”😁
This quote sums up what went wrong here quite well
About 10,000 dentists in Berlin, Brandenburg and Bremen had roughly €2.2B sitting in their mandatory pension fund. Around €1.1B of it is now gone. Nearly half the fund has evaporated after years of aggressive investing.
Individually, none of these industries are insane. But inside a conservative retirement vehicle funded by mandatory contributions, the risk profile looks very different. What was supposed to be steady long-term wealth preservation turned into a private equity style gamble.
One smart billionaire once said, “I never let lawyers, doctors, or dentists into my investment deals. Complete nuisances, and all three think they're smarter than you.”
This quote sums up what went wrong here quite well
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How to Use Super Guppy to Buy Bottoms and Sell Tops 📈
Super Guppy is a visual trend tool built from two groups of EMAs. The fast group represents short-term traders. The slow group represents longer-term investors.
When the fast EMAs separate upward and the slow EMAs turn green and fan out, trend strength is building. When both groups compress and flip red, momentum shifts downward.
👉 The logic is simple. You buy when fast EMAs cross above slow EMAs and both groups expand in the same direction. You sell when fast EMAs roll over, cross below the slow group, and the ribbon turns red.
Look at the chart above. I marked major bullish shifts where the ribbon fully flipped and expanded with blue arrows. In each case, compression was followed by expansion, which preceded strong directional moves.
🔍 Super Guppy works best as a trend confirmation tool, not a prediction tool. It does not catch exact bottoms or tops. It confirms when a new trend has likely started after compression. Don't use this indicator on low time frames, use it for 1-day candles.
The simplicity is the advantage. Compression means indecision. Expansion with alignment means trend. You follow the expansion, not the noise inside the compression.
I personally use it, it helped me a lot to open big longs on BTC and HYPE back in April 2025. It's called "Super Guppy R1.0" on TradingView, free to use📈
#FAQ
Super Guppy is a visual trend tool built from two groups of EMAs. The fast group represents short-term traders. The slow group represents longer-term investors.
When the fast EMAs separate upward and the slow EMAs turn green and fan out, trend strength is building. When both groups compress and flip red, momentum shifts downward.
Look at the chart above. I marked major bullish shifts where the ribbon fully flipped and expanded with blue arrows. In each case, compression was followed by expansion, which preceded strong directional moves.
The simplicity is the advantage. Compression means indecision. Expansion with alignment means trend. You follow the expansion, not the noise inside the compression.
I personally use it, it helped me a lot to open big longs on BTC and HYPE back in April 2025. It's called "Super Guppy R1.0" on TradingView, free to use
#FAQ
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Block Cuts Over 40% Of Staff, Stock Jumps 27% 😐
Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter and CEO of Block, just announced one of the largest layoffs in the company’s history. Block, the fintech company behind Square payments, Cash App and other financial services products, is cutting more than 4,000 employees, shrinking from over 10,000 people to under 6,000.
🤖 Dorsey says the business is strong. Gross profit is growing and profitability is improving. The reason for the cuts is AI. He wrote that new intelligence tools and smaller, flatter teams are changing how the company builds and operates, making many roles redundant.
In simple terms, AI allows Block to maintain or even grow the business with far fewer people. Lower costs, higher margins.
🔼 Markets responded immediately. Block stock jumped more than 27% after the announcement. AI removes jobs, investors reward the efficiency.
This is the early stage of something much bigger. Large companies are restructuring around AI and cutting thousands of white collar roles in a single decision. If this model spreads across finance, tech and services, the impact on office employment could be very severe😱
Could this trend lead to mass technological unemployment, the growth of unions, bans on AI, and other forms of Luddism? Share your thoughts in the comments👇 💬
@Coin_Post
Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter and CEO of Block, just announced one of the largest layoffs in the company’s history. Block, the fintech company behind Square payments, Cash App and other financial services products, is cutting more than 4,000 employees, shrinking from over 10,000 people to under 6,000.
In simple terms, AI allows Block to maintain or even grow the business with far fewer people. Lower costs, higher margins.
This is the early stage of something much bigger. Large companies are restructuring around AI and cutting thousands of white collar roles in a single decision. If this model spreads across finance, tech and services, the impact on office employment could be very severe
Could this trend lead to mass technological unemployment, the growth of unions, bans on AI, and other forms of Luddism? Share your thoughts in the comments
@Coin_Post
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US Strikes On Iran Look Imminent 😨
The US is urging its citizens to leave Israel immediately. Non-essential embassy staff have been authorized to depart. The ambassador told personnel to book flights anywhere they can, today.
🪖 IDF reservists are being called to air defense. Public shelters in Be’er Sheva are open. The USS Gerald R. Ford is off Israel’s coast. US Air Force assets have been spotted at Ben Gurion Airport. Embassy staff were evacuated from Baghdad.
Talks between Washington and Tehran ended without a deal. Further negotiations are scheduled, but gaps remain wide over uranium enrichment and sanctions.
Polymarket traders are now pricing roughly a 66% chance of US strikes on Iran by March 31📊
@Coin_Post
The US is urging its citizens to leave Israel immediately. Non-essential embassy staff have been authorized to depart. The ambassador told personnel to book flights anywhere they can, today.
Talks between Washington and Tehran ended without a deal. Further negotiations are scheduled, but gaps remain wide over uranium enrichment and sanctions.
Polymarket traders are now pricing roughly a 66% chance of US strikes on Iran by March 31
@Coin_Post
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Pentagon declares major AI company a national security risk 😐
Anthropic AI is an American AI company behind Claude AI. The US government wanted full, unrestricted access to its models for any lawful military purpose. That includes potential use in autonomous weapons systems and large-scale intelligence operations. Anthropic refused. They said their models should not be used for fully autonomous lethal systems or mass domestic surveillance.
The Defense Department gave the company a hard deadline to accept those terms. Anthropic held its ground, saying it would not remove its usage restrictions.
😱 Today, Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately stop using the company’s technology. He publicly accused the firm of putting ideology above national security:
Now Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has officially designated Anthropic a “supply-chain risk to national security.” Contractors working with the US military are barred from doing business with the company. A six-month transition period has been granted, after which the relationship is effectively over👋
We are living in historic times, when something huge happens almost every day...
@Coin_Post
Anthropic AI is an American AI company behind Claude AI. The US government wanted full, unrestricted access to its models for any lawful military purpose. That includes potential use in autonomous weapons systems and large-scale intelligence operations. Anthropic refused. They said their models should not be used for fully autonomous lethal systems or mass domestic surveillance.
The Defense Department gave the company a hard deadline to accept those terms. Anthropic held its ground, saying it would not remove its usage restrictions.
The Leftwing nut jobs at Anthropic have made a DISASTROUS MISTAKE trying to STRONG-ARM the Department of War, and force them to obey their Terms of Service instead of our Constitution.
Now Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has officially designated Anthropic a “supply-chain risk to national security.” Contractors working with the US military are barred from doing business with the company. A six-month transition period has been granted, after which the relationship is effectively over
We are living in historic times, when something huge happens almost every day...
@Coin_Post
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Trump launches Operation Epic Fury against Iran 💣
President Trump announced that the U.S. has begun what he called a “massive” campaign. The stated objective is to destroy Iran’s missile forces, missile industry, navy, nuclear program, and regional proxies. U.S. forces have already struck multiple Iranian naval bases in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
🇮🇱 At the same time, initial Israeli strikes reportedly targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian.
The conflict is expanding fast. Iran has launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.
🌍 It is turning into a regional war. The U.S. demands were never acceptable to Tehran, and the negotiations now look like a formality before escalation.
Expect oil prices to rise and equities and crypto to continue falling. So far BTC is down 3% to $64k🔽
President Trump announced that the U.S. has begun what he called a “massive” campaign. The stated objective is to destroy Iran’s missile forces, missile industry, navy, nuclear program, and regional proxies. U.S. forces have already struck multiple Iranian naval bases in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
The conflict is expanding fast. Iran has launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.
Expect oil prices to rise and equities and crypto to continue falling. So far BTC is down 3% to $64k
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Iran is firing missiles and launching drone strikes across the region. U.S. bases have been hit. Missiles were sent toward Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar 💣
There is footage of a drone striking near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Another shows a drone hitting a residential high-rise in Bahrain. This is no longer confined to military targets, it is terrorism. The cost asymmetry is obvious. A relatively cheap drone can cause massive real estate damage and crush tourism-driven GDP in cities like Dubai.
🛩 Israel says it carried out the largest airstrike in its history. Around 200 fighter jets dropped hundreds of munitions on roughly 500 targets inside Iran. At the same time, Saudi Arabia says it is ready to join the U.S., and Qatar is aligning with Washington.
Now the real question is whether this is a short exchange or the start of something much longer?
🤔 Trump has communicated an intention to fully dismantle Iran’s leadership and military capability and is openly talking about regime change.
Iran confirmed its Defense Minister and a Revolutionary Guard commander got killed, brushing it off by saying losing a few commanders is “not such a big problem.” There is still no confirmed information on whether their leader Khamenei survived. Israeli assessments say the chances are slim, but nothing official yet.
What is confirmed is that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers are piling up. Oil majors and traders have suspended shipments. Around 20% of global oil flows through that channel.
🤨 If Trump is serious about regime change and Iran keeps hitting neighboring states, while Saudi signals it could join and OPEC meets to potentially boost production and stabilize oil flows, that points to preparation for a longer conflict, not a brief exchange.
@Coin_Post
There is footage of a drone striking near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Another shows a drone hitting a residential high-rise in Bahrain. This is no longer confined to military targets, it is terrorism. The cost asymmetry is obvious. A relatively cheap drone can cause massive real estate damage and crush tourism-driven GDP in cities like Dubai.
Now the real question is whether this is a short exchange or the start of something much longer?
Iran confirmed its Defense Minister and a Revolutionary Guard commander got killed, brushing it off by saying losing a few commanders is “not such a big problem.” There is still no confirmed information on whether their leader Khamenei survived. Israeli assessments say the chances are slim, but nothing official yet.
What is confirmed is that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers are piling up. Oil majors and traders have suspended shipments. Around 20% of global oil flows through that channel.
@Coin_Post
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Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in this morning’s airstrike, with his body reportedly found under the rubble.
🔍 There are no published photos yet, but prediction markets are pricing that he is "out" at over 90% probability.
Crypto reacted instantly. Prices pumped on the assumption that removing the head of the regime increases the odds of faster deescalation and potential regime change.
The most bullish path now is quick confirmation from Tehran, a successor more willing to negotiate on U.S. terms, and a successful deal with Trump.
🐻 The bearish path is the opposite. Prolonged chaos and a conflict that drags on for months.
*Update: Iran State TV Confirms Khamenei's Death
Crypto reacted instantly. Prices pumped on the assumption that removing the head of the regime increases the odds of faster deescalation and potential regime change.
The most bullish path now is quick confirmation from Tehran, a successor more willing to negotiate on U.S. terms, and a successful deal with Trump.
*Update: Iran State TV Confirms Khamenei's Death
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Media is too big
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I recommend listening to Stan Druckenmiller’s recent interview with Morgan Stanley 🎧
This guy is one of the greatest macro investors ever, he compounded capital at insane rates (avg 30% a year) for decades with ZERO losing years, and helped run Soros’ fund during some of its biggest trades.
Here are a few takeaways:
💭 He said contrarianism is overrated, most of the time the crowd is right (like 80% of the time), the key is not being stubborn when that changes.
💭 Your edge is not predicting everything correctly, it’s pressing hard when you’re right and getting out fast when you’re wrong.
💭 Volatility is not something to fear, it’s often the only moment you get paid properly for acting on strong conviction.
💭 Technical analysis setups and obvious price or news signals used to work better in the past (now they don't). Once everyone learns the pattern the edge disappears.
💭 And one of his favorite indicators is simple: watch where the smartest young people go, he noticed top Stanford students shifting from crypto to AI long before that trade became mainstream.
📌 Save for later
@Coin_Post
This guy is one of the greatest macro investors ever, he compounded capital at insane rates (avg 30% a year) for decades with ZERO losing years, and helped run Soros’ fund during some of its biggest trades.
Here are a few takeaways:
@Coin_Post
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What Is “Atoms vs Bits”? 🧐
“Atoms vs Bits” is a framework popularized by Citrini Research describing a capital rotation from digital businesses into physical industries. It reflects a shift in investor focus toward scarcity and real-world constraints in the AI era.
💻 Bits refer to software businesses such as SaaS platforms, fintech, marketplaces, and digital advertising. These companies scaled easily and commanded high multiples over the past decade.
But rapid advances in AI have introduced uncertainty around their long-term moats and pricing power, which has pressured valuations.
🏭 Atoms refer to physical industries like energy, mining, materials, aerospace, and grid infrastructure. These sectors are limited by supply chains, permitting, expertise, and capital intensity. Capacity cannot be expanded quickly, and production often takes years to scale.
🔄 The rotation toward atoms is driven by rising AI-related demand for physical inputs such as power, copper, electrical steel, and nuclear fuel infrastructure.
At the same time, uncertainty around software defensibility has increased. Investors are reallocating toward businesses with tangible constraints and pricing power.
#FAQ
“Atoms vs Bits” is a framework popularized by Citrini Research describing a capital rotation from digital businesses into physical industries. It reflects a shift in investor focus toward scarcity and real-world constraints in the AI era.
But rapid advances in AI have introduced uncertainty around their long-term moats and pricing power, which has pressured valuations.
At the same time, uncertainty around software defensibility has increased. Investors are reallocating toward businesses with tangible constraints and pricing power.
#FAQ
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Markets are acting like World War 3 isn’t happening
Even as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and Trump warns “It is going to get even less safe. We haven’t even started to hit them hard. The big wave hasn’t happened yet. The big one is coming soon,” prices are not pricing in catastrophe🤷♀️
🟢 Gold and oil did spike initially, but half of today’s crude oil futures pump has already retraced.
🟢 The S&P 500 opened in the red, then erased the dump and is now green on the day.
🟢 Bitcoin and other speculative assets are pumping.
🟢 Even the Tel Aviv stock exchange is trading at new all-time highs.
🤔 JPMorgan today said rising Iran tensions are a buying opportunity, not a reason to exit stocks.
This tells you what traders think: a quick resolution is coming soon, not a long grinding war.
@Coin_Post
Even as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and Trump warns “It is going to get even less safe. We haven’t even started to hit them hard. The big wave hasn’t happened yet. The big one is coming soon,” prices are not pricing in catastrophe
This tells you what traders think: a quick resolution is coming soon, not a long grinding war.
@Coin_Post
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Sector Rotation Through the Business Cycle 🟡
Sector business cycle seasonality describes how different parts of the market tend to outperform or underperform depending on where the economy stands. The cycle moves through recovery, expansion, slowdown, and recession as growth accelerates and then decelerates.
🔄 Stock market sectors group companies with similar drivers. Some rely heavily on economic expansion, others provide essential services that are less tied to growth. As economic conditions shift, leadership tends to rotate among these groups.
🟢 In early recoveries, capital typically flows into growth-sensitive areas as activity rebounds.
🟢 During expansion, broader participation usually follows rising profits.
🟠 As growth decelerates, defensive sectors often outperform.
🔴 In recession phases, stable demand and predictable cash flows tend to hold up better relative to cyclical businesses.
👉 Today we see some real examples of this dynamic. Software and communication sectors, which were strong during the prior expansion, are now in bear market. At the same time, more defensive and real-world sectors have been relatively resilient.
The attached image is a cheat sheet showing how sector leadership has historically rotated across cycle phases. It does not predict exact turning points, but it highlights tendencies in relative performance that emerge as economic momentum changes.
I believe the economy today is shifting from a slowdown into a recession phase, as shown in the chart. The recent strength in consumer staples over the past three months is consistent with that transition❗️
#FAQ
Sector business cycle seasonality describes how different parts of the market tend to outperform or underperform depending on where the economy stands. The cycle moves through recovery, expansion, slowdown, and recession as growth accelerates and then decelerates.
The attached image is a cheat sheet showing how sector leadership has historically rotated across cycle phases. It does not predict exact turning points, but it highlights tendencies in relative performance that emerge as economic momentum changes.
I believe the economy today is shifting from a slowdown into a recession phase, as shown in the chart. The recent strength in consumer staples over the past three months is consistent with that transition
#FAQ
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