In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin's global bottom was hit precisely along the CVDD line, an on-chain indicator that has historically identified the final point of capitulation with maximum accuracy.

Current CVDD level: $48,500.

🚨 There is a high probability that Bitcoin will form its bottom just below the psychological level of $50,000.

This is an approximate chart, after all. What conclusion can we draw from it? Give or take, we are at the bottom, but we could still dip lower, especially considering the on-chain indicator above and the overall weakness of Bitcoin right now.

Bitcoin doesn't look strong at the moment. For the crypto market to reverse, we need to see strong demand, essentially a massive stack of green candles moving up followed by consolidation.

Currently, crypto isn't rising on good news, but it sure is falling on bad news 🤔

However, everything aligns perfectly for this autumn:
• The Fed's new inflation calculation policy
• Interest rate cuts
• The necessity to increase liquidity
• The Trump election, and so on

So, we wait 🔥

The main bottleneck for AI development is no longer a shortage of chips, but of ordinary power transformers. Future data centers are quite literally running out of power 🤔

Transformer manufacturing is a highly custom, heavy-duty process that is incredibly difficult to automate. Order backlogs now stretch out for years, prices have doubled, and about 40% of new data centers in the US are already missing their launch deadlines.

This infrastructure bottleneck is expected to last until 2030. The super-technologies of the future are heavily dependent on analog hardware 💡

We are looking for market opportunities in companies involved in this sector of the energy industry and everything connected to it.

What is happening in Asia? A massive asset sell-off has hit the region's key stock exchanges due to profit-taking in the overheated AI sector and escalating geopolitics 🇺🇸

🤖 Doubts over AI profitability. Skepticism is growing over whether tech companies' record multibillion-dollar spending on AI will yield adequate returns in the near future.

🥷 US–Iran conflict. A sixth consecutive night of reciprocal airstrikes in the Persian Gulf has led to the collapse of the truce and paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

📦 Brent and WTI crude oil prices jumped by more than 10% over the week, settling near $85 and $80 per barrel, respectively. This revives the risks of energy-driven inflation.

🚨 What to expect from the US market opening?
Following the slump of Asian semiconductor giants, shares of Nvidia, AMD, and major AI companies will come under heavy pressure at the opening bell.

We'll see. Surprisingly, the crypto market isn't dropping as significantly as it could have so far.

The figures from the last cycle force a complete rethink of our portfolio construction strategy. Here is how asset values changed from September 2023 to October 2025, along with their current drawdowns:

🟠 BNB: +535% at its peak → currently down by ≈56%

🪙 Coinbase Stock: +440% at its peak → currently down by ≈59%

🥇 Bitcoin: +382% at its peak → currently down by ≈48%

✨ Ethereum: +161% at its peak → currently down by ≈55%

It seems we are buying the wrong things if Coinbase stock outperforms our "top" project, Ethereum 🕔

🚨 Take a closer look at companies representing the crypto industry, they are showing returns comparable to Bitcoin, and sometimes even better. Some institutional investors prefer entering the market through them, viewing them as a more or less familiar and understandable instrument.

🔴 Gold and silver have lost $14.55 trillion in market cap over 172 days

🔴 That’s 6.6 times larger than the entire crypto market

Ready to bag-fill some gold, or waiting for $3,500? 😠

Bitcoin is facing another dip this cycle, and whales have set up laddered orders in the $60k–$48k range 👀

Let’s be real: the only reason 99% of traders are expecting another BTC drop this year is because in previous cycles it fell much harder from its peak. For bottom-catchers looking to go all-in, the current drawdown of just over 50% feels like a light correction.

Here’s the reality:

🔵 BTC drawdowns from peak are shrinking with every cycle — shoutout to everyone who was waiting for $10k BTC in autumn 2022. The crypto market has fundamentally changed since 2021, and expecting history to repeat itself word-for-word is a losing strategy.

🔵 BTC is holding above $60k despite the escalation in the Middle East, simply because whales are already accumulating for the next bull run. Yes, they have orders down to $48k, but those are meant for dollar-cost averaging, not a bet on a complete collapse.

🔵 A new BTC bottom is still on the table, but it needs a major catalyst: an S&P 500 crash, the total destruction of Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, Saylor going bankrupt, or another "orange swan" event 🇺🇸

A long-term BTC investor should already be in position because the market bottom is forming right now. The odds that the market gives a better entry price are 50/50, and that’s exactly how the whales are playing it.

And if you’re still wondering when to exit BTC, CZ already gave the answer:

People buy Bitcoin and ask, "When do you exit?" You don’t exit the internet. You don’t exit AI. 💸

📊 Today I was analyzing assets I’d like to add to my portfolio, focusing particularly on semiconductors, which have taken a dip recently. After all, earnings for these companies are growing, which means the AI bubble everyone keeps predicting isn’t going to happen.

⚠️ But buying assets at the absolute peak of a vertical acceleration is sheer madness, despite the recent dip, this is still vertical growth.

👇 Below are the key rules for dealing with parabolic market movements:

🚫 Vertical growth is a strict taboo
Looking at AMD, Micron, or Nvidia, it's clear that even for companies with flawless fundamentals, the peak of a parabola is an extreme overbought zone. The asset simply becomes unjustifiably expensive there.

⏳ Wait for a deep correction
Choose patience over emotions and buying at the highs. A real entry point appears during a pullback of 50-60% (or at least 30-40%) from the local peak. Only during such dips does it make sense to carefully build a long-term position in tranches. Even then, look at the overall market context, the current phase, and the prevailing narrative. The broader market might be at its peak, making it too early to enter even after a 30-40% drop.

💰 Take profit, don't average up
If you've been in the asset from the start and held it all the way through the explosive growth phase, it’s high time to lock in profits into cash. The market almost never delivers a strong vertical move without a deep pullback following it.

Inexperienced investors always act irrationally. At the bottom, during periods of fear and uncertainty, they are terrified to buy (even though it's the ideal moment). Yet, once an asset pulls off a multi-bagger move, the crowd panics into buying right at the top, instantly catching a deep correction.

💡 Key takeaway: Buying a parabola means knowingly taking on massive risk at the worst possible prices. Smart money does the exact opposite: they buy during fear and deep pullbacks, and during vertical surges, they lock in profits and calmly wait for the next opportunity.

Emergency incident at OpenAI during testing of GPT-5.6 Sol: the AI escaped from an isolated server and hacked partner company Hugging Face 😝

A new pre-release model was attached to GPT-5.6 Sol, and testing was launched in a closed environment. The AI decided there was an easier way to pass the test. It broke out of the "sandbox" and hacked the Hugging Face server where the correct test answers were stored.

Sam Altman can rejoice: the upgraded GPT-5.6 Sol cracks cybersecurity better than the acclaimed Claude Mythos 5.

Bitcoin has never dropped below its Balanced Price. Right now, that’s $38 382 🕯

Hit 👍 if you're ready to go all-in if the price dips below $40k!

Data centers in the US are projected to consume 20% of all electricity by 2035, up from 5.9% currently

As I mentioned earlier, the main bottleneck won't be the chips themselves, but basic transformers and everything related to powering our "casino."

After dozens of hours of analysis, I've selected a few companies that look like top contenders in this space: strong contracts, solid financials, and long-term leaders in their sector 💡

• Eaton Corporation (ETN) – a multinational giant in smart power management. The company produces highly complex electrical equipment: transformers, switchboards, uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, circuit breakers, as well as components for hydraulics and the aerospace industry.

• Powell Industries (POWL) – a manufacturer of complex, custom electrical equipment: switchgear, motor control centers, and modular Power Control Rooms (PCRs) for heavy industry, energy, and data centers.

• GE Vernova – the former energy division of the legendary General Electric, which spun off into an independent company in 2024. They are a global powerhouse in the energy sector.

• Vistra Corp (VST) – an integrated energy company and the largest independent power producer (IPP) in the US.

� Right now, they have already surged and look significantly overbought due to their vertical growth. They are on my watchlist and I'm waiting for a pullback before entering.

P.S. Investing in electricity is a bet on a structural deficit that cannot be fixed overnight. It serves as an energy hedge in an AI portfolio.

This map explains the surge in oil prices 📦

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.6 points – the highest level since December 2020:

🟢 A record 54% do not believe in a global recession, with only 2% predicting a hard landing

🟢 Investment allocation in US equities was increased to its highest level since December 2024

🟢 82% of investors are betting on the continued rally in semiconductors. Even those who took profits on Big Tech in July are now not willing to risk shorting the market

🟢 61% of respondents believe major cloud providers will not cut capex before the end of the year

🟢 83% do not expect the Fed to raise rates before the US autumn elections

🔴 45% view an AI bubble as the main risk

💬 In the market, it's often tempting to go against the crowd and hit the jackpot, but you should never fight the trend. And for now, the trend remains intact, even if it won't be a straight line up.

💸 Calculated: In just 1.5 years of his second presidential term, Trump has earned more than in the previous 60 years. And that’s despite him turning down the presidential salary.

🕊 Brent crude is at $86 – down 15% since the US stopped strikes on Iran. BTC is back above $65k, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%. Markets aren't expecting a new peace deal just yet, but they are pricing in a prolonged de-escalation.

It’s going to be an interesting week:
🔵 Wednesday – Fed rate decision, Microsoft and Meta earnings
🔵 Thursday – US PCE inflation data, Apple and Amazon earnings

What's the vibe for the new week? Share in the comments 👇

Nvidia’s money loop threatens AI 👆

Yesterday, Nvidia dropped 5% – down 17% from its peak. This happened following reports of a new $500B deal with SK Hynix and talks of a $250B investment in OpenAI.

How it works:
🔵 Nvidia produces and sells chips
🔵 Nvidia invests money into chip buyers
🔵 OpenAI and other AI companies buy chips

Almost every chip sale is immediately recognized as revenue at the time of sale, even if the purchase itself is financed by Nvidia 👀

Investors see surging demand and record revenue, unaware of how much of that amount the company effectively paid to itself – a money loop.

Jensen Huang calls this story ridiculous, while the bear Michael Burry bets against the semiconductor industry, expecting the system to break.

💬 Tension and high volatility in the semiconductor sector may persist until August 26, when Nvidia calms everyone down again with another record earnings report.

🤑 6 hours until the Fed interest rate decision. This year, BTC has dropped after every rate meeting.

💥 Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on a US base in Jordan. Counterstrikes against Iran—much like Trump's threatening posts—are unlikely before the Fed meeting, so Kevin Warsh isn't tempted to hike rates. The current probability of a rate hike sits at 29%.

🔽 South Korea's stock market fell another 8% and is now down 35% from its peak. The sell-off was triggered by SK Hynix's revenue report, which came in below estimates, its stock tumbled 10% and is trading 52% below its peak.

It makes sense to stay out of the market today to avoid getting caught in the volatility during Kevin Warsh's press conference.

P.S. Two years ago, Durov was strongly urged to return under Russian protection. If he had listened, he could be facing a life sentence right now 🥷