Bitcoin is facing another dip this cycle, and whales have set up laddered orders in the $60k–$48k range 👀

Let’s be real: the only reason 99% of traders are expecting another BTC drop this year is because in previous cycles it fell much harder from its peak. For bottom-catchers looking to go all-in, the current drawdown of just over 50% feels like a light correction.

Here’s the reality:

🔵 BTC drawdowns from peak are shrinking with every cycle — shoutout to everyone who was waiting for $10k BTC in autumn 2022. The crypto market has fundamentally changed since 2021, and expecting history to repeat itself word-for-word is a losing strategy.

🔵 BTC is holding above $60k despite the escalation in the Middle East, simply because whales are already accumulating for the next bull run. Yes, they have orders down to $48k, but those are meant for dollar-cost averaging, not a bet on a complete collapse.

🔵 A new BTC bottom is still on the table, but it needs a major catalyst: an S&P 500 crash, the total destruction of Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, Saylor going bankrupt, or another "orange swan" event 🇺🇸

A long-term BTC investor should already be in position because the market bottom is forming right now. The odds that the market gives a better entry price are 50/50, and that’s exactly how the whales are playing it.

And if you’re still wondering when to exit BTC, CZ already gave the answer:

People buy Bitcoin and ask, "When do you exit?" You don’t exit the internet. You don’t exit AI. 💸

📊 Today I was analyzing assets I’d like to add to my portfolio, focusing particularly on semiconductors, which have taken a dip recently. After all, earnings for these companies are growing, which means the AI bubble everyone keeps predicting isn’t going to happen.

⚠️ But buying assets at the absolute peak of a vertical acceleration is sheer madness, despite the recent dip, this is still vertical growth.

👇 Below are the key rules for dealing with parabolic market movements:

🚫 Vertical growth is a strict taboo
Looking at AMD, Micron, or Nvidia, it's clear that even for companies with flawless fundamentals, the peak of a parabola is an extreme overbought zone. The asset simply becomes unjustifiably expensive there.

⏳ Wait for a deep correction
Choose patience over emotions and buying at the highs. A real entry point appears during a pullback of 50-60% (or at least 30-40%) from the local peak. Only during such dips does it make sense to carefully build a long-term position in tranches. Even then, look at the overall market context, the current phase, and the prevailing narrative. The broader market might be at its peak, making it too early to enter even after a 30-40% drop.

💰 Take profit, don't average up
If you've been in the asset from the start and held it all the way through the explosive growth phase, it’s high time to lock in profits into cash. The market almost never delivers a strong vertical move without a deep pullback following it.

Inexperienced investors always act irrationally. At the bottom, during periods of fear and uncertainty, they are terrified to buy (even though it's the ideal moment). Yet, once an asset pulls off a multi-bagger move, the crowd panics into buying right at the top, instantly catching a deep correction.

💡 Key takeaway: Buying a parabola means knowingly taking on massive risk at the worst possible prices. Smart money does the exact opposite: they buy during fear and deep pullbacks, and during vertical surges, they lock in profits and calmly wait for the next opportunity.

Emergency incident at OpenAI during testing of GPT-5.6 Sol: the AI escaped from an isolated server and hacked partner company Hugging Face 😝

A new pre-release model was attached to GPT-5.6 Sol, and testing was launched in a closed environment. The AI decided there was an easier way to pass the test. It broke out of the "sandbox" and hacked the Hugging Face server where the correct test answers were stored.

Sam Altman can rejoice: the upgraded GPT-5.6 Sol cracks cybersecurity better than the acclaimed Claude Mythos 5.

Bitcoin has never dropped below its Balanced Price. Right now, that’s $38 382 🕯

Hit 👍 if you're ready to go all-in if the price dips below $40k!

Data centers in the US are projected to consume 20% of all electricity by 2035, up from 5.9% currently

As I mentioned earlier, the main bottleneck won't be the chips themselves, but basic transformers and everything related to powering our "casino."

After dozens of hours of analysis, I've selected a few companies that look like top contenders in this space: strong contracts, solid financials, and long-term leaders in their sector 💡

• Eaton Corporation (ETN) – a multinational giant in smart power management. The company produces highly complex electrical equipment: transformers, switchboards, uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, circuit breakers, as well as components for hydraulics and the aerospace industry.

• Powell Industries (POWL) – a manufacturer of complex, custom electrical equipment: switchgear, motor control centers, and modular Power Control Rooms (PCRs) for heavy industry, energy, and data centers.

• GE Vernova – the former energy division of the legendary General Electric, which spun off into an independent company in 2024. They are a global powerhouse in the energy sector.

• Vistra Corp (VST) – an integrated energy company and the largest independent power producer (IPP) in the US.

� Right now, they have already surged and look significantly overbought due to their vertical growth. They are on my watchlist and I'm waiting for a pullback before entering.

P.S. Investing in electricity is a bet on a structural deficit that cannot be fixed overnight. It serves as an energy hedge in an AI portfolio.

This map explains the surge in oil prices 📦

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.6 points – the highest level since December 2020:

🟢 A record 54% do not believe in a global recession, with only 2% predicting a hard landing

🟢 Investment allocation in US equities was increased to its highest level since December 2024

🟢 82% of investors are betting on the continued rally in semiconductors. Even those who took profits on Big Tech in July are now not willing to risk shorting the market

🟢 61% of respondents believe major cloud providers will not cut capex before the end of the year

🟢 83% do not expect the Fed to raise rates before the US autumn elections

🔴 45% view an AI bubble as the main risk

💬 In the market, it's often tempting to go against the crowd and hit the jackpot, but you should never fight the trend. And for now, the trend remains intact, even if it won't be a straight line up.

💸 Calculated: In just 1.5 years of his second presidential term, Trump has earned more than in the previous 60 years. And that’s despite him turning down the presidential salary.

🕊 Brent crude is at $86 – down 15% since the US stopped strikes on Iran. BTC is back above $65k, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%. Markets aren't expecting a new peace deal just yet, but they are pricing in a prolonged de-escalation.

It’s going to be an interesting week:
🔵 Wednesday – Fed rate decision, Microsoft and Meta earnings
🔵 Thursday – US PCE inflation data, Apple and Amazon earnings

What's the vibe for the new week? Share in the comments 👇

Nvidia’s money loop threatens AI 👆

Yesterday, Nvidia dropped 5% – down 17% from its peak. This happened following reports of a new $500B deal with SK Hynix and talks of a $250B investment in OpenAI.

How it works:
🔵 Nvidia produces and sells chips
🔵 Nvidia invests money into chip buyers
🔵 OpenAI and other AI companies buy chips

Almost every chip sale is immediately recognized as revenue at the time of sale, even if the purchase itself is financed by Nvidia 👀

Investors see surging demand and record revenue, unaware of how much of that amount the company effectively paid to itself – a money loop.

Jensen Huang calls this story ridiculous, while the bear Michael Burry bets against the semiconductor industry, expecting the system to break.

💬 Tension and high volatility in the semiconductor sector may persist until August 26, when Nvidia calms everyone down again with another record earnings report.

🤑 6 hours until the Fed interest rate decision. This year, BTC has dropped after every rate meeting.

💥 Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on a US base in Jordan. Counterstrikes against Iran—much like Trump's threatening posts—are unlikely before the Fed meeting, so Kevin Warsh isn't tempted to hike rates. The current probability of a rate hike sits at 29%.

🔽 South Korea's stock market fell another 8% and is now down 35% from its peak. The sell-off was triggered by SK Hynix's revenue report, which came in below estimates, its stock tumbled 10% and is trading 52% below its peak.

It makes sense to stay out of the market today to avoid getting caught in the volatility during Kevin Warsh's press conference.

P.S. Two years ago, Durov was strongly urged to return under Russian protection. If he had listened, he could be facing a life sentence right now 🥷

The best time to buy BTC is during the US midterm elections 💸

The final bear market dump in every cycle occurs right before the autumn midterm Congressional elections, this year, they take place on November 3.

Spent yesterday evening digging into the topic of uranium for potential investment 📈. After all, if we're facing a colossal demand for data centers, both for 🤖 and for storing our files in the cloud in general, we’re going to need more and more energy.

🚀 In reality, uranium is facing a much tighter supply deficit than oil. All past surplus inventories, such as Soviet warheads under the "Megatons to Megawatts" program and excess stockpiles following the Fukushima disaster, have been completely exhausted. Building a new uranium mine in Western countries takes anywhere from 5 to 10 years.

There are currently 70 new large-scale reactors under construction globally, 39 of which are in China. In the US, zero large reactors are being built due to sky-high costs and chronic construction delays.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) 💡

Data centers trained on AI models require uninterrupted 24/7 power, something solar and wind farms simply cannot deliver on their own. Big Tech (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia) is actively entering into direct power purchase agreements (PPAs) with nuclear operators.

There is a growing view that the future of US nuclear energy lies in small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors (like the project by Oklo), which can be placed right next to power-hungry AI data centers, bypassing the fragile and overburdened power grid.

It sounds awesome 😎, but for now, these companies are still in the licensing stage with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Their mass commercial rollout won't begin until closer to 2028–2030.

Should we break down the uranium sector in detail? 👍

China accounts for 28% of global manufacturing – a 3-fold growth since 2004 😉

For comparison:
▪️ USA – 17%
▪️ Eurozone – 15%
▪️ Japan – 5%

And now China has learned to produce lithography machines for chip manufacturing.

Since 2022, the US has shown great dynamics: the policy of bringing manufacturing back home and financial pressure on Beijing worked. In response, China is narrowing the tech gap and preparing for round two of the standoff 😤

A prompt that teaches AI to generate crypto trading signals. It automatically finds and evaluates top gainers and losers, then builds a risk-adjusted trading plan 🤩

What it does:
• Identifies top gainers and losers within the CoinMarketCap top 100
• Performs technical and fundamental analysis
• Evaluates news catalysts and risk levels
• Delivers actionable trading recommendations

The prompt:

You are a crypto market analyst and short-term trader. Use live data.
SELECTION
Review CoinMarketCap ranks 1–100. Ignore ads, promoted rows, stablecoins and wrapped assets. Select exactly six coins: the three largest 24h gains and three largest losses. Preserve CMC percentages; state retrieval date, time and zone.
If the full top 100 cannot be verified, stop. Never guess.
EXCHANGE PRIORITY
For each coin, use the first active spot market:
Binance TOKEN/USDT
Bybit TOKEN/USDT
Coinbase TOKEN/USD
Coinbase TOKEN/USDC
Use one exchange/pair per coin. Never mix exchanges.
DATA FALLBACK
Use sources in order:
Public exchange API
Official exchange chart/page
TradingView for the same exchange and pair
Mark unavailable metrics N/A and continue. Missing indicators, order-book or derivatives data must not cancel the analysis.
Minimum data for a forecast:
current price;
recent 4H and 1D price history;
24h volume or reliable volume proxy;
visible local highs and lows.
If this minimum exists, you must provide trend, support, resistance, verdict, entry confirmation, invalidation and targets.
If it does not, keep the coin, research its catalyst and state:
“Forecast unavailable: insufficient market data for technical analysis”.
If fewer than four coins receive a forecast, stop: market-data coverage was insufficient. Do not publish a catalyst-only report.
CATALYSTS
Prioritize 24–72 hours; expand to 30 days only for relevant events.
Check official sources first, then reputable media and reliable on-chain sources.
Verify token identity/date. Label claims CONFIRMED FACT, REASONABLE INFERENCE or UNSUPPORTED SPECULATION.
If no credible catalyst exists, say so. Never invent reasons or present correlation as causation.
TRADING ANALYSIS
For every supported coin assess:
price, 24h/7d/30d performance and CMC market cap;
24h volume, volatility, 4H and 1D trend;
key support and resistance;
RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), EMA20/50/200 when available;
spread and ±1% order-book liquidity when available;
open interest, funding and liquidations only with a reliable perpetual market.
Use closed candles. Distinguish rebounds/short squeezes from fundamental improvement.
Assign BUY, SELL/REDUCE or WATCH.
Give scenarios for 2–3 days, 1–2 weeks and up to 1 month.
Include logic, entry confirmation, invalidation/stop, targets, holder action, new-buyer action and key risks.
Do not chase a vertical pump. Flag liquidity, volatility, concentration, unlock and manipulation risks.
RISK CHECK
Check today, the next 72 hours and next month for Fed/FOMC, CPI, PCE, payrolls, major rulings, large unlocks, exchange events and security incidents.
End with:
TRADE-TODAY RISK WARNING
If an event is imminent, give exact date/time/zone, explain risk and say whether to avoid new positions or reduce size. Otherwise say none is imminent.
OUTPUT IN RUSSIAN
Snapshot: coin, ticker, rank, 24h change, gainer/loser, exchange and pair.
Compact section per coin: catalyst, setup, horizon verdicts, entry, invalidation, targets, holder/new-buyer action and risks.
Best risk/reward candidate, highest-risk coin and final warning.
Use exact dates and working links. Separate facts from inferences. Recommendations are conditional. Be concise.

Recommendations:
🔵 You can customize the prompt by tweaking asset selection logic, exchanges, and other parameters.
🔵 The prompt saves time on research and analysis, but do not follow its recommendations blindly. Use it strictly as a framework for your own analysis and trading decisions.

Save and test it out 👍

☢️ Following up on the uranium sector post. For now, I’ve singled out the URA ETF (uranium miners + reactor & component manufacturers). It’s currently in a 36% correction 📉 – not interesting yet, I’m waiting for a 50–65% dip.

🔹 There’s also the URNM ETF (pure-play mining and physical uranium). It’s down 40%, still not attractive enough. Needs to drop further, especially since it’s purely a bet on physical uranium itself, so who knows how it’ll perform isolated from the broader industry.

🔹 The Company – Cameco. It holds the largest allocation in both URA and URNM portfolios (up to 20–24%). This is the fundamental backbone of the entire Western uranium industry... Currently in a 30% correction. Still waiting.

🔹 Microreactors
The whole microreactor narrative requires a deeper dive and honestly feels like hype right now. Even though companies like OKLO (microreactors) have dumped hard, they have zero earnings – it’s a pure speculative bet on placing reactors near data centers 🖥️

So for now, we wait for a better entry point, plus we’ll need to check the overall market macro context later on.

What do you guys think about the microreactor play? Sounds promising or nah? 🕑

Trump has backed down on Iran once again, canceling new massive strikes because he was urged to do so and promised that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened.

This is an almost textbook play on the TACO indicator. Remember us mentioning that Donald would go for de-escalation by the end of July? On July 26, Trump ordered a halt to strikes on Iran, and by August 2, he was already talking about a new peace deal.

What convinced Donald:
▪️ A 60% probability of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting
▪️ 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest level since 2007
▪️ The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve shrinking for 18 consecutive weeks, now at its lowest since 1983
▪️ Retail investors setting a record for daily sales of US tech stock – $316M

Markets will definitely love this de-escalation, and Monday is expected to be green, but so far there is no confirmation of real negotiations or moves toward peace. What we are seeing now is Donald manipulating market sentiment to keep the US economic situation afloat.

And manipulation can reverse at any moment, triggering wild volatility. For instance, if Iran hits US tankers or military bases again, Donald will be forced to respond 😱

Tweet volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum is at an all-time low. The last time we saw a lull like this was right before the 2021 bull run.

Overall, everything adds up. The only real question is: which crypto projects will actually survive to see it? 😱