Greer: China's Rare Earth Exports Improving, But Still Slow
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer notes improving rare earth exports from China to the U.S., despite Beijing's continued slowness in approving some shipments. He indicated U.S. officials often intervene for affected companies, offering China a "passing grade" but highlighting occasional delays requiring engagement.
China's April 2025 export controls, enacted following U.S. tariffs, persist in restricting some rare earths, despite an October deal for free flow. Beijing defends its controls, asserting it approves eligible requests. The U.S. recently saw significant yttrium shipments, a rare earth solely from China that had caused shortages in its semiconductor and aerospace industries for over a year. Greer characterized engagement with Chinese counterparts as constructive when issues arise.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer notes improving rare earth exports from China to the U.S., despite Beijing's continued slowness in approving some shipments. He indicated U.S. officials often intervene for affected companies, offering China a "passing grade" but highlighting occasional delays requiring engagement.
China's April 2025 export controls, enacted following U.S. tariffs, persist in restricting some rare earths, despite an October deal for free flow. Beijing defends its controls, asserting it approves eligible requests. The U.S. recently saw significant yttrium shipments, a rare earth solely from China that had caused shortages in its semiconductor and aerospace industries for over a year. Greer characterized engagement with Chinese counterparts as constructive when issues arise.
Goolsbee: US Economy May Be Overheating as Inflation Persists
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inflation readings indicate pervasive price pressures, suggesting the US economy may be overheating. He voiced particular concern over services inflation, which remains unaffected by energy or tariffs. April inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the fastest since 2023, a report Goolsbee described as "worse than expected." He stressed the need to "get it back down." The Fed kept rates unchanged last month, with inflation persistently above its 2% target for five years.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inflation readings indicate pervasive price pressures, suggesting the US economy may be overheating. He voiced particular concern over services inflation, which remains unaffected by energy or tariffs. April inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the fastest since 2023, a report Goolsbee described as "worse than expected." He stressed the need to "get it back down." The Fed kept rates unchanged last month, with inflation persistently above its 2% target for five years.
US Pledges New UN Aid, Demands Alignment with Trump's Interests
The U.S. announced $1.8 billion in new humanitarian aid via the UN, insisting it must align with the Trump administration's foreign policy interests. This commitment adds to $2 billion pledged in December.
State Department official Jeremy Lewin stated 92% of assistance is "hyper-prioritized" for life-saving efforts, aligning with presidential interests. He clarified funds would bypass countries where U.S. interests diverge from UN priorities, allowing focus on shared goals while asserting sovereign investment rights.
OCHA chief Tom Fletcher affirmed the UN's neutrality and impartiality, noting reforms amidst declining funds and 300 million people in need globally. Separately, the U.S. owes the UN roughly $4 billion, including peacekeeping dues, though $159M was recently paid to its regular budget.
The U.S. announced $1.8 billion in new humanitarian aid via the UN, insisting it must align with the Trump administration's foreign policy interests. This commitment adds to $2 billion pledged in December.
State Department official Jeremy Lewin stated 92% of assistance is "hyper-prioritized" for life-saving efforts, aligning with presidential interests. He clarified funds would bypass countries where U.S. interests diverge from UN priorities, allowing focus on shared goals while asserting sovereign investment rights.
OCHA chief Tom Fletcher affirmed the UN's neutrality and impartiality, noting reforms amidst declining funds and 300 million people in need globally. Separately, the U.S. owes the UN roughly $4 billion, including peacekeeping dues, though $159M was recently paid to its regular budget.
Trump's Patience Wanes with Iran
President Trump warned he won't be "much more patient" with Iran, urging a deal with Washington. He also indicated the push for Iran to surrender enriched uranium is primarily for "public relations," not security.
The U.S. demands Iran export its enriched uranium and cease domestic enrichment. Tehran, an NPT member, denies nuclear weapon ambitions, asserting its right to peaceful nuclear tech. An Iranian official recently threatened 90% uranium enrichment if attacked again.
This follows a fragile five-week ceasefire initiated after US-Israel attacks on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory strikes. Trump's rhetoric during the conflict, including threats against civilian infrastructure and "entire civilization," drew widespread criticism.
President Trump warned he won't be "much more patient" with Iran, urging a deal with Washington. He also indicated the push for Iran to surrender enriched uranium is primarily for "public relations," not security.
The U.S. demands Iran export its enriched uranium and cease domestic enrichment. Tehran, an NPT member, denies nuclear weapon ambitions, asserting its right to peaceful nuclear tech. An Iranian official recently threatened 90% uranium enrichment if attacked again.
This follows a fragile five-week ceasefire initiated after US-Israel attacks on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory strikes. Trump's rhetoric during the conflict, including threats against civilian infrastructure and "entire civilization," drew widespread criticism.
Bitcoin Depot's ATM Empire Collapses into Bankruptcy
North America's largest Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin Depot, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, taking its 9,276 kiosks offline. The Nasdaq-listed firm reported a Q1 revenue plunge of 49% and swung to a $9.5 million loss.
Its high-fee model (8-20%) proved unsustainable. Mobile exchanges offering sub-1% fees turned ATM "convenience" into a "fee trap," drying up transaction volume amidst high fixed costs.
Regulatory pressure, including state-imposed limits, outright bans, and lawsuits over alleged scam facilitation, sealed its fate. This collapse serves as a significant bearish signal for the physical crypto infrastructure sector.
North America's largest Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin Depot, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, taking its 9,276 kiosks offline. The Nasdaq-listed firm reported a Q1 revenue plunge of 49% and swung to a $9.5 million loss.
Its high-fee model (8-20%) proved unsustainable. Mobile exchanges offering sub-1% fees turned ATM "convenience" into a "fee trap," drying up transaction volume amidst high fixed costs.
Regulatory pressure, including state-imposed limits, outright bans, and lawsuits over alleged scam facilitation, sealed its fate. This collapse serves as a significant bearish signal for the physical crypto infrastructure sector.
Shots Fired at Philippine Senate, No Casualties
Gunshots were reported at the Philippine Senate on Wednesday, with Secretary Mark Llandro Mendoza confirming no casualties.
An undetermined number of law enforcers reportedly attempted to enter the building. The situation is currently under assessment, though all individuals inside are confirmed safe. Earlier, the Senate President had issued active shooter protocols, advising staff to turn off lights and stay low, following an alleged attack on the chamber.
Gunshots were reported at the Philippine Senate on Wednesday, with Secretary Mark Llandro Mendoza confirming no casualties.
An undetermined number of law enforcers reportedly attempted to enter the building. The situation is currently under assessment, though all individuals inside are confirmed safe. Earlier, the Senate President had issued active shooter protocols, advising staff to turn off lights and stay low, following an alleged attack on the chamber.
Interactive Brokers Integrates Kalshi, CME, and ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has launched a new platform for trading event outcome contracts, consolidating offerings from Kalshi, CME Group, and its proprietary ForecastEx. This tool serves both retail and institutional clients, enabling trades on economic, climate, and political election outcomes. Sports and pop culture contracts are not currently planned.
The platform allows users to compare prices across venues, factoring in commissions. IBKR CEO Milan Galik noted that prediction markets redefine risk management, and they've combined competitive platforms with their robust infrastructure, with more exchanges to follow.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour praised IBKR as the "gold standard," highlighting the nascent institutional adoption of prediction markets. CME Group's Terry Duffy observed growing retail interest.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has launched a new platform for trading event outcome contracts, consolidating offerings from Kalshi, CME Group, and its proprietary ForecastEx. This tool serves both retail and institutional clients, enabling trades on economic, climate, and political election outcomes. Sports and pop culture contracts are not currently planned.
The platform allows users to compare prices across venues, factoring in commissions. IBKR CEO Milan Galik noted that prediction markets redefine risk management, and they've combined competitive platforms with their robust infrastructure, with more exchanges to follow.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour praised IBKR as the "gold standard," highlighting the nascent institutional adoption of prediction markets. CME Group's Terry Duffy observed growing retail interest.
21Shares Launches First Hyperliquid ETF on Nasdaq
21Shares has debuted the first Hyperliquid-based ETF on Nasdaq under ticker THYP, offering exposure to the native token without direct purchase and including staking rewards. A leveraged 2x Long HYPE ETF (TXXH) was also introduced.
THYP recorded a "very solid" $1.8 million in trading volume on its first day, per Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, despite being a niche product. This compares to $58M and $57M for debut XRP and Solana spot ETFs. Bitwise and Grayscale are also eyeing HYPE-based products.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $233.25 million in outflows on May 12, resuming a negative trend. Fidelity's FBTC led with $86.13 million in losses, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the sole positive with $6.02 million in inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced $130.62 million in outflows; BlackRock's ETHA lost $102.04 million, though ETHB saw a $11.75 million inflow.
21Shares has debuted the first Hyperliquid-based ETF on Nasdaq under ticker THYP, offering exposure to the native token without direct purchase and including staking rewards. A leveraged 2x Long HYPE ETF (TXXH) was also introduced.
THYP recorded a "very solid" $1.8 million in trading volume on its first day, per Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, despite being a niche product. This compares to $58M and $57M for debut XRP and Solana spot ETFs. Bitwise and Grayscale are also eyeing HYPE-based products.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $233.25 million in outflows on May 12, resuming a negative trend. Fidelity's FBTC led with $86.13 million in losses, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the sole positive with $6.02 million in inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced $130.62 million in outflows; BlackRock's ETHA lost $102.04 million, though ETHB saw a $11.75 million inflow.
Turkey Proposes $1.2B NATO Fuel Pipeline
Turkey has put forward a plan for a $1.2 billion military fuel pipeline to supply NATO allies on Europe's eastern flank. The proposed route would run from Turkey, through Bulgaria, to Romania.
This initiative aims to address NATO's need for a reliable and cost-effective supply chain, especially after disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions. Turkey's proposal is reportedly five times cheaper than alternative maritime routes and less vulnerable.
Ankara plans to present this military-only pipeline project ahead of the July NATO summit it will host, seeking allied support.
Turkey has put forward a plan for a $1.2 billion military fuel pipeline to supply NATO allies on Europe's eastern flank. The proposed route would run from Turkey, through Bulgaria, to Romania.
This initiative aims to address NATO's need for a reliable and cost-effective supply chain, especially after disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions. Turkey's proposal is reportedly five times cheaper than alternative maritime routes and less vulnerable.
Ankara plans to present this military-only pipeline project ahead of the July NATO summit it will host, seeking allied support.
German Chancellor Urges EU Reforms, Rejects Common Debt
Germany's Chancellor Merz stated the EU faces its toughest challenges, advocating for drastic economic reforms. He firmly rejected calls for increased common borrowing, citing constitutional reasons for Germany's position against financing regular expenditures through new European debt.
Speaking at an event honoring Mario Draghi, Merz acknowledged the EU's role as a geopolitical force. He stressed Europe must define its interests and act to protect them amid weekly crises and a hostile global environment.
Merz praised Draghi but disagreed with his proposal for joint debt to fund investments in low-carbon energy, defense, and competitiveness. He asserted, "There is no alternative to a fundamental modernization."
Germany's Chancellor Merz stated the EU faces its toughest challenges, advocating for drastic economic reforms. He firmly rejected calls for increased common borrowing, citing constitutional reasons for Germany's position against financing regular expenditures through new European debt.
Speaking at an event honoring Mario Draghi, Merz acknowledged the EU's role as a geopolitical force. He stressed Europe must define its interests and act to protect them amid weekly crises and a hostile global environment.
Merz praised Draghi but disagreed with his proposal for joint debt to fund investments in low-carbon energy, defense, and competitiveness. He asserted, "There is no alternative to a fundamental modernization."
Czech Central Bank Poised for Rate Hike Amid Mideast Tensions
The Czech National Bank (CNB) is prepared to tighten monetary policy if the ongoing Middle East conflict fuels core inflation, according to minutes from its latest meeting. On May 7, the CNB unanimously maintained its main repo rate at 3.50%, but indicated June's meeting would assess potential increases.
Policymakers acknowledged that initial thoughts of weathering the inflation shock without a policy response are diminishing as the conflict persists. Governor Ales Michl stressed the need for tight monetary policy, warning against underestimating cost shocks. The bank is closely monitoring the conflict's impact on global fuel prices and broader inflation expectations.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) is prepared to tighten monetary policy if the ongoing Middle East conflict fuels core inflation, according to minutes from its latest meeting. On May 7, the CNB unanimously maintained its main repo rate at 3.50%, but indicated June's meeting would assess potential increases.
Policymakers acknowledged that initial thoughts of weathering the inflation shock without a policy response are diminishing as the conflict persists. Governor Ales Michl stressed the need for tight monetary policy, warning against underestimating cost shocks. The bank is closely monitoring the conflict's impact on global fuel prices and broader inflation expectations.
Bank of America Exits GBP Short Amid Political Uncertainty
Bank of America exited its GBP short position following a selloff driven by political uncertainty post-May local elections.
The pound's decline stemmed from Labour leadership challenge speculation, intensified by Josh Simons' exit for Andy Burnham, amplifying political and fiscal uncertainty.
BofA observed increased risk premium on the pound. Though much of the move may be behind us and a pullback possible, BofA exited as the initial catalyst passed. They still bias for a weaker pound, anticipating ongoing headline-driven volatility. Lower GBP exposure via optionality offers a better risk expression.
Bank of America exited its GBP short position following a selloff driven by political uncertainty post-May local elections.
The pound's decline stemmed from Labour leadership challenge speculation, intensified by Josh Simons' exit for Andy Burnham, amplifying political and fiscal uncertainty.
BofA observed increased risk premium on the pound. Though much of the move may be behind us and a pullback possible, BofA exited as the initial catalyst passed. They still bias for a weaker pound, anticipating ongoing headline-driven volatility. Lower GBP exposure via optionality offers a better risk expression.
Tinubu Firm on Economic Reforms Despite Election Pressure
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu affirmed his commitment to economic reforms, dismissing speculation of policy reversal ahead of elections. He stated these "difficult but necessary" measures prevent spending future generations' endowment.
Since 2023, Tinubu ended fuel subsidies and liberalized the naira, policies that increased living costs but were defended as unavoidable due to inherited fiscal deterioration. He claims the economy has stabilized and vows to intensify his agenda if re-elected.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu affirmed his commitment to economic reforms, dismissing speculation of policy reversal ahead of elections. He stated these "difficult but necessary" measures prevent spending future generations' endowment.
Since 2023, Tinubu ended fuel subsidies and liberalized the naira, policies that increased living costs but were defended as unavoidable due to inherited fiscal deterioration. He claims the economy has stabilized and vows to intensify his agenda if re-elected.
Trump's China Trip: Pageantry Over Policy, Few Concrete Gains
President Trump's two-day state visit to Beijing with Xi Jinping concluded with minimal concrete outcomes despite extensive talks on critical issues like Iran, trade, and Taiwan. The trip prioritized spectacle over substantive policy.
No breakthrough on the pressing Iran conflict, despite Trump hinting at easing sanctions on Chinese refineries. Trade deals touted lacked detail, and no truce extension disappointed markets. Leaders largely "agreed to disagree" on major economic issues.
Trump maintained "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, while Xi warned of "dangerous" escalation. Uncharacteristically disciplined, Trump returns to significant domestic political headwinds, with the visit offering little to alleviate high gas prices, inflation, and voter anger.
President Trump's two-day state visit to Beijing with Xi Jinping concluded with minimal concrete outcomes despite extensive talks on critical issues like Iran, trade, and Taiwan. The trip prioritized spectacle over substantive policy.
No breakthrough on the pressing Iran conflict, despite Trump hinting at easing sanctions on Chinese refineries. Trade deals touted lacked detail, and no truce extension disappointed markets. Leaders largely "agreed to disagree" on major economic issues.
Trump maintained "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, while Xi warned of "dangerous" escalation. Uncharacteristically disciplined, Trump returns to significant domestic political headwinds, with the visit offering little to alleviate high gas prices, inflation, and voter anger.
Mandiri Sekuritas Anticipates BI Rate Hike Amidst Rupiah Pressure
Mandiri Sekuritas projects Bank Indonesia will increase its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on May 20. This forecast stems from persistent Rupiah weakness and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
The firm gives a 60% probability to the hike, with a 40% chance of BI using non-rate instruments to defend the currency. The Rupiah has depreciated over 2% since April, and FX reserves dropped to 5.8 months of imports.
BI's hawkish stance is evident from increased SRBI and repo rates. Solid Q1 GDP growth and healthy loan growth further support the expectation for a rate adjustment.
Mandiri Sekuritas projects Bank Indonesia will increase its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on May 20. This forecast stems from persistent Rupiah weakness and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
The firm gives a 60% probability to the hike, with a 40% chance of BI using non-rate instruments to defend the currency. The Rupiah has depreciated over 2% since April, and FX reserves dropped to 5.8 months of imports.
BI's hawkish stance is evident from increased SRBI and repo rates. Solid Q1 GDP growth and healthy loan growth further support the expectation for a rate adjustment.
Boston Fed's Collins: Iran War Inflation Pressures to Ease, Rate Hikes Possible
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins expects inflation pressures from the conflict in Iran to eventually subside. She stated that the current shock is masking evidence that underlying inflation is still trending downwards.
Collins warned that the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates if inflationary pressures do not abate as anticipated.
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins expects inflation pressures from the conflict in Iran to eventually subside. She stated that the current shock is masking evidence that underlying inflation is still trending downwards.
Collins warned that the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates if inflationary pressures do not abate as anticipated.
JPMorgan May Reassess London Tower Amid UK Political Shifts
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon indicated the bank might reconsider its planned multibillion-dollar London office tower if UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is ousted. Dimon stated a leadership change, particularly one leading to a "hostile" government towards banks, could prompt a re-evaluation of the project. He highlighted the $10 billion in "additional taxes" already faced by JPMorgan in the UK.
The bank's ambitious 3-million sq ft Canary Wharf headquarters, designed for 12,000 employees, is contingent on a "continuing positive business environment." Dimon expressed support for Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, praising their economic approach and efforts to improve EU relations, even as Starmer faces political pressure after recent local election results. The project is expected to contribute significantly to the UK economy and create thousands of jobs.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon indicated the bank might reconsider its planned multibillion-dollar London office tower if UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is ousted. Dimon stated a leadership change, particularly one leading to a "hostile" government towards banks, could prompt a re-evaluation of the project. He highlighted the $10 billion in "additional taxes" already faced by JPMorgan in the UK.
The bank's ambitious 3-million sq ft Canary Wharf headquarters, designed for 12,000 employees, is contingent on a "continuing positive business environment." Dimon expressed support for Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, praising their economic approach and efforts to improve EU relations, even as Starmer faces political pressure after recent local election results. The project is expected to contribute significantly to the UK economy and create thousands of jobs.
Anthropic to Brief FSB on Mythos-Exposed Cyber Flaws
AI startup Anthropic is reportedly set to brief the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on cyber vulnerabilities within the global financial system. These potential flaws were exposed by the company's latest artificial intelligence model, Mythos. The Financial Times reported this development, citing sources familiar with the plan.
AI startup Anthropic is reportedly set to brief the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on cyber vulnerabilities within the global financial system. These potential flaws were exposed by the company's latest artificial intelligence model, Mythos. The Financial Times reported this development, citing sources familiar with the plan.
Moscow Faces Largest Drone Assault in Over a Year, Four Killed
A significant Ukrainian drone attack targeted multiple Russian regions overnight, including the capital. This widespread strike, the largest coordinated aerial assault on Moscow in over twelve months, resulted in at least four fatalities and twelve injuries.
Three people died in the Moscow region: a woman was killed in Khimki when her home was struck, and two men perished in Pogorelki, where residential buildings suffered damage. A fourth death occurred in the Belgorod border region.
Russian authorities reported destroying 81 drones heading towards Moscow and a total of 556 across the country. Most injuries were near a Moscow oil refinery, which sustained no critical damage. Debris also fell at Sheremetyevo airport without causing harm.
A significant Ukrainian drone attack targeted multiple Russian regions overnight, including the capital. This widespread strike, the largest coordinated aerial assault on Moscow in over twelve months, resulted in at least four fatalities and twelve injuries.
Three people died in the Moscow region: a woman was killed in Khimki when her home was struck, and two men perished in Pogorelki, where residential buildings suffered damage. A fourth death occurred in the Belgorod border region.
Russian authorities reported destroying 81 drones heading towards Moscow and a total of 556 across the country. Most injuries were near a Moscow oil refinery, which sustained no critical damage. Debris also fell at Sheremetyevo airport without causing harm.
Global Bonds Hit Hard by Inflation & Geopolitical Woes
The US-China summit offered few breakthroughs, while the Middle East stalemate continues to fuel inflation. Oil prices remain over $100/barrel as the Strait of Hormuz situation remains tense, impacting global supply. A fragile calm may not last.
Inflation surged, with US prices seeing multi-year highs from the energy shock. Incoming Fed Chair Warsh faces a tough call; a rate hike now seems more probable than a cut to maintain credibility.
Global bond markets are reeling. US 30-year yields hit 2007 highs, and borrowing costs are surging across G7 economies. The UK is especially vulnerable amidst political turmoil.
Despite this, stock markets mostly shrugged off the gloom, buoyed by strong AI earnings from giants like Nvidia. However, Asian markets stumbled Friday, hinting that the bond rout's impact could spread.
The US-China summit offered few breakthroughs, while the Middle East stalemate continues to fuel inflation. Oil prices remain over $100/barrel as the Strait of Hormuz situation remains tense, impacting global supply. A fragile calm may not last.
Inflation surged, with US prices seeing multi-year highs from the energy shock. Incoming Fed Chair Warsh faces a tough call; a rate hike now seems more probable than a cut to maintain credibility.
Global bond markets are reeling. US 30-year yields hit 2007 highs, and borrowing costs are surging across G7 economies. The UK is especially vulnerable amidst political turmoil.
Despite this, stock markets mostly shrugged off the gloom, buoyed by strong AI earnings from giants like Nvidia. However, Asian markets stumbled Friday, hinting that the bond rout's impact could spread.