Sigma crypto chad
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My name is Sigma. With 12 years in trading and a stellar crypto team. I'm starting a diary on my trades.

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Bitcoin has become less volatile than gold - reports Bloomberg

The 30-day volatility of gold exceeded 44%, which was the maximum since the 2008 crisis, while BTC has this figure of about 39%.

During the day, gold lost about 21% (from ~$5,600 to ~$4400) - the sharpest drop in more than ten years, which calls into question its status as a "Defence asset", despite the correction of BTC by about 40% of the peak.

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The head of Bitwise's research department said that bitcoin will update historical highs this year

And yes, even in spite of the usual "four-year cycle" of the crypto market.

According to him, the long-term trajectory of BTC is determined by institutional demand, not by short-term market fluctuations.

Bitwise expects that within the next decade bitcoin will be able to reach $1 million if the inflow of capital from institutional players continues to accelerate.

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The focus of Bitcoin discussions has shifted from a possible rebound to speculation about how low the price could fall.

Blue bars β€” mentions of $50,000-59,000;
Red bars β€” mentions of $90,000-99,000.

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Bitcoin is testing a local low at $70,000.

The wave of liquidations is approaching $850 million in a day. Sentiment is negativeβ€”the Fear and Greed Index is in the panic zone (11).

The selloff hasn't only affected cryptoβ€”the stock market and metals are also slumping. Investors are posting significant losses.

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U.S. state pension funds suffer significant losses

This is related to investments in Strategy.

Against the background of the decline in the bitcoin exchange rate, the drawdown of 10 out of 11 funds exceeds 60%. According to some estimates, it's more than $300 million.

Strategy shares have falled from the peak by 76%. The paper loss of the bitcoin portfolio exceeded $3 billion.

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😭 Minus $4.4 billion vibe from Michael Sailor

The current drawdown of bitcoin directly hits the main rate of Michael Saylor's Strategy company.

The company's balance sheet now has 713,502 BTC with a total value of about $49.9 billion at the current price.

With an average entry price of Strategy of about $76,000, this gives an unrealised loss of about $4.4 billion.

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At night, bitcoin went down to $60,000

Thus provoking $2.5 billion in liquidations per day.

Ethereum was falling to $1750, BNB - $570, Solana - $68.

The index of fear and greed from Alternative collapsed to 9 points for the first time since 2022. CMC signals 5 points.

By morning, bitcoin quotations had recovered to $66,000.

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Whales sold over 80,000 BTC for $5.3 billion.

According to Santiment, over the past eight days, wallets with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold 81,068 BTC (~$5.3 billion), bringing their share of the total supply down to a nine-month low of 68.04%.

While major players are unloading, retailers are buying.

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Bitcoin miners are shutting down their equipment en masse amid record losses

The hash price (revenue per unit of computing power) has fallen to 3 cents per terahash. For comparison, this figure was $3.50 in 2017.

Newhedge analysts predict a decline in mining difficulty of more than 13% at the next reset. This would be the largest drop since the cryptocurrency ban in China in 2021.

The situation has hit public miner stocks. On February 5, CleanSpark shares fell 10%, MARA by 11%, TeraWulf by 8.5%, and Riot by 4.8%.

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Analyst at JPMorgan estimated the long-term potential of BTC above gold

Nikolaos Panigirtsoglu believes that in the long run bitcoin may look more attractive than gold, despite the drawdown from ~$126,000 to ~$60,000 and the outflow of funds from spot ETFs.

According to the bank's estimates, bitcoin is now trading below the estimated cost of mining (~$87,000), and its volatility is gradually approaching gold - a historically rare phenomenon.

To equalise the volume of private investment with gold (~$8 trillion), bitcoin would theoretically need a price of about $266,000 per coin.

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BitcoinOG insider 10/11short transferred 5,000 BTC ($351 million) to Binance

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Binance SAFU acquired 4,225 BTC ($300 million)

The fund's balance now stands at 10,455 BTC.

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Tether's gold reserves increased to 148 tons

Thus, in the last quarter of 2025, the company purchased about 26 tons of gold, and in January added another 6 tons.

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πŸͺ™ Major players used the recent market correction to aggressively accumulate bitcoin

Thus, on February 6, 66,940 BTC were credited to the wallets, which was the largest inflow of funds for the current market cycle.

At the same time, the Sharpe coefficient, which helps to assess the effectiveness of risk-adjusted investments, fell to -10 - the minimum since March 2023.

Darkfost analyst believes that the departure of the indicator to the negative zone historically indicates the final stage of the "bear".

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Bernstein analysts call the current fall the weakest "bear" scenario in the history of the asset

And also confirm the goal of $150,000 by the end of 2026.

According to their assessment, the market is experiencing a crisis of confidence rather than fundamental problems.

Neither system failures nor hidden leverage were found in the company - those factors that usually provoke real collapses. At the same time, the launch of bitcoin ETFs in the United States, growing liquidity and a more friendly position of the authorities create a strong basis for further growth.

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Glassnode reports that the current market structure resembles May 2022

That was the time the market experienced the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem, in case anyone has forgotten.

With Bitcoin at $70,000, the unrealized loss is ~16% of the market cap.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young-Joo stated that he sees no potential for a Bitcoin price pump, which is facing excessive selling pressure. Even a $308 billion influx in 2025 couldn't resolve the difficulties currently facing DAT companies that provided liquidity.

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