Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 #US vs #IRAN — The Cost of War and Peace

🇺🇸💸🪖Trump "halts" war with Iran, after spending $113 billion and agreeing to pay the Iranian regime $300 billion in "exit fees".

‼️"Iran deal includes $300 billion fund, more than half of which already committed" — Reuters

➡️ The framework agreement between the US and Iran provides for:

— Immediate, permanent end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon.

— US immediately lifts naval blockade on Iran, no further "interference".

— US withdraws all forces from the region within a month of a final deal.

— Iran lifts the Hormuz blockage within a month.

— US and "regional partners" commit to an Iran reconstruction plan, funded with at least $300 billion.

— If the final deal is implemented, US removes all current sanctions, including UN/IAEA resolutions.

— Iran commits to never build nuclear weapons; enriched uranium issue to be resolved in the final deal; until then, US allows status quo on Iran's nuclear program.

— US approves Iranian crude oil exports (including banking, insurance, shipping) and unfreezes all frozen Iranian funds.


➡️ The Cost of War

• Direct Military Spending: The Pentagon estimated direct military operations and munitions replacement at roughly $29 billion. Independent experts and economists argue this figure is a vast underestimate: the direct cost to be $72 billion in the first two months alone

• Macroeconomic and Energy Impacts: The conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil and fuel prices significantly. Economists and analysts indicate higher fuel and food costs have stripped households of tens of billions of dollars. Moody's estimated the cost per household was roughly $450, with overall indirect economic and energy impacts topping $100 billion

• Long-Term Projections: Long-term economic costs could range between $630 billion and $1 trillion when factoring in interest on war-related debt, inventory replenishment, infrastructure reconstruction, and future veterans' care


➡️ The Cost of Peace

🇮🇷 What Iran Receives:
✅ Immediately:
• Lifting of the naval blockade
• Permission for oil exports (full cycle: banking, insurance, shipping)
• Unfreezing of all frozen assets
• Cessation of US "interference"
• Preservation of the nuclear program's status quo (uranium enrichment continues)

✅ Within a month:
• Unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz
• Withdrawal of American troops from the region

✅ Upon final implementation:
• Full lifting of sanctions, including UN/IAEA resolutions
• $300 billion for reconstruction


🇺🇸 What the US Receives:
• Iran's promise "never to create nuclear weapons" (oral/written)

• Cessation of hostilities (including Lebanon/Hezbollah)

• The question of enriched uranium deferred to the "final deal"


Trump paid for the right to surrender. Or, if you prefer, bought himself the opportunity to declare "victory" and exit the war.

Compared to Iraq (>$2 trillion over 20 years), this looks like a "cheap" exit. But unlike Iraq, here the US gained neither regime change, nor democracy, nor control over the nuclear program. Only promises.

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🇺🇦⚠️Дальнобойные санкции Украины

🔥🛢🇷🇺 Москва, 18 июня. Горит НПЗ в Капотне. Этот НПЗ обеспечивает до 40% топливного рынка в столичном регионе и уже был атакован 17 мая и 16 июня.

МО РФ сообщило, что "сбито" 555 дронов. В Московских аэропортах отменены и задержаны уже 527 рейсов.
Индекс Мосбиржи рухнул до 2457 пунктов, обновив минимум за 1,5 года.

UPD:
992 дрона, четыре крылатые ракеты большой дальности и 10 авиабомб сбила ПВО России за сутки, сообщило Минобороны.
Мэр Москвы Собянин уточнил, что погибших и пострадавших среди мирных жителей нет.

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🇺🇦⚠️Ukraine’s long-range sanctions

🔥🛢🇷🇺 Moscow, June 18. An oil refinery in Kapotnya is on fire. This refinery supplies up to 40% of the fuel market in the capital region and had previously been attacked on May 17 and June 16.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 555 drones had been "shot down." A total of 527 flights have already been cancelled or delayed at Moscow airports.
The MOEX Index collapsed to 2,457 points, hitting a new 18-month low.

UPD:
Russian air defenses shot down 992 drones, four long-range cruise missiles, and 10 aerial bombs over the past 24 hours, the Ministry of Defense reported.
Moscow Mayor Sobyanin clarified that there were no civilian casualties.

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