Forwarded from infinityhedge
Media is too big
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BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets:
Client Interest: Our client base today, their interest overwhelmingly is in bitcoin first and then somewhat in ETH. There's definitely interest in ETH too, and there's very little interest today beyond those two.
ETF Holder Behavior: There has been a remarkable degree of long-term "buy and hold" behavior from ETF holders so far. IBIT has only had one day of negative flows in 6.5 months since launching in January. They expect this will change over time, and they'll likely see more negative flow days in the future as that would be natural.
Adoption Stage: The Bitcoin ETF has been highly successful, but it's still early days, especially for institutional and wealth advisory adoption.. Most wealth advisory platforms are still at the 'unsolicited' stage for Bitcoin ETFs, with 'solicited' status likely to come later this year or beyond.
Allocation: Independent advisors allocating to Bitcoin ETFs are typically doing so in the 2-3% range.
Bitcoin's Unique Position: BlackRock views Bitcoin not as a simple 'risk-on' asset, but as an asset with unique fundamental drivers and potential as a flight-to-safety asset.
ETH ETF Demand: expect ETH ETF demand to be about 20%-25% of Bitcoin ETF demand in the long term.
Bitcoin's Correlation: There's one macro risk factor where bitcoin is highly exposed and highly correlated to so called risk assets. And that is that bitcoin is massively short real interest rates.
Future Outlook: I don't think we're going to see a long list of crypto ETF's. If you think of bitcoin today, 55% of the market cap ETH at 18%, the next plausible investable assets, like 3%. There's just nothing close to being at that threshold of track record and maturity, liquidity, et cetera, that bitcoin, and to a lesser extent eth have.
Client Interest: Our client base today, their interest overwhelmingly is in bitcoin first and then somewhat in ETH. There's definitely interest in ETH too, and there's very little interest today beyond those two.
ETF Holder Behavior: There has been a remarkable degree of long-term "buy and hold" behavior from ETF holders so far. IBIT has only had one day of negative flows in 6.5 months since launching in January. They expect this will change over time, and they'll likely see more negative flow days in the future as that would be natural.
Adoption Stage: The Bitcoin ETF has been highly successful, but it's still early days, especially for institutional and wealth advisory adoption.. Most wealth advisory platforms are still at the 'unsolicited' stage for Bitcoin ETFs, with 'solicited' status likely to come later this year or beyond.
Allocation: Independent advisors allocating to Bitcoin ETFs are typically doing so in the 2-3% range.
Bitcoin's Unique Position: BlackRock views Bitcoin not as a simple 'risk-on' asset, but as an asset with unique fundamental drivers and potential as a flight-to-safety asset.
ETH ETF Demand: expect ETH ETF demand to be about 20%-25% of Bitcoin ETF demand in the long term.
Bitcoin's Correlation: There's one macro risk factor where bitcoin is highly exposed and highly correlated to so called risk assets. And that is that bitcoin is massively short real interest rates.
Future Outlook: I don't think we're going to see a long list of crypto ETF's. If you think of bitcoin today, 55% of the market cap ETH at 18%, the next plausible investable assets, like 3%. There's just nothing close to being at that threshold of track record and maturity, liquidity, et cetera, that bitcoin, and to a lesser extent eth have.
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Forwarded from Rafiki research
주말 칼럼 “트레이딩을 잘하기 위한 몸부림”
트레이딩을 잘 하기 위해 뭐든 하는 친구는 1) 높은 민도 2) 좋은 루틴 3) 퀄리티 있는 동료가 중요하다고 했습니다. 또 중요한 건 민도, 루틴, 동료들을 지키는데 방해되는 다른 일들을 하지 않는 겁니다. 이번 주가 힘들었다면 주말엔 다른 일을 멈춰 보는 것도 좋을 것 같습니다.
https://rafikiresearch.blogspot.com/
트레이딩을 잘 하기 위해 뭐든 하는 친구는 1) 높은 민도 2) 좋은 루틴 3) 퀄리티 있는 동료가 중요하다고 했습니다. 또 중요한 건 민도, 루틴, 동료들을 지키는데 방해되는 다른 일들을 하지 않는 겁니다. 이번 주가 힘들었다면 주말엔 다른 일을 멈춰 보는 것도 좋을 것 같습니다.
https://rafikiresearch.blogspot.com/
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Rafiki Research
글로벌 매크로와 한국 주식 투자 관련 정보, 데이터, 분석을 제공하는 리서치입니다.
👍6❤2
$GBTC 및 $ETHE 보유량 및 유출 분석
$GBTC와 $ETHE의 보유량 변동과 유출 흐름을 분석한 결과,
$GBTC는 지난 137일 동안 일 평균 -0.6%씩 유출되었으며,
최대 유출 비율은 -3%를 초과하지 않았습니다.
(특히, ETF 승인 이후 1주일 동안 $GBTC의 유출이 두드러졌습니다.)
반면, $ETHE는 최근 3일 동안 일 평균 -4.6%의 높은 유출 비율을 보였으며,
이는 $GBTC의 유출 추세와 비교해 더 빠른 속도로 진행되고 있습니다.
이러한 가정을 토대로 $ETHE의 유출 동향이 지속된다면,
18일 후인 8월 15일경 $GBTC와 유사한 유출 수준에 도달할 것으로 예상됩니다.
$GBTC와 $ETHE의 보유량 변동과 유출 흐름을 분석한 결과,
$GBTC는 지난 137일 동안 일 평균 -0.6%씩 유출되었으며,
최대 유출 비율은 -3%를 초과하지 않았습니다.
(특히, ETF 승인 이후 1주일 동안 $GBTC의 유출이 두드러졌습니다.)
반면, $ETHE는 최근 3일 동안 일 평균 -4.6%의 높은 유출 비율을 보였으며,
이는 $GBTC의 유출 추세와 비교해 더 빠른 속도로 진행되고 있습니다.
이러한 가정을 토대로 $ETHE의 유출 동향이 지속된다면,
18일 후인 8월 15일경 $GBTC와 유사한 유출 수준에 도달할 것으로 예상됩니다.
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