Iran -> Non-hostile ships can transit Strait of Hormuz

5 points from Iran's Foreign Ministry. Verbatim👇

1. "Non-hostile vessels... benefit from safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities"

2. "Vessels, equipment & any assets belonging to the aggressor parties - namely U.S. & the Israeli regime... do not qualify for innocent or non-hostile passage"

3. "Responsibility for any disruption, insecurity, or escalation of risks in this critical waterway & its surrounding region rests squarely with the U.S. & Israeli regime"

4. "The full restoration of security & sustainable stability in the Strait is contingent upon the cessation of military aggression & threats... and full respect for Iran’s legitimate rights & interests"

5. "The Strait of Hormuz remains open & maritime traffic has not been suspended. Navigation continues, subject to compliance with the necessary measures referenced above"

Excise duty reduced via 26 Mar 2026 notification targeting cost relief for consumers and industry

Fuel prices may fall transport costs ease inflation impact expected to soften across economy

Good news for the day.....

diesel Nil excise duty
Petrol from 13 to 3 rs

AI will predict what you think and how you will react based on your data they have.

Interesting times ahead.

https://x.com/aiatmeta/status/2037153756346016207?s=46

Tomorrows reversal could be game changer

I feel a temporary bottom here with reversal likely up to 24200 before new low around May 7/8th

This is the biggest risk rn

IT companies laying off like anything

up down time pass chal raha

IRANIAN PARLIAMENT: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL NOT OPEN, WE HAVE NOT HELD ANY NEGOTIATIONS, AND WE WILL NOT HOLD THEM

First negative of today...
US PRES TRUMP: I AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING PULLING OUT OF NATO

Dont get influenced by the news...

IEA CHIEF BIROL:

CONSIDERING FURTHER RELEASE OF STRATEGIC RESERVES, 'IF WE THINK THERE IS NEED OF CRUDE OIL OR PRODUCTS, WE MAY INTERVENE'

Good recovery from day lows !!!

INR now 93 Rs per $ sharp reversal from 95.5 highs

Govt sources say FY26 indirect tax collections reached 101% of revised target, while the Centre will forgo Rs 18B via a 3 month customs duty cut on plastics and petrochemical inputs to ease costs and support supply.

BTST

HEG

As Brent crude hovers near $105–$107 per barrel in April 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions, the "Upstream" sector (Exploration & Production) stands as the primary beneficiary. Unlike refiners who suffer from high input costs, these companies sell what they extract at global market rates.

1. ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation)

How it Benefits: As India’s largest producer (~70% of domestic output), its revenue is directly pegged to Brent benchmarks. It is currently accelerating a $20 billion drilling program to bolster India’s energy security.Expected Margin Improvement: * Sensitivity: Historically, every $1/bbl increase in Brent crude improves ONGC’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) by approximately 7%.EBITDA Margins: With production costs relatively "sticky" or fixed, a jump from $80 to $100+ crude can expand operating margins by 15–20% on every incremental barrel produced.Key Risks: * Windfall Tax (SAED): The Government reintroduced the Windfall Tax in March 2026. This acts as a "cap" on super-profits, effectively limiting the upside if crude stays high for too long.Production Stagnation: Aging wells require high Capex just to maintain current output levels.

2. Oil India Ltd (OIL)

How it Benefits: A "pure-play" explorer with a lean structure and heavy focus on the Northeast. It has less "downstream" baggage than integrated players, making its stock more reactive to crude price spikes.Expected Margin Improvement: * Sensitivity: Even more sensitive than ONGC; a $1/bbl rise can boost its EPS by roughly 12%.Operating Leverage: Due to its smaller base, the "margin pop" during a price doubling is typically more pronounced, often leading to double-digit stock rallies in short windows.Key Risks: * Geopolitical/Regional Issues: Operations are concentrated in specific zones (Assam/Northeast), making them susceptible to local disruptions.Windfall Tax: Like ONGC, it is a primary target for government profit-sharing levies.

3. Reliance Industries (RIL) - Upstream Segment

How it Benefits: While primarily known for refining, Reliance’s KG-D6 basin gas and oil production is a significant high-margin contributor. High global prices allow them to realize better value for domestic gas (linked to global hubs).Expected Margin Improvement: * Upstream margins are expected to remain robust, helping offset the "marketing losses" or tax pressures faced by its refining arm.Key Risks: * Export Taxes: New taxes on Diesel and ATF exports (introduced/revised April 2026) directly hit Reliance’s refining margins, making the "Upstream gain" a necessary hedge for the overall company.