#GBPNZD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
GBP/NZD: Political Noise Meets a Hawkish Kiwi at a Critical Apex
Sterling enters this week on a mixed footing. Last month's Bank of England decision struck a notably hawkish tone, with the vote split 6-3 in favor of holding rates, three members pushed for a hike, a signal the Bank remains genuinely worried about inflation as Middle East-driven energy costs work through the economy. Yet political uncertainty continues to simmer following Keir Starmer's unexpected June resignation, leaving fiscal credibility, and by extension sterling, more sensitive than usual to how Labour manages the transition.
The kiwi, meanwhile, is being propped up almost entirely by rate expectations. Markets currently price an 88% probability of an RBNZ hike in September, even after New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to a decade-high 5.6%. UBS argues the labor data isn't as bearish as it looks, since the rise was driven mainly by more people entering the workforce rather than layoffs, keeping the central bank's tightening path intact. Softer inflation expectations and a weaker July manufacturing PMI, however, have started to inject some doubt into just how far the RBNZ can realistically go.
The result: a pound navigating political noise against a kiwi riding hawkish rate bets that may be more fragile than markets currently assume.
Technical Analysis of GBP/NZD
As GBP/NZD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since early June, with a descending trendline from July's highs near 2.3550 converging with an ascending trendline off June's lows, both meeting right around current price near 2.2900-2.2980, where the 100-period EMA also sits. This confluence, together with the well-established 2.2900-2.3100 support and resistance zone, marks a decisive juncture for the pair.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and reclaim the 100-period EMA, the path would open toward the 2.3100 resistance, the upper boundary of the recent range. A confirmed break above this zone, and the descending trendline itself, would signal a genuine shift in momentum, opening the door toward a retest of the July highs near 2.3550.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 2.2900 support would expose the broader downtrend that has dominated since early July, with price risking a slide back toward the 2.2800 area and beyond, as the months-long descending structure reasserts itself.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, GBP/NZD looks primed for a decisive move—will sterling's political noise finally give way to the kiwi's rate story, or does this range hold just a little longer?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/NZD: Political Noise Meets a Hawkish Kiwi at a Critical Apex
Sterling enters this week on a mixed footing. Last month's Bank of England decision struck a notably hawkish tone, with the vote split 6-3 in favor of holding rates, three members pushed for a hike, a signal the Bank remains genuinely worried about inflation as Middle East-driven energy costs work through the economy. Yet political uncertainty continues to simmer following Keir Starmer's unexpected June resignation, leaving fiscal credibility, and by extension sterling, more sensitive than usual to how Labour manages the transition.
The kiwi, meanwhile, is being propped up almost entirely by rate expectations. Markets currently price an 88% probability of an RBNZ hike in September, even after New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to a decade-high 5.6%. UBS argues the labor data isn't as bearish as it looks, since the rise was driven mainly by more people entering the workforce rather than layoffs, keeping the central bank's tightening path intact. Softer inflation expectations and a weaker July manufacturing PMI, however, have started to inject some doubt into just how far the RBNZ can realistically go.
The result: a pound navigating political noise against a kiwi riding hawkish rate bets that may be more fragile than markets currently assume.
Technical Analysis of GBP/NZD
As GBP/NZD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since early June, with a descending trendline from July's highs near 2.3550 converging with an ascending trendline off June's lows, both meeting right around current price near 2.2900-2.2980, where the 100-period EMA also sits. This confluence, together with the well-established 2.2900-2.3100 support and resistance zone, marks a decisive juncture for the pair.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and reclaim the 100-period EMA, the path would open toward the 2.3100 resistance, the upper boundary of the recent range. A confirmed break above this zone, and the descending trendline itself, would signal a genuine shift in momentum, opening the door toward a retest of the July highs near 2.3550.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 2.2900 support would expose the broader downtrend that has dominated since early July, with price risking a slide back toward the 2.2800 area and beyond, as the months-long descending structure reasserts itself.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, GBP/NZD looks primed for a decisive move—will sterling's political noise finally give way to the kiwi's rate story, or does this range hold just a little longer?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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AUD/CAD: Two Hawkish Central Banks, One Triangle Left to Break
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent reaffirmed that tighter policy is working as intended, with markets now pricing roughly a 70% chance of one final hike to 4.60% by early next year, even as inflation eased below forecasts last quarter. That combination of commodity strength, gold, iron ore and LNG all running above forecast, and a still-hawkish central bank has kept AUD broadly supported near multi-week highs, with all eyes now on Thursday's July employment report.
The loonie tells an even stronger story. Canada's economy expanded at a blistering 3.4% annualised pace in Q2, well above the Bank of Canada's own 2.5% forecast, while July employment surged by 75,100 jobs against expectations of just 15,000, pulling unemployment down to a two-year low of 6.4%. That combination of surprising growth and labour market strength has fuelled speculation the BoC could hike if elevated energy prices persist, giving CAD real independent momentum of its own.
The result: two resource-linked currencies both riding genuinely hawkish narratives, leaving AUD/CAD's next move to hinge on which central bank blinks first.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
As the chart shows, AUD/CAD has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle since early August, with a descending trendline from the 0.9926 high converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.9748 low, both meeting right around current price near 0.9847, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline and the 0.382 retracement near 0.9858, the path would open towards the 0 level at 0.9926, a confirmed breakout that would suggest genuine momentum returning to the pair.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.5 retracement near 0.9837 would expose the 0.618 level near 0.9816, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.786 retracement around 0.9786, or even the 0.9748 low that anchored this entire structure.With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, AUD/CAD looks primed for a decisive break, will the Aussie's hawkish backing prove enough, or does the loonie's stronger data ultimately win out?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/CAD: Two Hawkish Central Banks, One Triangle Left to Break
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent reaffirmed that tighter policy is working as intended, with markets now pricing roughly a 70% chance of one final hike to 4.60% by early next year, even as inflation eased below forecasts last quarter. That combination of commodity strength, gold, iron ore and LNG all running above forecast, and a still-hawkish central bank has kept AUD broadly supported near multi-week highs, with all eyes now on Thursday's July employment report.
The loonie tells an even stronger story. Canada's economy expanded at a blistering 3.4% annualised pace in Q2, well above the Bank of Canada's own 2.5% forecast, while July employment surged by 75,100 jobs against expectations of just 15,000, pulling unemployment down to a two-year low of 6.4%. That combination of surprising growth and labour market strength has fuelled speculation the BoC could hike if elevated energy prices persist, giving CAD real independent momentum of its own.
The result: two resource-linked currencies both riding genuinely hawkish narratives, leaving AUD/CAD's next move to hinge on which central bank blinks first.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
As the chart shows, AUD/CAD has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle since early August, with a descending trendline from the 0.9926 high converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.9748 low, both meeting right around current price near 0.9847, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline and the 0.382 retracement near 0.9858, the path would open towards the 0 level at 0.9926, a confirmed breakout that would suggest genuine momentum returning to the pair.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.5 retracement near 0.9837 would expose the 0.618 level near 0.9816, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.786 retracement around 0.9786, or even the 0.9748 low that anchored this entire structure.With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, AUD/CAD looks primed for a decisive break, will the Aussie's hawkish backing prove enough, or does the loonie's stronger data ultimately win out?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURUSD #GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
Euro and Pound Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMC Minutes
The euro and British pound are trading cautiously against the US dollar as markets await the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. At its July meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data.
Investors will pay particular attention to how FOMC members assessed inflation risks, labour-market conditions and the outlook for interest rates. Following softer inflation data and signs of a cooling labour market, a more dovish tone in the minutes could strengthen expectations of monetary easing and weigh on the dollar. Conversely, a continued emphasis on inflation risks and a restrictive policy stance could provide additional support for the US currency.
For sterling, today’s UK inflation figures will provide an additional catalyst. The data will be closely assessed for clues about the Bank of England’s next policy steps. Persistent price pressures could reduce the scope for further monetary easing and support the pound, while a more pronounced slowdown in inflation could reinforce expectations of lower interest rates.
With few major domestic catalysts for the euro, EUR/USD is likely to remain particularly sensitive to movements in the US dollar. As a result, the FOMC minutes could become a key driver of the pair’s next move.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD tested the June highs near 1.1600 yesterday. From a technical perspective, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.1660–1.1680 if the previous session’s high is successfully turned into a support level.
Failure to establish a firm foothold above the current levels, however, could trigger a corrective move and bring the pair back towards the 1.1500 support area.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 12:30 (GMT+3): German 10-year Bund auction;
▪️today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️today at 21:00 (GMT+3): release of the FOMC minutes.
Euro and Pound Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMC Minutes
The euro and British pound are trading cautiously against the US dollar as markets await the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. At its July meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data.
Investors will pay particular attention to how FOMC members assessed inflation risks, labour-market conditions and the outlook for interest rates. Following softer inflation data and signs of a cooling labour market, a more dovish tone in the minutes could strengthen expectations of monetary easing and weigh on the dollar. Conversely, a continued emphasis on inflation risks and a restrictive policy stance could provide additional support for the US currency.
For sterling, today’s UK inflation figures will provide an additional catalyst. The data will be closely assessed for clues about the Bank of England’s next policy steps. Persistent price pressures could reduce the scope for further monetary easing and support the pound, while a more pronounced slowdown in inflation could reinforce expectations of lower interest rates.
With few major domestic catalysts for the euro, EUR/USD is likely to remain particularly sensitive to movements in the US dollar. As a result, the FOMC minutes could become a key driver of the pair’s next move.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD tested the June highs near 1.1600 yesterday. From a technical perspective, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.1660–1.1680 if the previous session’s high is successfully turned into a support level.
Failure to establish a firm foothold above the current levels, however, could trigger a corrective move and bring the pair back towards the 1.1500 support area.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 12:30 (GMT+3): German 10-year Bund auction;
▪️today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️today at 21:00 (GMT+3): release of the FOMC minutes.
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#USDJPY #USDCAD #tradingtips #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Dollar Under Pressure as Treasury Yields Fall: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Await Fresh Data
The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort to support market liquidity. Against this backdrop, the 30-year Treasury yield fell by around 9 basis points to 5.19%.
The decline in yields has weakened one of the key sources of support for the dollar and has been particularly significant for USD/JPY, which remains highly sensitive to movements in the US bond market.
The recently released FOMC minutes provided a counterweight. The minutes revealed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks, with several officials favouring a rate hike as early as the July meeting. This kept the overall tone relatively hawkish. Although policymakers were divided over whether an immediate rate increase was necessary, inflation risks remain a central concern for the Federal Reserve, while future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data.
Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic figures. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 24.1 from 41.4, while initial jobless claims are forecast at 210,000. Weaker-than-expected figures could put additional pressure on the dollar, whereas resilient data may allow the currency to recover some of its recent losses.
For the Canadian dollar, commodity-price data will provide an additional catalyst. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected to decline by 1.8% following a 6.9% drop in the previous month, making the actual reading potentially important for the further direction of USD/CAD.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY made several unsuccessful attempts to approach the key 160.00 resistance level before sharply retreating towards 158.00 as US Treasury yields declined.
If selling pressure on the dollar persists, the pair could move towards the 156.70–157.20 area. At the same time, a corrective rebound following yesterday’s decline could lift the pair towards 158.60–159.20.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims;
▪️tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Japan national core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Dollar Under Pressure as Treasury Yields Fall: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Await Fresh Data
The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort to support market liquidity. Against this backdrop, the 30-year Treasury yield fell by around 9 basis points to 5.19%.
The decline in yields has weakened one of the key sources of support for the dollar and has been particularly significant for USD/JPY, which remains highly sensitive to movements in the US bond market.
The recently released FOMC minutes provided a counterweight. The minutes revealed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks, with several officials favouring a rate hike as early as the July meeting. This kept the overall tone relatively hawkish. Although policymakers were divided over whether an immediate rate increase was necessary, inflation risks remain a central concern for the Federal Reserve, while future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data.
Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic figures. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 24.1 from 41.4, while initial jobless claims are forecast at 210,000. Weaker-than-expected figures could put additional pressure on the dollar, whereas resilient data may allow the currency to recover some of its recent losses.
For the Canadian dollar, commodity-price data will provide an additional catalyst. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected to decline by 1.8% following a 6.9% drop in the previous month, making the actual reading potentially important for the further direction of USD/CAD.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY made several unsuccessful attempts to approach the key 160.00 resistance level before sharply retreating towards 158.00 as US Treasury yields declined.
If selling pressure on the dollar persists, the pair could move towards the 156.70–157.20 area. At the same time, a corrective rebound following yesterday’s decline could lift the pair towards 158.60–159.20.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims;
▪️tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Japan national core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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#USDJPY #USDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
USD/CAD
USD/CAD remains in a broader downtrend following the formation of a “tower” pattern in early July. Yesterday, sellers tested the important 1.3800 support level.
A sustained break below yesterday’s low could open the way towards 1.3730–1.3760. If 1.3800 continues to hold as support, however, the pair could stage a recovery towards 1.3840–1.3870.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI);
▪️today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Leading Economic Indicators;
▪️tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian core retail sales.
Outlook
USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain caught between opposing fundamental forces. Falling Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, while the relatively hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes is limiting the scope for a deeper decline.
The market’s attention is now turning to the latest US economic data. Weaker figures could extend the dollar’s correction and increase downside pressure on USD/JPY and USD/CAD, while stronger-than-expected releases could restore support for the US currency and trigger a recovery in both pairs.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD remains in a broader downtrend following the formation of a “tower” pattern in early July. Yesterday, sellers tested the important 1.3800 support level.
A sustained break below yesterday’s low could open the way towards 1.3730–1.3760. If 1.3800 continues to hold as support, however, the pair could stage a recovery towards 1.3840–1.3870.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI);
▪️today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Leading Economic Indicators;
▪️tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian core retail sales.
Outlook
USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain caught between opposing fundamental forces. Falling Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, while the relatively hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes is limiting the scope for a deeper decline.
The market’s attention is now turning to the latest US economic data. Weaker figures could extend the dollar’s correction and increase downside pressure on USD/JPY and USD/CAD, while stronger-than-expected releases could restore support for the US currency and trigger a recovery in both pairs.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
AUD/CAD Analysis: Gap Pushes Price Beyond the Broadening Triangle
On 19 August, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser adopted a more hawkish tone, warning that another rate increase could become necessary if the inflation risks highlighted by the central bank — including the conflict in the Middle East, a surge in demand from the AI sector and weak productivity — begin to materialise.
His comments came one week after the RBA decided on 11 August to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting.
For the Canadian dollar, oil prices remain a more important driver. Crude has continued to rise this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher oil prices can traditionally support the Canadian dollar given the country's significant commodity exports.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
On the four-hour AUD/CAD chart, a medium-term sideways range has been developing since April. Within this range, the price has formed a broadening triangle, characterised by trendlines that diverge rather than converge and reflecting progressively wider price swings.
On Monday, 24 August, trading opened with a gap above the upper boundary of the formation. If the bullish impulse continues to develop, the next significant obstacle could be the red resistance level at 0.9925.
A failed breakout and subsequent reversal lower would bring several key levels within the current market profile into focus. These include the upper profile boundary at 0.9850, the Point of Control (POC) at 0.9832 and the lower profile boundary at 0.9815.
Below the profile's main area of concentration, near the base of the triangle, lies the green support zone around 0.9785.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 71, 48 and 50. The oscillator is approaching overbought territory, while both moving averages remain around the middle of the neutral zone, providing little confirmation of the strength of the current move.
Key Takeaways
The elevated RSI reading and neutral moving averages are yet to produce a coordinated signal, leaving the sustainability of the gap and the attempted breakout uncertain.
The fundamental backdrop is also sending mixed signals. The RBA's increasingly hawkish rhetoric provides support for the Australian dollar, while higher oil prices could strengthen the Canadian dollar. The balance between these two forces may prove decisive for the next move in AUD/CAD.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/CAD Analysis: Gap Pushes Price Beyond the Broadening Triangle
On 19 August, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser adopted a more hawkish tone, warning that another rate increase could become necessary if the inflation risks highlighted by the central bank — including the conflict in the Middle East, a surge in demand from the AI sector and weak productivity — begin to materialise.
His comments came one week after the RBA decided on 11 August to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting.
For the Canadian dollar, oil prices remain a more important driver. Crude has continued to rise this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher oil prices can traditionally support the Canadian dollar given the country's significant commodity exports.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
On the four-hour AUD/CAD chart, a medium-term sideways range has been developing since April. Within this range, the price has formed a broadening triangle, characterised by trendlines that diverge rather than converge and reflecting progressively wider price swings.
On Monday, 24 August, trading opened with a gap above the upper boundary of the formation. If the bullish impulse continues to develop, the next significant obstacle could be the red resistance level at 0.9925.
A failed breakout and subsequent reversal lower would bring several key levels within the current market profile into focus. These include the upper profile boundary at 0.9850, the Point of Control (POC) at 0.9832 and the lower profile boundary at 0.9815.
Below the profile's main area of concentration, near the base of the triangle, lies the green support zone around 0.9785.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 71, 48 and 50. The oscillator is approaching overbought territory, while both moving averages remain around the middle of the neutral zone, providing little confirmation of the strength of the current move.
Key Takeaways
The elevated RSI reading and neutral moving averages are yet to produce a coordinated signal, leaving the sustainability of the gap and the attempted breakout uncertain.
The fundamental backdrop is also sending mixed signals. The RBA's increasingly hawkish rhetoric provides support for the Australian dollar, while higher oil prices could strengthen the Canadian dollar. The balance between these two forces may prove decisive for the next move in AUD/CAD.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
EUR/USD Analysis: Is the Dollar Rally Really Over?
EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.
The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar's decline.
In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB's 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.
With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
As the daily EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has broken decisively above the descending trendline that had capped price action since the February highs, marking a significant shift in the medium-term structure.
The pair is now trading around 1.1665, comfortably above both the 100-period EMA at 1.1546 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1579. The breakout has also lifted EUR/USD away from the 1.1537–1.1495 support area, leaving the 1.1714 Fibonacci resistance level as the next major test.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers can maintain control above the 1.1579 Fibonacci level and the 100-period EMA, the bullish structure remains intact.
A break above 1.1714 would open the way towards the 1.1775–1.1800 resistance zone, where previous price action has repeatedly stalled. A sustained move above this area would strengthen the case for a broader recovery and suggest that the longer-term downtrend may have been decisively reversed.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at 1.1714 followed by a break below 1.1579 would weaken the current setup and expose the 100-period EMA around 1.1546, which is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.1537.
A deeper decline through this confluence would bring the 0.618 retracement at 1.1495 into focus, followed by 1.1435 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the next downside references.
With EUR/USD testing major Fibonacci resistance after breaking above its descending trendline, the key question is whether buyers can turn the breakout into a sustained advance towards 1.1800, or whether resistance will once again send the pair back towards its key support zone.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
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EUR/USD Analysis: Is the Dollar Rally Really Over?
EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.
The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar's decline.
In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB's 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.
With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
As the daily EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has broken decisively above the descending trendline that had capped price action since the February highs, marking a significant shift in the medium-term structure.
The pair is now trading around 1.1665, comfortably above both the 100-period EMA at 1.1546 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1579. The breakout has also lifted EUR/USD away from the 1.1537–1.1495 support area, leaving the 1.1714 Fibonacci resistance level as the next major test.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers can maintain control above the 1.1579 Fibonacci level and the 100-period EMA, the bullish structure remains intact.
A break above 1.1714 would open the way towards the 1.1775–1.1800 resistance zone, where previous price action has repeatedly stalled. A sustained move above this area would strengthen the case for a broader recovery and suggest that the longer-term downtrend may have been decisively reversed.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at 1.1714 followed by a break below 1.1579 would weaken the current setup and expose the 100-period EMA around 1.1546, which is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.1537.
A deeper decline through this confluence would bring the 0.618 retracement at 1.1495 into focus, followed by 1.1435 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the next downside references.
With EUR/USD testing major Fibonacci resistance after breaking above its descending trendline, the key question is whether buyers can turn the breakout into a sustained advance towards 1.1800, or whether resistance will once again send the pair back towards its key support zone.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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EUR/GBP: Two Weeks of Compression Reach Their Breaking Point
The euro is closing out August with genuine momentum, having climbed to $1.1697 against the dollar, its strongest level in three months, on the back of ECB hike bets that keep gaining traction. French and Spanish inflation both surprised to the upside, with Spain's harmonised reading hitting 4.5%, its highest since 2023, reinforcing market expectations that the ECB deposit rate could climb to 2.80% by next March, from 2.25% currently. A September hike is now seen as roughly 60% likely.
Sterling, meanwhile, is navigating a genuinely awkward domestic backdrop. The Bank of England's July decision, a 6–3 hold with three members pushing for a hike, initially read as hawkish, but Governor Bailey used his press conference to firmly close the door on near-term hike bets anyway. UK inflation eased to 2.9%, yet the labour market cooled more sharply than expected, with private-sector wage growth hitting its softest pace since 2020, leaving the BoE genuinely torn between growth resilience and a weakening jobs picture.
The result: an ECB gaining real conviction towards further tightening, versus a Bank of England sending increasingly mixed signals just as political uncertainty around Downing Street's succession continues to simmer in the background.
Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP
As the EUR/GBP chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a tightening symmetrical triangle since mid-August, with a descending trendline from the 0.8587 highs converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.8480 lows, both meeting right around the current price near 0.8569, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 0.8587 highs, the 0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the recent pullback. A confirmed breakout above that level would signal genuine bullish continuation for the euro.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 100-period EMA would expose the 0.382 retracement near 0.8536, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.5 level around 0.8521.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, EUR/GBP looks primed for a decisive break. Will the ECB's hawkish momentum finally push the euro through resistance, or will sterling's political noise keep the pair capped?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/GBP: Two Weeks of Compression Reach Their Breaking Point
The euro is closing out August with genuine momentum, having climbed to $1.1697 against the dollar, its strongest level in three months, on the back of ECB hike bets that keep gaining traction. French and Spanish inflation both surprised to the upside, with Spain's harmonised reading hitting 4.5%, its highest since 2023, reinforcing market expectations that the ECB deposit rate could climb to 2.80% by next March, from 2.25% currently. A September hike is now seen as roughly 60% likely.
Sterling, meanwhile, is navigating a genuinely awkward domestic backdrop. The Bank of England's July decision, a 6–3 hold with three members pushing for a hike, initially read as hawkish, but Governor Bailey used his press conference to firmly close the door on near-term hike bets anyway. UK inflation eased to 2.9%, yet the labour market cooled more sharply than expected, with private-sector wage growth hitting its softest pace since 2020, leaving the BoE genuinely torn between growth resilience and a weakening jobs picture.
The result: an ECB gaining real conviction towards further tightening, versus a Bank of England sending increasingly mixed signals just as political uncertainty around Downing Street's succession continues to simmer in the background.
Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP
As the EUR/GBP chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a tightening symmetrical triangle since mid-August, with a descending trendline from the 0.8587 highs converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.8480 lows, both meeting right around the current price near 0.8569, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 0.8587 highs, the 0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the recent pullback. A confirmed breakout above that level would signal genuine bullish continuation for the euro.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 100-period EMA would expose the 0.382 retracement near 0.8536, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.5 level around 0.8521.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, EUR/GBP looks primed for a decisive break. Will the ECB's hawkish momentum finally push the euro through resistance, or will sterling's political noise keep the pair capped?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#USDJPY #USDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Dollar Continues to Strengthen: ADP and Bank of Canada Decision in Focus
The US dollar continues to strengthen following its previous period of weakness, gradually recovering ground against the major currencies. Today, market attention will be focused on the preliminary ADP employment figures for the US. According to forecasts, the private sector is expected to have added 48K jobs, following an increase of 44K the previous month. A significant deviation from expectations could increase dollar volatility and prompt a reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy.
The situation in the Middle East remains another important factor. Tensions surrounding Iran continue to support demand for safe-haven assets and increase volatility in the oil market. Stronger demand for safe havens could also support the yen and partially limit the upside potential of USD/JPY.
For USD/CAD, the Bank of Canada's meeting will be the key event. The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, meaning that attention will focus primarily on the accompanying statement and press conference. A more dovish tone could increase pressure on the Canadian dollar and support further gains in the pair.
Oil will remain another important driver. EIA crude inventory data and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran could have a significant impact on oil prices and, consequently, on the Canadian dollar.
USD/JPY
Following last week's recovery, USD/JPY has once again tested the important 159.40–159.80 support area. Yesterday, buyers managed to establish the pair above the psychological 160.00 level.
If the US employment data comes in stronger than expected, the advance could continue towards 160.50–161.00. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a firm move below 159.40.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Applications;
▪️today at 15:15 (GMT+3): US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change;
▪️tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+3): Japan Services PMI.
Dollar Continues to Strengthen: ADP and Bank of Canada Decision in Focus
The US dollar continues to strengthen following its previous period of weakness, gradually recovering ground against the major currencies. Today, market attention will be focused on the preliminary ADP employment figures for the US. According to forecasts, the private sector is expected to have added 48K jobs, following an increase of 44K the previous month. A significant deviation from expectations could increase dollar volatility and prompt a reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy.
The situation in the Middle East remains another important factor. Tensions surrounding Iran continue to support demand for safe-haven assets and increase volatility in the oil market. Stronger demand for safe havens could also support the yen and partially limit the upside potential of USD/JPY.
For USD/CAD, the Bank of Canada's meeting will be the key event. The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, meaning that attention will focus primarily on the accompanying statement and press conference. A more dovish tone could increase pressure on the Canadian dollar and support further gains in the pair.
Oil will remain another important driver. EIA crude inventory data and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran could have a significant impact on oil prices and, consequently, on the Canadian dollar.
USD/JPY
Following last week's recovery, USD/JPY has once again tested the important 159.40–159.80 support area. Yesterday, buyers managed to establish the pair above the psychological 160.00 level.
If the US employment data comes in stronger than expected, the advance could continue towards 160.50–161.00. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a firm move below 159.40.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Applications;
▪️today at 15:15 (GMT+3): US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change;
▪️tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+3): Japan Services PMI.
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#EURUSD #GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
EUR/USD and GBP/USD at Key Support Levels Ahead of US Labour Market Data
The euro and pound continue to decline, approaching important support levels amid a stronger US dollar. Further moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, particularly developments in the US labour market.
Today, market attention will focus on economic data from Europe and the US. In the eurozone, services-sector business activity indices will be released, with weaker readings potentially keeping pressure on the euro. In the US, weekly labour-market data will be published, while additional attention will be paid to comments from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller. However, tomorrow’s employment report will be the key market reference point. Following the weak ADP reading, further signs of a cooling labour market could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy and put pressure on the dollar, while stronger figures could support further dollar gains.
For the pound, domestic data and signals from the Bank of England will provide an additional point of reference. Services-sector business activity figures will be in focus, along with a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, whose comments could influence expectations for the central bank’s future policy.
EUR/USD
As expected, EUR/USD has tested the important 1.1580–1.1620 support area. The decline has so far slowed near the upper boundary of the 1.1520–1.1560 range formed in August. Weak eurozone data could push EUR/USD further into this range. A return above 1.1620, followed by a sustained move above this level, would weaken the current bearish scenario and create conditions for a corrective recovery.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 10:15 (GMT+3): Spain Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);
▪️today at 10:55 (GMT+3): Germany Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD at Key Support Levels Ahead of US Labour Market Data
The euro and pound continue to decline, approaching important support levels amid a stronger US dollar. Further moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, particularly developments in the US labour market.
Today, market attention will focus on economic data from Europe and the US. In the eurozone, services-sector business activity indices will be released, with weaker readings potentially keeping pressure on the euro. In the US, weekly labour-market data will be published, while additional attention will be paid to comments from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller. However, tomorrow’s employment report will be the key market reference point. Following the weak ADP reading, further signs of a cooling labour market could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy and put pressure on the dollar, while stronger figures could support further dollar gains.
For the pound, domestic data and signals from the Bank of England will provide an additional point of reference. Services-sector business activity figures will be in focus, along with a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, whose comments could influence expectations for the central bank’s future policy.
EUR/USD
As expected, EUR/USD has tested the important 1.1580–1.1620 support area. The decline has so far slowed near the upper boundary of the 1.1520–1.1560 range formed in August. Weak eurozone data could push EUR/USD further into this range. A return above 1.1620, followed by a sustained move above this level, would weaken the current bearish scenario and create conditions for a corrective recovery.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 10:15 (GMT+3): Spain Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);
▪️today at 10:55 (GMT+3): Germany Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
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#EURUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
EUR/USD Analysis: Downtrend Breakout Still Lacks Confirmation
Today, 4 September, the market’s main focus is the August US employment report. According to CNBC, the consensus forecast calls for just 53,000 nonfarm jobs to be added following July’s decline, highlighting the continued weakness of the labour market. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting towards inflation risks. In the eurozone, a Reuters poll showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 10 September meeting, while around 91% expect the rate to remain at that level through the end of the year.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
On 21 August, a peak formed around 1.1700 on the four-hour chart, from which a trend and a descending trendline developed. The price repeatedly rejected this trendline to the downside, eventually reaching a low of 1.1570 on 2 September. The following day, the trendline was broken to the upside on increased volume, and the price is now attempting to establish itself above it, as well as above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 1.1610.
A red resistance area is located around 1.1660 above the established market density. In the event of a false breakout followed by a further decline, the asset could trade within the market density or continue lower. However, for this to happen, the price would need not only to test the upper boundary but also break through the Point of Control (POC) at 1.1600 and the lower boundary of the profile at 1.1580. Just below the lower boundary of the profile, there is also a green support area around 1.1570.
The RSI + MAs indicator is showing readings of 58, 45 and 45. The oscillator has moved above the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain red and close to its lower boundary, so they are not yet confirming the breakout.
Key Takeaways
The divergence between the RSI and its moving averages leaves the sustainability of the recovery uncertain, and the market may need more time for the other components of the breakout to develop. The August US employment report could provide an additional catalyst for the pair over the coming hours, with its significance for the Fed’s September decision having increased further against the backdrop of an expected ECB rate hike.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/USD Analysis: Downtrend Breakout Still Lacks Confirmation
Today, 4 September, the market’s main focus is the August US employment report. According to CNBC, the consensus forecast calls for just 53,000 nonfarm jobs to be added following July’s decline, highlighting the continued weakness of the labour market. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting towards inflation risks. In the eurozone, a Reuters poll showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 10 September meeting, while around 91% expect the rate to remain at that level through the end of the year.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
On 21 August, a peak formed around 1.1700 on the four-hour chart, from which a trend and a descending trendline developed. The price repeatedly rejected this trendline to the downside, eventually reaching a low of 1.1570 on 2 September. The following day, the trendline was broken to the upside on increased volume, and the price is now attempting to establish itself above it, as well as above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 1.1610.
A red resistance area is located around 1.1660 above the established market density. In the event of a false breakout followed by a further decline, the asset could trade within the market density or continue lower. However, for this to happen, the price would need not only to test the upper boundary but also break through the Point of Control (POC) at 1.1600 and the lower boundary of the profile at 1.1580. Just below the lower boundary of the profile, there is also a green support area around 1.1570.
The RSI + MAs indicator is showing readings of 58, 45 and 45. The oscillator has moved above the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain red and close to its lower boundary, so they are not yet confirming the breakout.
Key Takeaways
The divergence between the RSI and its moving averages leaves the sustainability of the recovery uncertain, and the market may need more time for the other components of the breakout to develop. The August US employment report could provide an additional catalyst for the pair over the coming hours, with its significance for the Fed’s September decision having increased further against the backdrop of an expected ECB rate hike.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDNZD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
AUD/NZD: Fresh Hikes on Both Sides, One Chart Still Undecided
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia's Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock's board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered exactly what all five major New Zealand bank economists expected on Wednesday: a 25bp hike to 2.75%, the second consecutive increase after July's tightening move. Headline inflation remains elevated at 4.1%, though the central bank's own projections signal a likely pause in October before potentially resuming in December, leaving markets pricing roughly a 30% chance of another hike this year.
The result: two central banks now both firmly in tightening mode, though the RBA's path still carries more near-term uncertainty than the RBNZ's, whose next move already looks broadly telegraphed through year-end.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As the AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair staged a sharp rally from the 1.19633 low, riding a steep ascending trendline that has powered the entire late-August advance. That rally has since run into resistance near the 1.22897 high, the 0 Fibonacci level, where price is now consolidating just above the 0.236 retracement near 1.22127, caught between a shorter-term descending trendline from this week's peak and the broader medium-term descending trendline that has capped the pair since late June.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 0.236 retracement and the ascending trendline while breaking above the short-term descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 1.22897 high. A confirmed break above that level would mark a genuine shift in the broader multi-month structure.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the 0.236 level and the steep ascending trendline would expose the intermediate 1.213–1.215 support zone, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A deeper slide below that zone would risk a fuller retracement of the late-August rally, back towards the 0.618–0.786 area near 1.203–1.209.
With price squeezed between a reclaimed short-term trendline, a defended ascending trendline, and the long-term descending trendline, AUD/NZD looks poised for a decisive move. Will the RBA's hawkish momentum push the pair through resistance, or will the broader downtrend since June reassert control?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/NZD: Fresh Hikes on Both Sides, One Chart Still Undecided
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia's Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock's board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered exactly what all five major New Zealand bank economists expected on Wednesday: a 25bp hike to 2.75%, the second consecutive increase after July's tightening move. Headline inflation remains elevated at 4.1%, though the central bank's own projections signal a likely pause in October before potentially resuming in December, leaving markets pricing roughly a 30% chance of another hike this year.
The result: two central banks now both firmly in tightening mode, though the RBA's path still carries more near-term uncertainty than the RBNZ's, whose next move already looks broadly telegraphed through year-end.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As the AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair staged a sharp rally from the 1.19633 low, riding a steep ascending trendline that has powered the entire late-August advance. That rally has since run into resistance near the 1.22897 high, the 0 Fibonacci level, where price is now consolidating just above the 0.236 retracement near 1.22127, caught between a shorter-term descending trendline from this week's peak and the broader medium-term descending trendline that has capped the pair since late June.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 0.236 retracement and the ascending trendline while breaking above the short-term descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 1.22897 high. A confirmed break above that level would mark a genuine shift in the broader multi-month structure.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the 0.236 level and the steep ascending trendline would expose the intermediate 1.213–1.215 support zone, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A deeper slide below that zone would risk a fuller retracement of the late-August rally, back towards the 0.618–0.786 area near 1.203–1.209.
With price squeezed between a reclaimed short-term trendline, a defended ascending trendline, and the long-term descending trendline, AUD/NZD looks poised for a decisive move. Will the RBA's hawkish momentum push the pair through resistance, or will the broader downtrend since June reassert control?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
AUD/CAD Analysis: Atypical Volume Casts Doubt on Triangle Breakout
The key catalyst for the Australian dollar remains the July inflation data released on 26 August. The figure came in at 3.5% year-on-year, versus expectations of 3.2%, while the Trimmed Mean increased by 0.5% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 0.3%. The following day, 27 August, NAB revised its forecast for the RBA’s next policy decision. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, taking the rate to 4.6%, with the risk of another increase in November.
For the Canadian dollar, the key factor was the Bank of Canada’s decision. On 2 September, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, highlighting economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory trade measures.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
The four-hour AUD/CAD chart shows a pronounced uptrend that has lifted the pair towards the current resistance level at 0.9985. A pattern resembling a converging triangle formed near the top of this advance, with price fluctuations gradually narrowing within the formation. However, volume dynamics during the second half of the pattern’s formation have been atypical, casting doubt on its reliability.
Nevertheless, the price has broken out of the pattern while also moving above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.9950, and is attempting to establish itself above this level. If the advance continues, the red resistance level around 0.9985 is the next key obstacle on the upside.
In the event of a false breakout, the price could return to the profile. If the scenario turns bearish, the pair would need to break not only the upper boundary of the profile but also the Point of Control (POC) at 0.9935 and the lower boundary at 0.9910. Below the market density, a green support level is located around 0.9895.
The RSI + MAs indicator is showing readings of 59, 52 and 54. The RSI has moved above the neutral zone, while both the fast and slow moving averages remain below its upper boundary.
Key Takeaways
The atypical volume dynamics during the formation of the triangle leave the reliability of the breakout uncertain, while the price’s attempt to establish itself above the market profile has yet to receive confirmation from the RSI + MAs indicator. The pair’s further direction could depend largely on whether the expected tightening of RBA policy materialises against the backdrop of the Bank of Canada’s wait-and-see stance.
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AUD/CAD Analysis: Atypical Volume Casts Doubt on Triangle Breakout
The key catalyst for the Australian dollar remains the July inflation data released on 26 August. The figure came in at 3.5% year-on-year, versus expectations of 3.2%, while the Trimmed Mean increased by 0.5% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 0.3%. The following day, 27 August, NAB revised its forecast for the RBA’s next policy decision. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, taking the rate to 4.6%, with the risk of another increase in November.
For the Canadian dollar, the key factor was the Bank of Canada’s decision. On 2 September, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, highlighting economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory trade measures.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
The four-hour AUD/CAD chart shows a pronounced uptrend that has lifted the pair towards the current resistance level at 0.9985. A pattern resembling a converging triangle formed near the top of this advance, with price fluctuations gradually narrowing within the formation. However, volume dynamics during the second half of the pattern’s formation have been atypical, casting doubt on its reliability.
Nevertheless, the price has broken out of the pattern while also moving above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.9950, and is attempting to establish itself above this level. If the advance continues, the red resistance level around 0.9985 is the next key obstacle on the upside.
In the event of a false breakout, the price could return to the profile. If the scenario turns bearish, the pair would need to break not only the upper boundary of the profile but also the Point of Control (POC) at 0.9935 and the lower boundary at 0.9910. Below the market density, a green support level is located around 0.9895.
The RSI + MAs indicator is showing readings of 59, 52 and 54. The RSI has moved above the neutral zone, while both the fast and slow moving averages remain below its upper boundary.
Key Takeaways
The atypical volume dynamics during the formation of the triangle leave the reliability of the breakout uncertain, while the price’s attempt to establish itself above the market profile has yet to receive confirmation from the RSI + MAs indicator. The pair’s further direction could depend largely on whether the expected tightening of RBA policy materialises against the backdrop of the Bank of Canada’s wait-and-see stance.
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USD/JPY: BoJ Momentum Meets a Fed Still Undecided
USD/JPY is caught in a genuine crossfire this week, and Thursday's move said it all: the yen surged nearly 2% in a single session, touching a one-month high near 155.28, as traders simultaneously priced in higher odds of a Bank of Japan hike and stayed alert to fresh intervention risk following July's joint US-Japan operation. BOJ board member Hajime Takata has even floated the possibility of outsized or back-to-back hikes to contain inflation, while Governor Ueda's comments this week reinforced expectations of a move as early as this month.
The dollar side offers no clean counter-narrative either. August's jobs report reshaped the Fed debate almost overnight, with payrolls coming in well above the 55,000 consensus, briefly reviving September hike bets that had cooled sharply after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with holding rates if inflation keeps easing. Markets are now split roughly 50–60% on a September move, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance, alongside the CPI and PPI prints later this week, as the real tie-breakers.
The result: a yen gaining genuine independent strength from hawkish BOJ signals, against a dollar whose own rate path remains stuck between conflicting data, leaving USD/JPY's next move hostage to whichever central bank commits first.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair has broken sharply below its long-term ascending trendline following Thursday's yen surge, with price now sitting right at the 155.00 support zone after decisively rejecting the confluence of the descending trendline, the 100 EMA and the resistance zone at the crucial 160.00 level.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 155.00–156.00 support and reclaim the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 100-period EMA near 159.50, with a stronger recovery potentially targeting the 160.00–161.00 resistance zone that has capped rallies since May.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a confirmed break below the 155.00–156.00 support would expose the pair to the next crucial level, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 152.00–153.00 zone, the low that anchored the entire 2026 uptrend.
With price having just lost its long-term ascending trendline and now testing critical support directly beneath the 100-period EMA, USD/JPY looks poised for a decisive move. Will the BoJ's hawkish momentum drag the pair into a genuine trend reversal, or will the dollar find its footing first?
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USD/JPY: BoJ Momentum Meets a Fed Still Undecided
USD/JPY is caught in a genuine crossfire this week, and Thursday's move said it all: the yen surged nearly 2% in a single session, touching a one-month high near 155.28, as traders simultaneously priced in higher odds of a Bank of Japan hike and stayed alert to fresh intervention risk following July's joint US-Japan operation. BOJ board member Hajime Takata has even floated the possibility of outsized or back-to-back hikes to contain inflation, while Governor Ueda's comments this week reinforced expectations of a move as early as this month.
The dollar side offers no clean counter-narrative either. August's jobs report reshaped the Fed debate almost overnight, with payrolls coming in well above the 55,000 consensus, briefly reviving September hike bets that had cooled sharply after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with holding rates if inflation keeps easing. Markets are now split roughly 50–60% on a September move, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance, alongside the CPI and PPI prints later this week, as the real tie-breakers.
The result: a yen gaining genuine independent strength from hawkish BOJ signals, against a dollar whose own rate path remains stuck between conflicting data, leaving USD/JPY's next move hostage to whichever central bank commits first.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair has broken sharply below its long-term ascending trendline following Thursday's yen surge, with price now sitting right at the 155.00 support zone after decisively rejecting the confluence of the descending trendline, the 100 EMA and the resistance zone at the crucial 160.00 level.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 155.00–156.00 support and reclaim the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 100-period EMA near 159.50, with a stronger recovery potentially targeting the 160.00–161.00 resistance zone that has capped rallies since May.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a confirmed break below the 155.00–156.00 support would expose the pair to the next crucial level, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 152.00–153.00 zone, the low that anchored the entire 2026 uptrend.
With price having just lost its long-term ascending trendline and now testing critical support directly beneath the 100-period EMA, USD/JPY looks poised for a decisive move. Will the BoJ's hawkish momentum drag the pair into a genuine trend reversal, or will the dollar find its footing first?
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EUR/AUD: A Quiet RSI Signal Challenges the Downtrend
The euro enters this week's ECB meeting (September 9–10) with genuine hawkish backing, having already been told by insiders that policymakers are prepared to raise rates again to counter the inflationary side-effects of the Middle East conflict, even as they signal little appetite for tightening beyond that. July's hold at 2.25% came with Lagarde explicitly warning that renewed hostilities and the resulting oil price rebound pose upside risks to the inflation outlook, keeping the door firmly open to a move back to 2.50% this week.
The Aussie, meanwhile, is riding one of its strongest stretches in months, hitting a fresh three-month high after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, reinforcing bets that the RBA could resume tightening this month. Markets now price a 50–58% chance of a September hike, with a November move seen as effectively locked in, while commodity strength and Australia's growing role in the AI infrastructure boom add further structural support to the currency.
The result: two hawkish central banks converging on rate decisions within days of each other, leaving EUR/AUD's next move to hinge on whether Frankfurt or Canberra delivers the more convincing signal.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As the EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair has been trading within a steep descending trendline since mid-August's highs near 1.6441, with price now testing the confluence of this trendline and the 0 Fibonacci level near 1.6086. Adding intrigue to the setup, the RSI is forming a bullish divergence, printing higher lows even as price carved a fresh low this week.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline, the divergence would gain real technical credibility, opening the path towards the 0.382 retracement near 1.6222, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 0.5 level around 1.6264.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a continued rejection at the trendline would keep sellers in control, invalidating the divergence and exposing fresh lows below the 1.6086 level, with the broader downtrend from August's highs remaining firmly intact.
With price testing a fresh low right at the trendline while the RSI quietly hints at fading downside momentum, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive reaction. Will the ECB's hawkish stance finally show up on the chart, or will the RBA's own tightening momentum keep this downtrend alive?
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/AUD: A Quiet RSI Signal Challenges the Downtrend
The euro enters this week's ECB meeting (September 9–10) with genuine hawkish backing, having already been told by insiders that policymakers are prepared to raise rates again to counter the inflationary side-effects of the Middle East conflict, even as they signal little appetite for tightening beyond that. July's hold at 2.25% came with Lagarde explicitly warning that renewed hostilities and the resulting oil price rebound pose upside risks to the inflation outlook, keeping the door firmly open to a move back to 2.50% this week.
The Aussie, meanwhile, is riding one of its strongest stretches in months, hitting a fresh three-month high after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, reinforcing bets that the RBA could resume tightening this month. Markets now price a 50–58% chance of a September hike, with a November move seen as effectively locked in, while commodity strength and Australia's growing role in the AI infrastructure boom add further structural support to the currency.
The result: two hawkish central banks converging on rate decisions within days of each other, leaving EUR/AUD's next move to hinge on whether Frankfurt or Canberra delivers the more convincing signal.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As the EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair has been trading within a steep descending trendline since mid-August's highs near 1.6441, with price now testing the confluence of this trendline and the 0 Fibonacci level near 1.6086. Adding intrigue to the setup, the RSI is forming a bullish divergence, printing higher lows even as price carved a fresh low this week.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline, the divergence would gain real technical credibility, opening the path towards the 0.382 retracement near 1.6222, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 0.5 level around 1.6264.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a continued rejection at the trendline would keep sellers in control, invalidating the divergence and exposing fresh lows below the 1.6086 level, with the broader downtrend from August's highs remaining firmly intact.
With price testing a fresh low right at the trendline while the RSI quietly hints at fading downside momentum, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive reaction. Will the ECB's hawkish stance finally show up on the chart, or will the RBA's own tightening momentum keep this downtrend alive?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to decline and has approached the August lows around 1.3730. In addition to the weaker US dollar, the Canadian dollar is being supported by oil prices, which remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.
A sustained move below 1.3730, followed by this level becoming resistance, could open the way for a further decline towards the 1.3520–1.3570 area.
Key events for USD/CAD and AUD/USD:
▪️today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index;
▪️today at 15:15 (GMT+3): weekly change in US employment according to ADP;
▪️today at 23:30 (GMT+3): weekly US crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).
Overall, following the strong NFP report, the dollar failed to hold its initial gains, allowing the commodity-linked currencies to return to important technical levels. AUD/USD is testing the area of recent highs, while USD/CAD is approaching its August lows. With a relatively quiet economic calendar, further moves will depend on how expectations for Fed policy are repriced and on positioning ahead of the next US inflation data.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to decline and has approached the August lows around 1.3730. In addition to the weaker US dollar, the Canadian dollar is being supported by oil prices, which remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.
A sustained move below 1.3730, followed by this level becoming resistance, could open the way for a further decline towards the 1.3520–1.3570 area.
Key events for USD/CAD and AUD/USD:
▪️today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index;
▪️today at 15:15 (GMT+3): weekly change in US employment according to ADP;
▪️today at 23:30 (GMT+3): weekly US crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).
Overall, following the strong NFP report, the dollar failed to hold its initial gains, allowing the commodity-linked currencies to return to important technical levels. AUD/USD is testing the area of recent highs, while USD/CAD is approaching its August lows. With a relatively quiet economic calendar, further moves will depend on how expectations for Fed policy are repriced and on positioning ahead of the next US inflation data.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Euro and Pound Await New Drivers: Inflation and UK GDP in Focus
The euro and pound are showing subdued moves against the US dollar and have shifted into consolidation following their recent price action. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of a key batch of macroeconomic data that could alter expectations for the future policy stance of the major central banks.
The next key market catalysts will be inflation data from Germany and the US. Today, Germany’s annual CPI is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%, which could reinforce expectations of further policy tightening by the ECB and provide support for the euro. However, tomorrow’s US inflation data will be the main event. Headline CPI is expected at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI is forecast at 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Following the strong employment report, higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and support the dollar, while signs of easing price pressures could limit its upside.
For the pound, tomorrow’s UK economic data will provide an additional catalyst. UK GDP for July is forecast to show no growth after expanding by 0.3% in the previous month, despite expectations of a recovery in manufacturing output. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a more dovish stance from the Bank of England and limit the recovery potential of GBP/USD.
EUR/USD
Over recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range of 1.1570–1.1650. A breakout and sustained move above 1.1650 could pave the way for a retest of the August high near 1.1710. A sustained move below 1.1570 could trigger further downside towards 1.1500.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
Euro and Pound Await New Drivers: Inflation and UK GDP in Focus
The euro and pound are showing subdued moves against the US dollar and have shifted into consolidation following their recent price action. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of a key batch of macroeconomic data that could alter expectations for the future policy stance of the major central banks.
The next key market catalysts will be inflation data from Germany and the US. Today, Germany’s annual CPI is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%, which could reinforce expectations of further policy tightening by the ECB and provide support for the euro. However, tomorrow’s US inflation data will be the main event. Headline CPI is expected at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI is forecast at 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Following the strong employment report, higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and support the dollar, while signs of easing price pressures could limit its upside.
For the pound, tomorrow’s UK economic data will provide an additional catalyst. UK GDP for July is forecast to show no growth after expanding by 0.3% in the previous month, despite expectations of a recovery in manufacturing output. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a more dovish stance from the Bank of England and limit the recovery potential of GBP/USD.
EUR/USD
Over recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range of 1.1570–1.1650. A breakout and sustained move above 1.1650 could pave the way for a retest of the August high near 1.1710. A sustained move below 1.1570 could trigger further downside towards 1.1500.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
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GBP/USD Analysis: Wedge Breakout Attempt Ahead of Fed and BoE Decisions
The foreign exchange market is heading into a busy week, with the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision on 17 September. This sequence of central bank meetings, rather than individual macroeconomic releases, is shaping the current fundamental backdrop for the pound. Ahead of the decisions from the two major central banks, market participants are likely to remain cautious as they assess the future direction of monetary policy in the US and UK.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the GBP/USD four-hour chart, a pronounced short-term downtrend developed between 21 August and 2 September, pushing the pair towards the green support level at 1.3475. From this low, the price began to recover, forming a rising wedge in which both boundaries slope upwards, although the lower boundary is rising at a faster pace. On 10 September, the price attempted to break below the wedge’s lower boundary, but the move has so far remained within the current market profile, with the price holding between its upper boundary at 1.3545 and the Point of Control (POC) at 1.3515.
If the breakout proves false and the price moves through the profile’s upper boundary, the red resistance level around 1.3570 could halt the advance. If the price does continue lower and breaks through both the POC and the profile’s lower boundary at 1.3500, market participants could turn their attention to the green support level at 1.3475. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 48, 46 and 47, with all three measures sitting in the middle of the neutral zone, making it too early to confirm the breakout.
Key Takeaways
The attempted wedge breakout has yet to develop beyond the profile, while neutral RSI + MAs readings provide no clear indication of the next direction. More pronounced price action in the pair is likely to emerge as the Bank of England’s rate decision approaches.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD Analysis: Wedge Breakout Attempt Ahead of Fed and BoE Decisions
The foreign exchange market is heading into a busy week, with the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision on 17 September. This sequence of central bank meetings, rather than individual macroeconomic releases, is shaping the current fundamental backdrop for the pound. Ahead of the decisions from the two major central banks, market participants are likely to remain cautious as they assess the future direction of monetary policy in the US and UK.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the GBP/USD four-hour chart, a pronounced short-term downtrend developed between 21 August and 2 September, pushing the pair towards the green support level at 1.3475. From this low, the price began to recover, forming a rising wedge in which both boundaries slope upwards, although the lower boundary is rising at a faster pace. On 10 September, the price attempted to break below the wedge’s lower boundary, but the move has so far remained within the current market profile, with the price holding between its upper boundary at 1.3545 and the Point of Control (POC) at 1.3515.
If the breakout proves false and the price moves through the profile’s upper boundary, the red resistance level around 1.3570 could halt the advance. If the price does continue lower and breaks through both the POC and the profile’s lower boundary at 1.3500, market participants could turn their attention to the green support level at 1.3475. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 48, 46 and 47, with all three measures sitting in the middle of the neutral zone, making it too early to confirm the breakout.
Key Takeaways
The attempted wedge breakout has yet to develop beyond the profile, while neutral RSI + MAs readings provide no clear indication of the next direction. More pronounced price action in the pair is likely to emerge as the Bank of England’s rate decision approaches.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Await Key Fed Decision
The US dollar is consolidating against the yen and Canadian dollar ahead of the key event of the week — the Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%. As this move is already largely priced in, attention will focus on the updated economic projections, dot plot and press conference. Investors will assess whether the September rate hike marks the beginning of a new phase of monetary tightening or whether the central bank will prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are supported by persistent inflationary pressures, recent employment data and rising oil prices. US retail sales data will provide an additional reference point ahead of the meeting. Strong figures could provide further support for the dollar, although the market reaction is likely to remain limited ahead of the Fed decision.
USD/JPY
The decline in USD/JPY over the past two weeks has slowed around the key support area of 152.90–153.20. At the start of the week, the price tested this area several times, while buyers managed to establish a foothold above the psychological 155.00 level yesterday. Hawkish Fed rhetoric could support a corrective rise in USD/JPY towards 156.20–157.00. More cautious signals regarding further policy tightening, by contrast, could put renewed pressure on the dollar and lead to another test of the 152.90–153.20 area.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales;
▪️today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
▪️today at 21:30 (GMT+3): Federal Open Market Committee press conference.
USD/JPY and USD/CAD Await Key Fed Decision
The US dollar is consolidating against the yen and Canadian dollar ahead of the key event of the week — the Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%. As this move is already largely priced in, attention will focus on the updated economic projections, dot plot and press conference. Investors will assess whether the September rate hike marks the beginning of a new phase of monetary tightening or whether the central bank will prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are supported by persistent inflationary pressures, recent employment data and rising oil prices. US retail sales data will provide an additional reference point ahead of the meeting. Strong figures could provide further support for the dollar, although the market reaction is likely to remain limited ahead of the Fed decision.
USD/JPY
The decline in USD/JPY over the past two weeks has slowed around the key support area of 152.90–153.20. At the start of the week, the price tested this area several times, while buyers managed to establish a foothold above the psychological 155.00 level yesterday. Hawkish Fed rhetoric could support a corrective rise in USD/JPY towards 156.20–157.00. More cautious signals regarding further policy tightening, by contrast, could put renewed pressure on the dollar and lead to another test of the 152.90–153.20 area.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales;
▪️today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
▪️today at 21:30 (GMT+3): Federal Open Market Committee press conference.
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USD/CAD
USD/CAD has recovered from its recent lows and is testing the 1.3895–1.3940 resistance area, despite support for the Canadian dollar from elevated oil prices. A firm move above 1.3940, followed by the level turning into support, could pave the way for a rise towards 1.4000–1.4030. A failed attempt to establish itself above the current resistance area, by contrast, could trigger a renewed decline towards the 1.3760 support level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian building permits;
▪️today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow indicator.
Overall, USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain in consolidation ahead of the key Fed decision. As a 25-basis-point rate hike is already largely priced in, the dollar’s subsequent reaction will depend primarily on the central bank’s projections and rhetoric. Signals pointing to further tightening could support gains in both pairs, while a more cautious Fed stance could put renewed pressure on the US currency.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD has recovered from its recent lows and is testing the 1.3895–1.3940 resistance area, despite support for the Canadian dollar from elevated oil prices. A firm move above 1.3940, followed by the level turning into support, could pave the way for a rise towards 1.4000–1.4030. A failed attempt to establish itself above the current resistance area, by contrast, could trigger a renewed decline towards the 1.3760 support level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian building permits;
▪️today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow indicator.
Overall, USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain in consolidation ahead of the key Fed decision. As a 25-basis-point rate hike is already largely priced in, the dollar’s subsequent reaction will depend primarily on the central bank’s projections and rhetoric. Signals pointing to further tightening could support gains in both pairs, while a more cautious Fed stance could put renewed pressure on the US currency.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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