Bitcoin gained confidence, looking at altcoins and stocks

The crypto market capitalisation recovered by another 1.6% in 24 hours to $3.92 trillion, adding for the second day in a row. This time, Bitcoin even slightly outperformed the market (+2.2%), but still lagged Solana (+5.1%). However, all the top coins have been overshadowed by Cronos over the last couple of days, which added 55% in 24 hours and 137% in 7 days.

Bitcoin is drawing its third rising daily candle, trading above $113K on Thursday morning. The growth of altcoins, coupled with the rise in stock indices, has created an environment of increased risk appetite, while BTC's decline to $110K has restored its attractiveness to buyers.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 234K

🕒 Exp: 231K

🎯 Fact.: 229K 📈

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⚠️ USA — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.0%

🕒 Exp: 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: 3.3% 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 The US stock market is showing mixed dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.31%, while AMD (AMD) shares are up +0.52%.

In the Financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.38%, while Blackstone (BX) shares are down -0.50%.

In the Healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares are unchanged at 0.00%, while Eli Lilly (LLY) shares are up +0.25%.

Selective dynamics and the lack of a unified trend in key sectors are creating uncertainty for the dollar, reducing capital inflows/outflows in the short term.

USDCAD Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025

- USDCAD broke daily up channel

- Likely to fall to support level 1.3715

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025

- EURUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1755

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NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025

- NZDUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5980

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Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025

- Nasdaq-100 reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 24000.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/29 (GMT)

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 10K Actual: -9K

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.3% Actual: 6.3%

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% | 2.1% Actual: 0.1% | 2.2%

12:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: 0.0% | 2.0% Actual: 0.1% | 2.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.3% | 2.9% Actual: 0.3% | 2.9%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.5% Actual: 0.5%

12:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -90.2B Actual: -103.6B

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.1% | 1.3% Actual: -0.1% | 0.9%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Exp: -0.6% Actual: -1.6%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 58.6 Actual: 58.2


[Updated in real time]

Slow cooling of the US labour market

Weekly unemployment claims statistics have improved, but there is still cause for concern. In the week ending August 23, the number of initial claims was 229,000, compared to 234,000 a week earlier. Nevertheless, there has been an increase from around 210,000 at the end of July to a low point below 205,000 at the beginning of the year.

There is also an upward trend in the number of repeat claims, which stood at 1,954,000 in the week ending August 16, showing an upward trend over the last three years from a low of 1,349,000. This is also higher than pre-pandemic levels: in 2019, the average was 1,685,000.

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While the dollar is confused, the S&P 500 faces NVIDIA’s rebalancing threat

The US dollar has been consolidating for more than two weeks. Pressure on the USD index is being exerted by the increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, from 69% to 85%, following Jerome Powell’s dovish rhetoric in Jackson Hole and the White House’s intention to pursue fiscal dominance. Instead of reducing the budget deficit by cutting government spending and raising taxes, a different approach is being taken.

Donald Trump and his team are pushing the Fed to cut rates. For the first time in the central bank’s 111-year history, the president has dismissed a member of the FOMC. The US administration is exploring the possibility of replacing the heads of the Federal Reserve Banks. The main task is to change the composition of the Committee and ensure aggressive monetary policy easing. When other central banks maintain rates, this should lead to a severe weakening of the US dollar.

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📽 Pro News Weekly: Dollar Under Pressure, Stocks Sell Facts, Gold Glitters & Bitcoin Trails Ether

Today, we break down the latest moves across global markets 🌍

💲 US Dollar – Fed rate cut odds climb as Trump shakes up the FOMC, but political risks in Europe limit EURUSD upside.

📊 Stocks – NVIDIA earnings spark “buy the rumour, sell the fact” while small-caps lead gains with the Russell 2000 up 6.4%.

🪙 Gold – Bullish momentum builds on stagflation fears, tariffs on India and central bank diversification.

🌐 Crypto – Bitcoin rebounds above $113K but loses momentum to Ether as ETFs see big capital flows.
We’ll also preview the upcoming US labour market report, European inflation data, and what they could mean for the Fed and ECB.

🔔Don’t forget to like share and subscribe for more weekly updates from FxPro! 🟥

Gold approached the upper limit of the 4-month trading range

Gold is trading above $3,400 again at the end of the week. The upper limit of the trading range, within which the price has been fluctuating since April, is close to $3,430. Jerome Powell's signals about a rate cut, unprecedented pressure from the White House on the Fed, and the continuing high level of geopolitical risks have brought the price back to this level. Washington's introduction of 50% tariffs against India risks further deepening the divide between the West and the East, as well as the associated processes of de-dollarisation and diversification of gold and foreign exchange reserves by central banks in favour of precious metals.

For the first time since 1996, central banks hold more gold (about 25%) than US government bonds (about 20%) in their gold and foreign exchange reserves. For comparison, between 2008 and 2015, this ratio fluctuated between 10% and 30%, respectively.

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⚠️ USA — Core PCE Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 2.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 2.9%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% | 2.9%

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⚠️ Canada — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1% | 1.2%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | 1.3%

🎯 Fact.: -0.1% 📉 | 0.9% 📉

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⚠️ Canada — Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.0%

🕒 Exp: -0.6%

🎯 Fact.: -1.6% 📉

Rolls-Royce Wave Analysis – 29 August 2025

- Rolls-Royce reversed from round support level 10.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 11.00

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NEO Wave Analysis – 29 August 2025

- NEO reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 6.00

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉 Following inflation data, negative dynamics are observed on the US stock market premarket.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.98%, and DELL (DELL) shares are down -6.84%.

In the financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.17%, while Goldman Sachs (GS) shares are down -0.64%.

In the Technology sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.16%, while Google (GOOGL) shares are down -0.78%.

The prevalence of declines among large-cap companies indicates a general deterioration in trader sentiment and could trigger capital outflows, putting pressure on the dollar.

Inflation in the US will not make the Fed’s rate cut in September comfortable

The latest report on personal consumption expenditure in the US once again highlighted accelerating inflation. However, it was in line with average forecasts and did not cause an immediate strong market reaction.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure price index, accelerated to an annual rate of 2.9% in July, gaining momentum from April's low of 2.6%. The data is well above the 2% target. Overall inflation is also accelerating, adding 2.6% y/y against 2.2% in April. This trend is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in September, but it raises questions about the advisability of another cut at the end of October or December. In other words, this is moderately positive news for the dollar. However, its impact needs to be confirmed by strong labour market data on 5 September.

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What is ahead: EU CPI, US NFP

The key event of the first week of September will be the August US labour market report. Disappointing statistics for May-July led to a dovish shift by the Fed. If the data continues to deteriorate, the Fed may cut rates more than once before the end of 2025.

Employment dynamics are influenced not only by Donald Trump's anti-immigration policy but also by Elon Musk's Department of Efficiency's mass layoffs of civil servants. Until recently, civil servants who were laid off were considered employed. Significant adjustments should be expected by autumn. Trading Economics expects non-farm employment to grow by 50,000. This will be another blow to the US dollar.

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