The euro ignores the positive but quickly plays off Germany’s slowdown

The US dollar is putting pressure on other currencies. Earlier, we noted how the CAD, NZD and JPY were ready to give up, having been at their lowest levels in recent months. However, the USD brazenly ignored the Fed's relative softness last week and is fully capitalising on Europe's weak indicators to increase growth.

On Tuesday, the euro struggled to gain on mostly optimistic PMIs and accelerated its decline on the release of slightly weaker-than-expected Ifo indices for Germany.

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TESLA Wave Analysis – 24 September 2025

- TESLA rising inside impulse wave iii

- Likely to reach resistance level 460.00

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Trip Wave Analysis – 24 September 2025

- Trip reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 16.80

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/09/25 (GMT)

07:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Policy Rate — Exp: 0.00% Actual: 0.00%

07:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

08:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Press Conference

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 233K Actual: 218K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1930K Actual: 1926K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 3.3% Actual: 3.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Exp: 2.5% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index — Exp: 2.0% Actual: 2.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders — Exp: -0.3% | -0.1% Actual: 2.9% | 0.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -95.7B Actual: -85.5B

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 3.96M Actual: 4.00M | -0.2%


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Policy Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.00%

🕒 Exp: 0.00%

🎯 Fact.: 0.00%

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⚠️ Switzerland — SNB Press Conference at 08:00 GMT

The crypto market is digging deeper

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen to a nearly three-week low of $3.83 trillion, falling deeper below its 50-day moving average. However, similar declines at the end of June and the end of August only encouraged buyers. On Thursday morning, Bitcoin wiped out the previous day's gains, while major altcoins, Ethereum, and Solana, have been declining for the fifth trading session in a row.

The sentiment index at 44 barely touches the fear zone, preventing us from talking about a full-fledged reversal in sentiment. Nevertheless, we are once again turning our attention to crypto as an early indicator of risk appetite. Altcoins, as well as small currencies of developed countries, have been losing ground since the Fed cut rates a week ago, and key US indices have joined them since Tuesday.

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The Swiss National Bank did not dare to openly break the CHF growth trend

The Swiss National Bank kept its key rate at 0.0% after lowering it to this level in June. At the same time, the Bank noted it remains “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”.

Switzerland pointed to inflation close to previous forecasts and within the range of price stability, with forecasts of +0.2% in 2025, +0.5% in 2026, and +0.7% in 2027, provided that the key rate remains at the current level of 0.0%.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 232K

🕒 Exp: 233K

🎯 Fact.: 218K 📈

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⚠️ USA — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.3%

🕒 Exp: 3.3%

🎯 Fact.: 3.8% 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉The American stocks are showing pronounced negative dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -1.12%, and AMD (AMD) shares are losing -1.80%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -0.09%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -0.51%.

In the Technology sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.48%, while Oracle (ORCL) shares are losing -3.46%.

Widespread sell-offs among large-cap companies signal a strong capital outflow, which is putting pressure on the dollar and could lead to its weakening in global markets.

Solana Wave Analysis – 25 September 2025

- Solana broke support area

- Likely to fall to support level 187.20

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Ethereum Wave Analysis – 25 September 2025

- Ethereum broke support area

- Likely to fall to support level 3714.00

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Nike Wave Analysis – 25 September 2025

- Nike recently broke support area

- Likely to fall to support level 64.00

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IBM Wave Analysis – 25 September 2025

- IBM broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 286.75

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/09/26 (GMT)

09:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 2.9% Actual: 0.2% | 2.9%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.5% Actual: 0.6%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.1% | 0.7% Actual: 0.2% | 0.9%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 55.4 Actual: 55.1


[Updated in real time]

The dollar starts recovering while stocks – cooling

The US dollar has recovered thanks to the Fed chair's reluctance to signal a rate cut in October, a correction in stock indices, and rising geopolitical risks. Each of the USD's main competitors has its own Achilles heel. The euro is disappointed by Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus measures. The leadership battle in the Liberal Democratic Party weighs down the yen. The pound is concerned about the Treasury's ability to plug a £35 billion hole in the budget.

Scott Bessent expressed surprise that Jerome Powell did not signal further rate cuts in October. According to the Treasury Secretary, the federal funds rate should fall by 100-150 basis points before the end of 2025. However, many FOMC members are concerned about the possibility of accelerating inflation. The split within the Fed is playing into the hands of the US currency.

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The Fed’s easing gives gold a chance to repeat its best growth

Gold is trading near record highs, while price pullbacks are attracting new buyers. Two key drivers behind the gold rally are a change in the Fed's outlook and geopolitics. Jerome Powell emphasises that, given the bilateral risks, the central bank cannot take a risk-free path. Choosing between supporting full employment and inflation control, the Fed now turns its attention to the former.

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation. However, the Fed is the main defender against price acceleration and rising rates. In such conditions, gold often falls. However, when the central bank washes its hands of the matter, gold spreads its wings. This was the case in 1979, when it jumped 140% due to lower rates against a background of high inflation. About the same thing is happening now.

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