The dollar gains from its peers’ problems

The dollar is gaining, rebounding from its low point set at the last Fed meeting on 17 September. It is quite common for the dollar to rise, being the lesser evil for investors, rather than due to its own strength. The DXY gained 3% to 98.55 from its low of 95.83, set moments after the Fed cut rates and signalled further policy easing. The bearish event itself was a turning point, as we saw a whole series of factors undermining the value of other currencies to a greater extent.

The latest news was a rather unexpected quarter-point cut in the RBNZ's key rate, which took about 1% off the NZDUSD immediately after the decision was announced. Although the pair has now recovered about half of its initial losses, it has reached its six-month low, falling to 0.5730. A ‘death cross’ is forming in the pair, a bearish technical analysis signal, when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. This signal is reinforced by the fact that both curves are above the price. Such a signal is often followed by more intense selling. However, even without such a signal, the pair has been moving in a downward channel since the beginning of July, touching its lower boundary two weeks ago and today.

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/10/09 (GMT)

00:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Expectations Actual: 4.8%

11:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

21:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ Manufacturing Index

22:00 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Another three-week pullback for Bitcoin after reaching new highs?

The crypto market cap has fallen by 0.5% over the past 24 hours to $4.14 trillion. This is a pullback to levels that acted as resistance in August and September. Altcoins are having a tough time, as pressure on them has intensified against the background of Bitcoin's slump. Once again, we are reminded that cryptocurrencies can be the first to react to fluctuations in risk appetite, and the current sluggishness may be the first sign that players have had their fill of risk.

Bitcoin is trading near $121.5K, retreating from Monday's peak of $126.1K. After peaking in July, the price fell 9% over the next three weeks before turning upwards. In August, the decline took almost the same amount of time but took away about 14.5%. A repeat of this pattern suggests a pullback to the $107–115K range by the end of the month. However, even attempts to move below the upper limit of this range will cause quite a lot of concern in the markets, with a crucial date on the horizon – the Fed's decision on the key rate on 29 October.

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⚠️ USA — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks at 12:30 GMT

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈📉 The US stock market is showing mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +1.90%, while AVGO (AVGO) shares are down -0.36%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.02%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are unchanged at 0.00%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down -1.30%, while in the Transportation sector, UBER (UBER) shares are up +0.46%.

Mixed results from large companies are causing uncertainty among investors, which could lead to volatility in the dollar and a lack of a clear trend in the short term.

Oil Holds Strong Despite Bearish Fundamentals

Weekly data from the EIA noted that the US returned to record oil production rates last week, supplying an average of 13.6 million barrels per day to the market, according to the latest EIA data. The trend towards increased supply began in August, but producers have only now returned to the peak levels recorded at the end of last year.

Despite a 5.5-million-barrel increase in US commercial inventories over the past two weeks, inventories stay at the lower end of the range seen over the past decade, leaving considerable room for growth. The same can be said for the strategic reserve, which holds nearly 40% less oil than it did five years ago, before the start of the active sell-off.

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Ethereum Wave Analysis – 8 October 2025

- Ethereum reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 4000.00

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Trump Coin Wave Analysis – 8 October 2025

Trump Coin: ⬇️ Sell

Trump Coin reversed from resistance zone

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ZCASH Wave Analysis – 9 October 2025

- ZCASH broke key resistance level 174.20

- Likely to rise to resistance levels 200.00 and 220.00

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Home Depot Wave Analysis – 9 October 2025

Home Depot: ⬇️ Sell

- Home Depot broke support zone

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/10/10 (GMT)

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 2.8K Actual: 60.4K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 7.2% Actual: 7.1%

12:30 🇨🇦 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 106.1K | -45.6K

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 54.1 Actual: 55.0

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ UoM Inflation Expectations Actual: 4.6% | 3.7%


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ Australia — RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks at 22:00 GMT

USD gains on its peers’ weakness; S&P500 quietly growing

The US dollar continued its advance thanks to the weakness of its competitors. The political crisis in France has heightened the risks of early parliamentary elections and the potential resignation of Emmanuel Macron as president, thereby putting pressure on the euro. The new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and soon-to-be Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, supports fiscal stimulus and opposes interest rate hikes. Doubts about the central bank's independence have weakened the yen.

Dollar fans are not put off by the almost 80% chance of a cut in the federal funds rate from 4.25% now to 3.75% by the end of this year. The worsening political crisis in France could slow down the eurozone and force the ECB to resume its monetary easing. Keeping the Bank of Japan's rate low will give the green light to carry trade, pushing USDJPY higher.

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▶️ Pro News Weekly: Dollar Strength, Gold Surge & Bitcoin Records!

💵 USD gains as the euro and yen weaken amid political turmoil in France and Japan, while rate cut expectations grow in the US.

📈 Stocks keep rallying — the S&P 500 hits its 33rd record high this year as investors stay optimistic ahead of earnings season.

💰 Gold shines above $4,000/oz, fuelled by safe-haven demand and shifting global portfolios.

🪙 Bitcoin hits a new record high above $125K as investors seek alternatives to traditional finance.

The key question now: how long will the US shutdown last, and what comes next for global markets? 👀

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⚠️ Canada — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -65.5K

🕒 Exp: 2.8K

🎯 Fact.: 60.4K 📈

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⚠️ Canada — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 7.1%

🕒 Exp: 7.2%

🎯 Fact.: 7.1% 📈

Gold hits new highs due to political turmoil

Gold is outside the realm of politics. While currencies and securities depend on the actions of presidents and governments, precious metals do not. Therefore, political turmoil forces investors to use them as safe-haven assets. The impressive 52% rally in gold started in April with the introduction of tariffs on America's Liberation Day. It continued due to the US government shutdown, the political crisis in France, and the change of leadership in Japan.

The rise of gold above 4,000 dollars per ounce is not only the result of the weakness of fiat currencies. There are tectonic shifts in the structure of investment portfolios and fears of financial crises due to government recklessness. The share of precious metals is growing both in speculators' assets and in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks. The indicator has already exceeded the share of the euro. According to Eurizon Capital, if it equals the share of the US dollar, the price per ounce will soar to 8,500 dollars.

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What next: political deadlocks in France, Japan, and the US

The main question for the coming week is when the shutdown will end. The White House is nervous. Donald Trump first announces negotiations with Democrats on healthcare issues, then he says that this is only possible after the government resumes work. On Polymarket, participants are betting that the shutdown will last until the end of the month. Republicans are asking the president not to carry out mass layoffs of civil servants. This would lower his political ratings and undermine confidence.

The government shutdown casts doubt on the release of important reports on the US labour market and inflation. Investors are trying to focus on alternative data, while the Fed is moving in the dark. Some media reports, the BLS will bring in staff so that the Fed will have employment and inflation data for its next meeting on October 26.

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