Gold Faces Key Test at $5,100

Gold has been hovering around $5,000 per ounce for the past two weeks. A weak start to the week, with a drop to $4,850, was followed by a gradual rise to $5,030.

The precious metal proved resilient to the hawkish FOMC minutes, the strengthening of the dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields (its main competitor). Geopolitical factors appear to be supporting demand, as some investors view gold as a hedge against market volatility. In addition, there are still concerns that with the change of the Fed chair in May, the FOMC will move to a sharp easing of policy. In the short term, this rather bullish external backdrop falls on fertile ground, as the price is about 13% below its peak.

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Crypto bears have confirmed their control

The crypto market cap has lost about 3.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.25 trillion. At its lowest point at the start of the day, the price fell to $2.22 trillion, which is not far from the lows of February 5–6. It seems that bears have gathered enough strength to try to complete the consolidation of the last couple of weeks during the hours of lowest liquidity. Among the top coins, Solana and Bitcoin Cash are taking the biggest hit, losing over 7%, while Tron is doing better than most, losing only 0.3%.

The sentiment index fell to 5, repeating the lows of February 12 and dropping this low for only the third time in history. According to the indicator, such a decline is a good point for long-term purchases. However, the last time there was a relatively long dip into single digits was in June 2022, and steady growth only began at the start of 2023. So, the lows of the sentiment index do not necessarily coincide with the lows of the crypto market prices.

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The dollar fell due to tariffs

The recognition of tariffs as illegal led to a sell-off of greenbacks.

Gold is rising thanks to the return of the ‘debasement trade’.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

📉 The US stock market pre-market is showing mostly negative dynamics: most major companies are trading in the red, indicating risk aversion.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up +0.55%, while Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.40%.

In the Financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -0.61%, and Mastercard (MA) shares are down -0.71%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down -0.99%, while in the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are down -0.82%.

This premarket configuration reflects a risk-off mode: pressure on risky assets and weakness in the broader stock market are stimulating demand for defensive dollar instruments and US Treasury bonds, which is providing short-term support for the dollar with no clear signs of weakening.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/02/24 (GMT)

14:00 🇺🇸 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City — Exp: 1.3% Actual: 1.4%

14:15 🇬🇧 Monetary Policy Report Hearings

15:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 87.4 Actual: 91.2

17:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Silver Wave Analysis – 23 February 2026

- Silver broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 92.50

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Gold Wave Analysis – 23 February 2026

Gold broke resistance zone

Likely to rise to resistance level 5420.00

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Crypto: Capitulation or double bottom?

The crypto market cap continues to decline, losing nearly 5.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.19 trillion, practically repeating the extremes of early February. The last time the market was consistently lower was in September 2024. If there is a rebound by the end of the day, we can talk about the formation of a double bottom, which will give hope for a rebound of about 10%. However, a failure to rebound will signal the end of the recovery, opening the potential for a further 25% decline to the 2023 consolidation range.

Bitcoin fell below $63K at the start of the day, going below the previous day's lows after the recovery rebound stalled. BTCUSD slipped below $60K in early February, but there was a steady tug-of-war near current levels, drawing attention to the outcome of the local battle between bulls and bears. The outcome will determine whether we see a recovery rebound or a new downward momentum. In our view, the market has not yet bottomed out in the bear market, and the real capitulation is still ahead.

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EURUSD rode a roller coaster

The market is assessing the impact of tariffs.

Gold risks entering a consolidation.

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Bitcoin fell < $63,000
losing 8%+ in 3 days 📉

🇺🇸 US premarket: mixed dynamics 📈 📉

Moderate growth prevails among the largest technology and energy companies, while some highly capitalized healthcare issuers and individual blue chips are showing declines.

In the electronics sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.38%, while Micron Technology (MU) shares are up +1.91%.

In the Financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -0.24%, while Morgan Stanley (MS) shares are down -0.14%.

In the retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up +0.21%, while Home Depot (HD) is up +2.77%.

The mixed picture for major US stocks does not indicate a clear risk-on or risk-off mode. Demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset remains subdued, and in the near term, its dynamics are likely to be predominantly range-bound, determined by expectations for Fed monetary policy and external news rather than internal flows from the US stock market.

⚠️ USA — CB Consumer Confidence at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 89.0

🕒 Exp: 87.4

🎯 Fact.: 91.2 📈

▶️ Pro News Flash: Bitcoin Bleeds as Confidence Cracks

🟢 Bitcoin is sliding fast and ignoring good news while reacting aggressively to bad headlines. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is heading for its worst month since June 2022, when the collapse of Terraform Labs and its TerraUSD stablecoin triggered chaos across the market.

📉 From record highs in October, Bitcoin has now lost roughly half its value. The recent drop was accelerated after the US Supreme Court declared Donald Trump’s tariffs illegal, strengthening the dollar and dragging US equities lower, which pushed Bitcoin back toward its February lows.

💸 Capital is leaving the space. Bitcoin focused ETFs have seen $3.8 billion in outflows over five consecutive weeks, marking the longest losing streak since early last year.

🥇 Some investors are questioning Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge. As gold regains attention and stablecoins gain legislative support in payment systems, Bitcoin appears to be fading from the spotlight.

🏛️ Political backing is also under scrutiny. While support from Donald Trump and institutional players was once seen as bullish, it now raises concerns about decentralisation. If Bitcoin depends on political narratives, can it truly hedge political risk?

📊 Institutional dynamics are shifting. Hedge funds reduced their ETF participation from 31% in Q4 2024 to 24% a year later, and declining volatility has driven speculators away.

📍 With confidence fading and portfolio allocations shrinking, Bitcoin risks a move toward $50,000, with downside pressure still building.

📅 The key question now: Is this just another shakeout, or is Bitcoin entering a deeper structural reset?

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