Lower global trade uncertainty supports risk appetite

The US has signed agreements with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Tariffs range from 15% to 19%. Tokyo has secured a reduction in import duties on cars from Washington from 25% to 15%. Looking at this deal, the European Union also wants to get 15% tariffs. Brussels does not intend to activate the anti-coercion mechanism and respond with reciprocal duties of €100 billion.

The reduced risk of a large-scale trade war between the US and the EU is increasing global risk appetite and putting pressure on the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the reduction in trade uncertainty is giving the Fed a free hand to ease monetary policy. A sharp cut in the federal funds rate may happen sooner than expected, contributing to the dollar's decline.

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Retreating from the ceiling again, Gold risks correction

Concerns about the trade war between the US and the European Union and the retreat of platinum group metals allowed gold to break above the upper limit of the medium-term consolidation range of $3250-3400 per ounce. However, the White House's trade agreement with Japan and the reduction of import duties on Japanese goods brought gold back to the centre of the latest consolidation range.

Platinum and palladium, which showed impressive results in 2025, were the main beneficiaries of rumours that gold was overbought. Investors diversified their portfolios in favour of less expensive metals. However, due to the high share of demand from the automotive industry, platinum group metals are highly sensitive to tariffs. A reduction in import duties could restore the upward trends and put pressure on gold against the background of renewed capital outflows.

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Important events for the week ahead: rate decisions and NFP

Clarification of the tariff situation allows markets to restore old ties and turn their attention to economic events. Yes, investors remain concerned about the potential US–EU trade agreement ahead of the August 1st deadline and ongoing negotiations between Washington and Beijing. However, the focus will shift to the packed economic calendar, which will take centre stage.

The releases of US GDP data for the second quarter and labour market data for July will be the highlights of the week, as will the FOMC meeting. Bloomberg experts do not expect a cut in the federal funds rate, but there may be two dissenters in the Fed. Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have made it clear that they are not opposed to an immediate rate cut.

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News Weekly Video: Dollar Drops, Stocks Soar, Bitcoin Stalls

📉 The dollar dives, stocks soar, and crypto takes a breather — it’s all happening in this week’s Pro News Weekly!

Why the US dollar is losing ground after new trade deals

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Dogecoin Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025

- Dogecoin reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 0.2000

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Toncoin Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025

- Toncoin reversed from resistance level 3.5585

- Likely to fall to support level 3.0000

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USDCAD Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025

- USDCAD rising inside sideways price range inside

- Likely to reach resistance level 1.3800

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S&P 500 Index Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025

- S&P 500 Index broke key resistance level 6300.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 6500.00

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The crypto market digested the sell-off and moved further up

The crypto market capitalisation returned to its historical highs of $4 trillion (+2.4% in 24 hours), as the pull towards altcoins returned after a slight reboot last week.

Bitcoin, which fell alarmingly on Friday morning, still managed to remain within the range of the last couple of weeks — $116.5- $119.5k. The new week begins with an assault on the upper limit of the range. Breaking through $120K could create a speculative wave of buying.

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The Dow Jones Index has reached its top levels, but don’t rush to short it

Dow Jones index futures opened the week with a 0.5% jump, exceeding 45,000. This is the area of highs from which the index reversed downward in December and January. The test of historical highs occurred about a month later than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, underscoring the continued advantage of high-tech companies, which make up a large share of these indices.

Since the beginning of July, the Greed and Fear Index has been hovering around the threshold of extreme greed, periodically entering this territory. On Monday morning, this indicator stood at 74. Of the seven components of the indicator, the VIX volatility index is in neutral territory, and the ratio of put and call options is in “greed” territory, while the other five are in extreme greed territory.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈The US stock market is showing positive dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up 0.69%, and AVGO (AVGO) shares are up 0.71%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are adding 0.29%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are up 0.10%.

In the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up 0.85%, while Walmart (WMT) shares are virtually unchanged.

The significant predominance of growth among the largest companies supports investor optimism, which may contribute to the inflow of capital into US assets and support the dollar against the background of subdued market volatility.

The dollar begins a new chapter of growth

The US dollar is up 0.75% against the euro and 0.5% against a trade-weighted basket of developed country currencies. The euro took a hit after the trade agreement between the EU and the US. The agreement shifts the balance of cash flow towards the US, which benefits both the dollar and the stock markets. At the same time, there has been a noticeable sigh of relief driven by growing confidence in the future, albeit tempered by the unpredictability of the US president.

The agreement with the EU is an important milestone in a series of trade deals. Perhaps the only thing left is to polish up the agreement with China. This means that markets are now able to switch to trading based on expectations of trade flows, rather than simply operating in risk-on/risk-off mode.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/29 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -98.3B Actual: -86.0B

13:00 🇺🇸 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City — Exp: 2.9% Actual: 2.8%

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ JOLTs Job Openings — Exp: 7510K Actual: 7440K

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ CB Consumer Confidence — Exp: 95.9 Actual: 97.2


[Updated in real time]

Boeing Wave Analysis – 28 July 2025

- Boeing broke the resistance level 232.50

- Likely to rise to resistance level 240.00

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 28 July 2025

- EURUSD reversed from the resistance level 1.1775

- Likely to fall to support levels 1.1555 and 1.1460

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AMD Wave Analysis – 28 July 2025

- AMD broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 185.95

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 28 July 2025

- GBPUSD broke support zone

- Likely fall to support level 1.3175

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Ethereum continues attempt to climb above $4,000

The crypto market lost 1%, falling back to a capitalisation of $3.9 trillion. This was a natural pullback against the backdrop of the dollar's impressive strengthening the day before. However, on Tuesday, the bulls were back in charge, bringing the market back to a level above Monday's opening but not yet reaching its peak.

Bitcoin is trading near $118.7K, unable to break through the resistance at $120K. This indecision to break out of the range is likely to continue until the market sees the Fed's key rate decision on Wednesday evening.

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