Silver Wave Analysis – 4 August 2025

- Silver reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 39.45

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GBPCHF Wave Analysis – 4 August 2025

- GBPCHF reversed from key support level 1.0665

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 1.0800

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Three blows to oil in three days

Oil has been under triple pressure since the end of last week, losing more than 7% per barrel of WTI since 31 July, reaching the important psychological level of $65. The latest wave of oil sell-offs began with the realisation that US trade tariffs from August will be higher than initially expected, as higher tariffs are associated with an economic slowdown and weaker demand for energy. Fears of an economic slowdown intensified after the release of unexpectedly weak US employment data on Friday. Over the weekend, concerns were heightened by OPEC+'s increase in production quotas, which was reflected in the markets on Monday.

After its latest meeting, OPEC+ announced that it would increase production quotas for eight countries by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. Considering the quota increases since April, the entire voluntarily reduced volume of 2.2 million barrels per day will return to the market. This is a rather bold decision, given the growing fear that the global economy is slowing down.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/05 (GMT)

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 52.6

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI Actual: 50.8

07:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 49.7 Actual: 48.5

07:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 49.6 Actual: 48.6

07:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 50.1 Actual: 50.6

07:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.3 Actual: 50.6

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 51.0

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 50.9

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 51.8

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 51.5

12:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance — Exp: -62.6B Actual: -60.2B

12:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance — Exp: -5.8B Actual: -5.9B

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 55.2 Actual: 55.7

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 54.6 Actual: 55.1

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 51.5 Actual: 50.1

22:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: -0.1%

22:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 5.3%


[Updated in real time]

GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 4 August 2025

- GBPJPY reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 194.00

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Ethereum Wave Analysis – 4 August 2025

- Ethereum reversed from the key support level 3400.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3800.00

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Major Events Ahead: Europe PMIs, BoE Rate and Canada Employment

Data on the US and Chinese trade balances will show how effective Donald Trump's restructuring of the international trade system has been. Final figures on European business activity and statistics from American purchasing managers will demonstrate the resilience of economies to tariffs.

Particular attention will be paid to the Bank of England meeting. Will it want to lower the repo rate or extend the pause in the monetary expansion cycle? The British economy is not yet falling off a cliff, and inflation is high. Perhaps Andrew Bailey and his colleagues will not rush into anything.

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Resilient dollar despite weak jobs data

The US employment report published on Friday confirmed its status as the economic report with pivotal status. The dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics is a high-profile political precedent, but we are interested in the consequences for the markets.

Employment growth of 73K was reported, significantly lower than the expected 106K. But the main shock was the revision for May from 144K to 19K and for June from 147K to 14K. Businesses barely created any new jobs in the first months after the tariffs were introduced, in contrast to ‘business as usual’ before the publication.

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S&P500’s buy-the-dip sentiment helped Bitcoin

The sell-off of Bitcoin following Congress's passage of a law regulating the circulation of stablecoins and the retreat of US stock indices from record highs allowed Bitcoin bears to push prices below the lower boundary of the $116k—$120k consolidation range. When it looked like a severe correction was coming, US stocks stepped in again. Investors bought up the S&P 500 dip, and Bitcoin immediately bounced back.

Changes in global risk appetite continue to be the main driver of cryptocurrency prices. July saw a series of record highs for the S&P 500, making it a successful month for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin-focused ETFs attracted $6 billion, the third-best result in the history of specialised exchange-traded funds. Ether ETFs were not far behind, with a record inflow of $5.4 billion.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 The US stocks show positive dynamics in pre-market.

In the Electronic Technology sector, AMD (AMD) shares are up +1.09%, while AVGO (AVGO) shares are up +0.56%.

In the Financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +0.08%, while Visa (V) shares are up +0.15%.

In the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up +0.70%, while Walmart (WMT) shares are up +0.18%.

The pronounced prevailing growth among large-cap companies creates favourable conditions for the strengthening of the dollar due to sustained investment demand and capital inflows into the stock market.

⚠️ USA — ISM Services PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 50.8

🕒 Exp: 51.5

🎯 Fact.: 50.1 📉

Business activity in the eurozone is growing, but very slowly

Business activity in the eurozone is returning to growth thanks to a turnaround in manufacturing since the end of last year and a slight acceleration in the pace of growth in services, according to data published by S&P Global.

The final composite PMI data for July showed an increase to 50.9, rising for the third consecutive month and repeating March's figures. Overall, the indicator has returned to levels close to those seen in 2019, indicating fairly sluggish economic growth.

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Pro News Video: Bitcoin Recovers After Sell-Off. What’s Next for Crypto & ETFs?

In this episode of Pro News Flash, we break down Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off, its rapid recovery, and what could come next for the crypto market.

🪙After U.S. Congress passed new stablecoin regulations and U.S. stock indices retreated from record highs, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the 116,000–120,000 support range. But just as a deep correction loomed, the S&P 500 bounce helped Bitcoin rebound.

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Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis – 5 August 2025

Brent Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

- Brent Crude Oil broke support zone

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Boeing Wave Analysis – 5 August 2025

- Boeing reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 230.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/06 (GMT)

08:30 🇬🇧 Construction PMI — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 44.3

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 200K Actual: -3029K


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ New Zealand — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.0% | -0.7%

🕒 Exp: -0.1% | -0.9%

🎯 Fact.: -0.1% | -0.9%

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⚠️ New Zealand — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 5.1%

🕒 Exp: 5.3%

🎯 Fact.: 5.2% 📈

Summer Break for the Crypto Market

The cryptocurrency market began August with a relatively narrow range of $3.6-3.8 trillion, ending Wednesday at $3.72 trillion. The support received in the area of previous peaks set in December and January suggests that this is a temporary pause to lock in profits and gain liquidity before a new surge. At the same time, however, such sluggishness is turning away the most active traders, who are used to seeing multiple rallies. Now they have moved on to very small projects.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin was again approaching its 50-day moving average. Such frequent testing of the medium-term trend signal line indicates accumulated fatigue in the first cryptocurrency. For comparison, the crypto market's total capitalisation is still moving significantly above its 50-day average, which is currently around $3.57 trillion.

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