China is still exporting deflation

China remains a net exporter of deflation, with producer prices falling for the last 34 consecutive months. Subdued economic growth results in this, which leaves room for further stimulus measures, potentially positive for the stock market but negative for the yuan exchange rate.

Consumer inflation was 0.0% y/y in July and has remained virtually unchanged over the past two years. When prices do not rise, people have no incentive to spend money “today”, suppressing GDP, so governments mandate central banks to target positive inflation.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 The US stock market is showing mixed dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the consumer sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up 1.97%, while General Motors (GM) shares are up 0.32%.

In the electronics sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down 0.39%, and Apple (AAPL) shares are down 0.60%.

In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up 0.27%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are up 0.41%.

The predominance of growth among individual leaders and the weak dynamics of IT giants form a neutral-positive external background, which supports the dollar by attracting targeted investment flows into the US economy.

Oil in a bear hug, despite the rebound

Oil rose about 1.3% on Monday to $63.5 per barrel of WTI after falling 11% over the previous seven trading days. The decline was the market's reaction to weak US labour market data, which forced a downward revision of demand forecasts, and the almost simultaneous increase in OPEC+ quotas, with demand revised upward.

It is easy to see that the oil market is focused on the negative side of the news, preferring to see an increase in the oil surplus rather than hoping for an early rate cut, as the stock market does.

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US CPI release: a bullish chance for the dollar

On Tuesday, US consumer inflation data for July will be released, which will largely determine the fate of the key rate cut in September.

The overall consumer price index in the US accelerated its annual growth from 2.3% to 2.7% in June, and analysts expect it to accelerate to 2.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, it is anticipated to accelerate to 3.0% y/y. In both cases, this will be the highest rate since February.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/12 (GMT)

04:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 3.60% Actual: 3.60%

04:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Rate Statement

04:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Monetary Policy Statement

05:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Media Conference

06:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 20.8K Actual: -6.2K

06:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.7% Actual: 4.7%

06:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 4.7% | 5.0% Actual: 4.6% | 5.0%

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 40.2 Actual: 34.7

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Survey (Current Situation) — Exp: -65.0 Actual: -68.6

09:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 28.1 Actual: 25.1

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 2.8% Actual: 0.2% | 2.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core CPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.0% Actual: 0.3% | 3.1%


[Updated in real time]

IBM Wave Analysis – 11 August 2025

- IBM reversed from resistance level 253.60

- Likely to fall to support level 230.00

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Johnson & Johnson Wave Analysis – 11 August 2025

Johnson & Johnson: ⬆️ Buy

- Johnson & Johnson broke the resistance level 168.15

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Apple Wave Analysis – 11 August 2025

- Apple broke resistance level 225.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 237.70

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 11 August 2025

- EURGBP reversed from a strong resistance level 0.8735

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8600

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⚠️ Australia — RBA Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.85%

🕒 Exp: 3.60%

🎯 Fact.: 3.60%

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⚠️ Australia — RBA Media Conference at 05:30 GMT

RBA predictably cut rates, supporting stocks and pressuring Aussie

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, sticking to its pace of one cut per quarter or every other meeting.

The RBA noted that inflation is moving in line with expectations, falling to 2.7% y/y on a trimmed mean basis and 2.1% on a headline basis. The central bank forecasts that inflation will remain close to the centre of the 2-3% target range and that the key rate will continue to decline.

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Crypto rally stalls as market awaits key US inflation data

The crypto market capitalisation fell below the $4 trillion mark, down 1.8% over the last day. Bitcoin failed to stay above $120K, Ethereum's growth stalled at $4300, and many major altcoins have seen declines in the last couple of days.

Bitcoin closed Monday near its opening levels, losing nearly 3% of its 3.5% jump at the start of the day to $119K. There are fears of a repeat of the situation we saw in July, when a promising breakthrough turned into an exhausting sideways movement and rattled nerves with a decline in the first days of August. We attribute the BTC pullback to the cautious mood of major players ahead of US inflation data released later on Tuesday.

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⚠️ USA — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.3% | 2.7%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 2.8%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% | 2.7% 📉

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⚠️ USA — Core CPI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.2% | 2.9%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% | 3.1% 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈Following the inflation data, positive dynamics prevail in the US stock market premarket.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up 0.93%, and Apple (AAPL) shares are up 0.40%.

In the Finance sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up 0.67%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are up 0.63%.

In the Technology sector, Meta Platforms (META) shares are up 0.96%, while Google (GOOGL) shares are up 0.59%.

The prevailing growth in leading sectors and major companies reflects investors' appetite for risk, which could stimulate capital inflows into the US market and support the dollar in the short term.

Markets initially ignored the acceleration of the US Core CPI

The US consumer inflation report raised market confidence in a September Fed rate cut to 90%, boosting demand for equities and moderately weakening the dollar.

The overall consumer price index remained at 2.7% y/y in July, while an acceleration to 2.8% was expected, once again falling short of average forecasts. Market analysts have been systematically overestimating inflation since February, expecting a greater price response from the president's tariff policy.

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