⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 227K

🕒 Exp: 225K

🎯 Fact.: 224K 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📉 The US stock market is experiencing negative dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the finance sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -0.63%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are losing -0.50%.

In the electronics sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.43%, while Broadcom (AVGO) shares are down -0.89%.

In the retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up +0.39%, while Home Depot (HD) shares are down -1.36%.

Widespread sell-offs in large companies could intensify capital outflows and put pressure on the dollar.

Strong data support further growth of the pound

An extensive package of statistics on the United Kingdom published on Thursday morning showed mostly better-than-expected data, excluding foreign trade data. However, strong fundamental data failed to support the pound, which appears somewhat exhausted from its growth over the past couple of weeks.

The economy grew by 0.4% in June, against expectations of 0.2%, and it also delivered growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The services sector continues to make a positive contribution to the economy, with the index rising by 0.3% in June after 0.1% in May. The industrial production index added 0.7% in June, but this was after an accumulated decline of 1.5% over the previous three months. The UK industrial production index has been drifting around current levels for the past three years.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/15 (GMT)

02:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production — Exp: 6.0% Actual: 5.7% | 6.3%

02:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment — Exp: 2.7% Actual: 1.6%

02:00 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | 0.3% Actual: 0.5% | 0.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index — Exp: -1.0 Actual: 11.9

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.0% Actual: -0.1%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 61.9 Actual: 58.6


[Updated in real time]

CAC40 Wave Analysis – 14 August 2025

- CAC40 rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)

- Likely to reach resistance level 7965.00

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DAX Wave Analysis – 14 August 2025

- DAX reversed from the support level of 23500.00

- Likely to reach resistance level 24625.00

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AUDCAD Wave Analysis – 14 August 2025

- AUDCAD reversed from the round resistance level of 0.9000

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8900

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 14 August 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from the strong resistance 122770.00

- Likely to fall to support level 115000.00

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⚠️ Japan — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.0% | -0.2%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | 0.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% 📈 | 1.0% 📈

🎦 Watch our new Weekly Pro video on YouTube!

Dollar Falls, Stocks Hit Records & Ether Outshines Bitcoin

In this episode of Pro News Weekly, we break down the latest market moves:

💵 US Dollar slips as Fed rate-cut bets rise

📈 S&P 500 sets fresh records amid bullish sentiment

🪙 Gold struggles to break free from its range despite dollar weakness

💎 Ethereum steals the spotlight from Bitcoin with surging inflows

We also look ahead to the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and key global economic data. What could Jerome Powell’s speech mean for markets?

Don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more weekly updates from FxPro!

Markets digested the shocking US PPI too quickly

The release of US producer price data briefly shocked local markets. The data came in significantly higher than expected, reviving doubts that the Fed has a clear way to cut rates.

Producer prices rose 0.9% last month after 0.0% the previous month, while annual inflation accelerated from 2.4% to 3.3% against expectations of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The core index, excluding raw materials and energy, grew just as rapidly in July: +0.9% m/m and +3.7% y/y, after 0.0% m/m and 2.6% y/y a month earlier.

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The bear attack on Bitcoin is frightening, but it does not break the trend

The crypto market is clearly struggling to move upwards, as historic highs are also attracting sellers. On Friday morning, the total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies stood at $4.03 trillion, reflecting a 3.4% decline over 24 hours. Although this is unpleasant for bulls, it looks like a necessary correction to let off steam while the market remains above the July highs of $3.90-3.95 trillion, a break below which would signal a trend reversal.

Bitcoin fell to $117K on Thursday, becoming the first domino to fall, which subsequently pulled down the entire cryptocurrency market. This is further evidence of increased selling pressure shortly after the historic highs were updated. We believe that the fairly coordinated attack by bears is a cover for careful but abundant purchases on dips. It is worth sounding the alarm if there is a break below the 50-day average at $115K and the area of recent lows at $112K.

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⚠️ USA — Retail Sales at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.9% | 0.8%

🕒 Exp: 0.6% | 0.3%

🎯 Fact.: 0.5% 📉 | 0.3%

Gold is preparing the ground for a long-term trend

Gold fell to $3,330 this week in response to reports that the White House was unwilling to impose tariffs on metal imports. Prior to that, the US Customs and Border Protection agency had demanded that Switzerland pay a fee for the delivery of 100-ounce and 1-kilogram bars, which pushed spot prices to the upper limit of the medium-term range of $3,250–3,400, futures reached record highs, and premiums between New York and London exceeded $100 per ounce.

Donald Trump personally announced that there would be no tariffs on gold. This deprived gold of an important driver and caused it to retreat. However, the decline is limited by a risk-friendly environment with rising stocks and pressure on the dollar as inflation accelerates. Therefore, the fall in the USD index creates a tailwind for gold. As does the decline in Treasury bond yields.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 The US stock market premarket is showing mostly positive dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, APPLE (APPL) shares are up 0.10%, while AMD (AMD) shares are down 0.06%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up 0.71%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down slightly by 0.04%.

In the technology sector, Google's (GOOGL) shares are up 0.82%, while Microsoft's (MSFT) shares are up 0.13%.

The predominance of growth among key companies with high capitalisation contributes to a moderate inflow of investment capital into the US market. It has a supportive effect on the dollar, confirming the stability of investment sentiment.

US Retail Sales are growing steadily, except for building materials

Retail sales in the US came in line with expectations, allowing markets to breathe a sigh of relief after surprises from CPI and PPI. Sales in monetary terms rose 0.2% m/m after 0.8% a month earlier. By July last year, growth was 3.9%, outpacing inflation of 2.7%. Sales excluding automobiles rose 0.3% m/m after rising 0.8% the previous month. This indicator shows a surprisingly steady upward trend since the beginning of 2024 and does not indicate any difficulties in consumer activity.

This may be indicated by the decline in sales of building materials over the last three years or so, raising fears of a possible repeat of the mortgage crisis. At that time, spending peaked at the end of 2005 and declined over the next five years. At the same time, in 2007, problems with banks began to surface one after another, linked to the cooling of the market.

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What is ahead: European Inflation & Jackson Hole

The central event of the week leading up to the 22nd of August will be the meeting of central bank governors in Jackson Hole. In the past, regulators have occasionally signalled changes in monetary policy. Now something similar is expected from Jerome Powell. For a long time, the Fed has taken a cautious approach. It has been trying to assess how the White House's tariffs are affecting inflation and the US economy. The cooling of the labour market from May to July is forcing the Fed to resume its cycle of rate cuts in September.

It may seem that Jerome Powell is yielding to political pressure. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Sussman are calling on the Fed to cut rates aggressively. What will the Fed chairman's speech in Jackson Hole be like? Financial markets will be watching him closely.

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Ethereum Wave Analysis – 15 August 2025

- Ethereum reversed from the long-term resistance level 4755.

- Likely to fall to support level 4115.00

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Solana Wave Analysis – 15 August 2025

- Solana reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 173.55

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