Mastercard Wave Analysis – 17 September 2025

- Mastercard broke daily down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 600.00

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⚠️ New Zealand — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.9% | -0.6%

🕒 Exp: -0.3% | 0.0%

🎯 Fact.: -0.9% 📉 | -0.6% 📉

⚠️ Australia — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 26.5K

🕒 Exp: 21.2K

🎯 Fact.: -5.4K 📉

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⚠️ Australia — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.2%

🕒 Exp: 4.2%

🎯 Fact.: 4.2%

The crypto market has returned to its highs, despite Bitcoin’s sluggishness

The crypto market capitalisation gained 1% in 24 hours to $4.10 billion due to a global increase in risk appetite against the backdrop of the Fed's decision to cut rates and plans for further policy easing. The total market capitalisation is close to a record high, having been higher only briefly on 14 August. The market has been driven over the past week by altcoins such as BNB, SOL and DOGE, which have gained over 10% compared to 2.6% for BTC.

Bitcoin is trading above $117K, rising to an intraday high of $117.8K, its highest level in exactly one month. Its dynamics are well within September's upward range, but the last four days have kept it there only thanks to the efforts of the bulls. They are buying the coin at the lower end of the channel. In contrast, many major altcoins are steadily rising.

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⚠️ UK — Bank of England Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.00%

🕒 Exp: 4.00%

🎯 Fact.: 4.00%

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⚠️ UK — MPC Official Bank Rate Votes at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0-5-4

🕒 Exp: 0-1-8

🎯 Fact.: 0-2-7 📉

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 264K

🕒 Exp: 241K

🎯 Fact.: 231K 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 Positive dynamics prevail in the US stocks premarket.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +2.77%, while AVGO (AVGO) shares are up +1.63%.

In the Financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down 0.07%, while Bank of America (BAC) is up 0.41%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up 0.97%, while General Motors (GM) is up 0.65%.

Growth in key large-cap companies indicates a steady improvement in risk appetite among investors, which may contribute to the strengthening of the dollar through increased investment interest in US assets.

Citibank Wave Analysis – 18 September 2025

- Citibank broke the daily up channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 105.00

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USDCHF Wave Analysis – 18 September 2025

- USDCHF reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8000

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The dollar has once again avoided falling into the abyss. At least for now…

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, as predicted by the markets. Published forecasts showed that the Fed is set to ease policy in October and December as well. This was also the main scenario priced into the quotes, but the reduction in uncertainty supported risk appetite for stocks.

The scenario of three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts (including yesterday's) is gaining momentum. The chances of a cut in January are now more obvious at 42%, compared to 14% a month ago. Expectations of lower rates were an important driver of the 7% growth in the Nasdaq100 and 5% in the S&P500 during this period.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/09/19 (GMT)

03:47 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.50% Actual: 0.50%

03:47 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.4% | 0.6% Actual: 0.5% | 0.7%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.3% | 0.8% Actual: 0.8% | 1.2%

06:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Press Conference

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: -0.6% | -0.4% Actual: -0.8% | -1.2%

18:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Mary Daly Speaks


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ Japan — National Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.1%

🕒 Exp: 2.8%

🎯 Fact.: 2.7% 📉

⚠️ Japan — Overnight Call Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.50%

🕒 Exp: 0.50%

🎯 Fact.: 0.50%

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⚠️ Japan — BOJ Press Conference at 06:30 GMT

Fed’s dovish stance buoyed the stock market

Buy the rumours, sell the facts. The US dollar was actively sold ahead of the announcement of the Fed meeting results. Investors expected the central bank to cut rates, with the FOMC's updated forecasts showing two more acts of monetary expansion before the end of 2025, and the number of dissenters increasing from two in July to three.

In reality, only the first two expectations were met. The September forecast did indeed include two more rate cuts this year. The Fed lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% with 11 votes out of 12. Only the recently appointed president, Stephen Miran, voted for a 50 bp cut. However, after the initial downward impulse, the USD index went on a counterattack.

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The pound weakens despite the data

The British pound has been losing ground against the US dollar for the third day in a row, falling back to 1.35. This trend runs counter to the news coming out these days, which could be either an early indicator of a change in market conditions, a short-term technical shake-up, or traders' concerns about the political situation in the UK.

On Wednesday evening, the Fed cut its key rate, predicted two more cuts this year and indicated its readiness to ease policy in 2026. The Bank of England, on the other hand, kept its rate unchanged at 4.0% on Thursday, and market analysts concluded from the accompanying comments that there would be no further easing this year.

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▶️ Pro News Weekly Video: Dollar Rebounds, Gold Breaks Records, Stocks & Crypto Rally

In today’s Pro News Weekly:

💵 The US dollar rose on the facts after the Fed’s rate cut

📊 Stocks dipped, then bounced, with bulls eyeing fresh highs

🥇 Gold smashed through $3,700 to set new records

🪙 Bitcoin held strong while altcoins like Ethereum and BNB gained momentum

👉 We’ll also look at what’s next for EURUSD, the Fed, and key economic data that could shake markets this September.

🔔 Don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more weekly updates from FxPro!