ADP reports two consecutive months of job losses in the private sector

Independent data provider ADP reported a decline of 32k jobs in the US private sector in September. The data was significantly worse than the expected growth of 50k. Moreover, August figures were revised down from +54k to -3k. ADP thus paints a very bleak labour market picture, while recent revisions to official figures suggested that June was the worst point since the beginning of the year, followed by slight growth.

ADP data has lost much of its influence on the markets in recent years, proving to be a weak predictor of Friday's official release, as originally intended. But this time, there is a risk that the official release will not be published on Friday at all due to the US government shutdown. The funding freeze has a significant impact on statistical services, which are considered less of a priority than courts, the military, and doctors.

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Zcash Wave Analysis – 30 September 2025

- Zcash broke key resistance level 76.75

- Likely to rise to resistance level 100.00

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 30 September 2025

- Bitcoin broke daily Triangle

- Likely to rise to resistance level 120000.00

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EURJPY Wave Analysis – 1 October 2025

- EURJPY broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support levels 172.00 and 171.00

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Kraft Heinz Wave Analysis – 1 October 2025

Kraft Heinz: ⬆️ Buy

- Kraft Heinz reversed from support zone

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/10/02 (GMT)

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: -0.2% | 0.3% Actual: -0.2% | 0.2%


[Updated in real time]

The cryptocurrency market soared to extremes

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation soared by 4% over the past day to $4.07 trillion. The capitalisation has soared into the extreme zone, above which it was only briefly in mid-August and mid-September. Cryptocurrency investors are convinced that the US government shutdown is not dampening risk appetite, and macroeconomic data is pushing the Fed to ease its policy further.

The sentiment index rose to 64 (greed), reaching its highest level in the last six weeks. However, the index is far from extreme greed, leaving significant potential for further strengthening.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 219K

🎯 Fact.: 232K

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈The US stocks show mostly positive dynamics before the regular session opens.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +1.38%, and AMD (AMD) shares are up +3.06%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -0.26%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.09%.

In the Technology sector, Meta Platforms (META) shares are up +1.03%, while Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down -0.28%.

The prevailing growth trend among the most capitalised companies on the stock market is contributing to the strengthening of the dollar by boosting investor confidence and increasing capital inflows into US assets.

Low inflation in Switzerland confirms the strength of the franc

Consumer prices in Switzerland fell by 0.2% in September. Annual price growth was 0.2%, remaining at this level for the last three months and slightly below the average forecast of 0.3%.

The decline was due to the strengthening of the franc, which lowered prices for air and transport services. These data are further evidence that the Swiss National Bank had room to cut rates. However, at its last meeting, it preferred to keep them at zero, opting for more situational measures – currency interventions.

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BitcoinCash Wave Analysis – 2 October 2025

- BitcoinCash reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.936

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Cardano Wave Analysis – 2 October 2025

- Cardano reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.936

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Toncoin Wave Analysis – 2 October 2025

- Toncoin reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3.000

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Mastercard Wave Analysis – 2 October 2025

- Mastercard rising inside impulse wave 3

- Likely to rise to resistance levels 585.00 and 600.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/10/03 (GMT)

01:05 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

07:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 48.5

07:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.4 Actual: 48.1

07:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 52.5 Actual: 51.5

07:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.4 Actual: 52.0

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.4 Actual: 51.3

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 51.2

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.9 Actual: 50.8

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 50.1

09:40 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

13:20 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 53.9 Actual: 54.2

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 53.6 Actual: 53.9

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 51.8 Actual: 50.0


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ Japan — BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks at 01:05 GMT

Publication of US data suspended due to shutdown

The publication of US data from government agencies will be suspended due to the government shutdown. In particular, the labour market report will not be released on Friday.

However, much of the data from private-sector sources will continue to be released.

The following is a calendar of economic reports scheduled to be issued in the coming days. It notes which releases will be suspended during a shutdown and which will continue to be issued.

https://fxpro.news/brokers-news/publication-of-us-data-suspended-due-to-shutdown-20251003/

The US government shutdown is pressing dollar

The shutdown came as a bolt from the blue for the US dollar. The greenback was confident that Democrats and Republicans would reach a last-minute agreement. That did not happen. During previous government shutdowns, the dollar index typically fell on expectations of slowing GDP and mass layoffs. In 2025, the situation will worsen because the labour market is already cooling down.

Due to the shutdown, the publication of important data will be postponed. Therefore, the importance of the ADP report increases. Over the last two months, there has been a decline in private sector employment. This increased the chances of a federal funds rate cut in October to 99% and in December to 87%. Treasury bond yields and the US dollar fell.

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