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The crypto market quickly met resistance

The crypto market capitalisation lost 2.8% over the past day to $3.81 trillion. On Monday, the 50-day moving average acted as local resistance. The recovery rebound did not find a solid foundation, as many investors doubt that the risks of sudden trade conflicts will quickly disappear. BNB recorded a 10% drop, while Zcash lost almost twice as much, retreating after a more than 300% rally in the last 30 days. XRP and Dogecoin are down more than 5%.

Bitcoin is down nearly 3% in 24 hours, falling below $112K. In July-September, the first cryptocurrency found buyers on dips in the $108-109K range, and the intrigue of the day is whether it will find them now. Like the crypto market, BTCUSD is trading below the 50-day MA but above the 200-day MA. Consolidation below the long average could be a repeat of the situation at the end of 2021, when a bear market started.

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🍁 USDCAD up to 1.4060, hitting 6-month high
How do you feel about USDCAD now?
Anonymous Poll
37%
πŸ“‰ Bearish
20%
➑️ Neutral
43%
πŸ“ˆ Bullish
The pound continues to decline, with an important support test ahead

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK rose by 25.8K in September after three months of decline, totalling 50.8K and a stronger-than-expected 10K increase. The unemployment rate for the three months to August rose to 4.8%, the highest since May 2021, although average forecasts had predicted no change.

The deterioration in the labour market opens the door for softer rhetoric from the Bank of England. In modern history, major developed economies have often moved in lockstep with the Fed when it eased policy. Although the Bank of England did its part earlier this year, it is possible that the slowdown in the US economy will also put pressure on Britain, in addition to tariff disputes, and will be a sobering factor after a period of strong growth in the service sector, which drove GDP upwards after 2022.

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Time for one more TACO-trade?

Donald Trump's announcements about the resumption of the trade war with China and additional 100% tariffs came as a complete surprise to investors at the end of last week. The S&P 500 fell at its fastest pace since April. According to Morgan Stanley, the broad stock index will fall 8 to 11% if Washington and Beijing fail to reach an agreement by November.

In fact, neither the US nor China is interested in escalating the trade conflict. Donald Trump is breathing down the neck of the American stock market. He will not allow a deep correction of the S&P 500. The White House owner does not want to distract attention from his role in ending the war in the Middle East. Beijing is eager for Xi Jinping to meet with the US president.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US pre-market

πŸ“‰ The US stock market is experiencing negative dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -1.68%, and Broadcom (AVGO) is losing -2.58%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -0.37%, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -0.96%.

In the Technology sector, Google (GOOGLE) shares are down -1.80%, and Oracle (ORCL) shares are down -1.54%.

Widespread sell-offs in major companies are weighing on investor sentiment, which could lead to capital outflows and a further decline in the dollar on the currency market.
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⚠️ USA β€” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks at 16:20 GMT
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⚠️ UK β€” BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 17:00 GMT
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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/10/15 (GMT)

01:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ ⚑️ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: -0.2% Actual: -0.3%

01:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Producer Price Index β€” Exp: -2.3% Actual: -2.3%

09:03 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ New Yuan Loans β€” Exp: 1460B Actual: 1290B

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Empire State Manufacturing Index β€” Exp: -1.9 Actual: 10.7

17:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks

19:45 πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί ⚑️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks


[Updated in real time]
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FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/10/15 (GMT) 01:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ ⚑️ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: -0.2% Actual: -0.3% 01:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Producer Price Index β€” Exp: -2.3% Actual: -2.3% 09:03 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ New Yuan Loans β€” Exp: 1460B Actual: 1290B 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Empire State Manufacturing…»
⚠️ China β€” Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: -0.4%

πŸ•’ Exp: -0.2%

🎯 Fact.: -0.3% πŸ“‰
The crypto market remains stable but has no reason to grow

The crypto market capitalisation has changed slightly over the past day, adding 0.1% to $3.83 trillion. Monday's recovery was interrupted by a new wave of sales, albeit less intense. The bears seem to have had their fill and are already losing some of their strength. However, potential buyers prefer to wait for a reason to buy, and trading disputes do not yet provide such a reason.

The sentiment index has fallen back to 34 (fear) from 38, where it had remained for the previous two days. Away from the β€˜extreme fear’ zone, the market does not attract the most desperate speculators, leaving room for further decline.

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The dollar prefers to stay within the range for now

The US dollar turned downward at the end of the day on Tuesday and continues to move downward in the first half of Wednesday. The dollar is being weighed down by the recovery of positive momentum in the stock markets. Pressure on the dollar can also be linked to Powell's latest comments yesterday evening. The Fed chairman confirmed the path to further rate cuts and said asset sales from the balance sheet could be halted soon, ending the quantitative tightening phase.

Such statements should not come as a shock to the markets, merely confirming previously announced plans. However, the dollar index reacted strongly to them, as it was in a resistance zone. The DXY once again encountered the same resistance near 99.30, from which it retreated in early August. This line also coincides with the area of corrective pullback to 76.4% from the highs in January to the lows at the start of July.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US pre-market

πŸ“ˆThe US stocks show mostly positive dynamics before the regular session opens.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +2.59%, while APPLE (AAPL) shares are up +1.01%.

In the Retail sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are up +0.73%, while Walmart (WMT) shares are up +0.35%.

In the Healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares are down slightly by -0.45%, while Abbott (ABT) shares are losing -3.23%.

The prevalence of growth among large-cap technology and retail stocks, despite isolated declines in healthcare, is supporting the US dollar through stabilising investment inflows and contributing to its gradual strengthening against the background of optimistic market sentiment.
πŸ“Š Russell 2000 +1%, new ATH despite trade tensions πŸ“£
How do you feel about Russell now?
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50%
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23%
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27%
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