⚠️ Australia — RBA Media Conference at 04:30 GMT

Crypto is on the verge of a bear market

The crypto market cap has fallen to $3.47 trillion. This is 4% lower than the previous day and 19% off from the global peak set just four weeks ago. Sellers are pushing cryptocurrencies into bear market territory (unofficially, this occurs when there is a 20% decline from the peak) in the hope that the sell-off will be self-sustaining near this point. However, we are also seeing signs of a similar accelerated sell-off at the start of the week, following a lull from Friday to Sunday.

The sentiment index has fallen to 21, the lowest level since 9 April, indicating extreme fear. Last month, entering this territory triggered a rebound, but the market has already fallen below those levels. As we previously suggested, the initial surge of extreme fear levels is only the beginning of a prolonged period of volatility in this territory. This period is also characterised by an even more substantial decline in altcoins compared to the first cryptocurrency.

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The euro holds on by a thread

The US is poised for a record shutdown.

Weak PMI data halted the dollar.

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▶️ GOLD. Current situation. #trading #gold #goldprice #tradelikeapro #trandingshorts

Today is Tuesday, November 4th, and we're gonna talk about the gold market.

#trading #gold #goldprice #tradelikeapro #trandingshorts

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The S&P 500 keeps going north

The higher the S&P 500 climbs, the more comparisons are made to the dot-com crisis. At the beginning of the 21st century, inflated valuations of internet companies triggered a collapse in the US stock market. In contrast, today's tech giants are performing very well. The third-quarter corporate reporting season is the strongest in four years. Already, 60% of issuers have reported their results. Most of them exceeded earnings forecasts.

Bank of America notes that global equity ETFs attracted $17.2 billion by the end of the week on October 29th. Any positive news about artificial intelligence boosts US stock indices. For example, news of a multi-year $38 billion deal between Amazon and OpenAI, as well as Microsoft's permission to supply NVIDIA chips to Saudi Arabia, led to a rally in the stocks of the Magnificent Seven.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are down -2.36%, while Oracle (ORCL) shares are down -2.99%.

In the Financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up 0.07%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down 0.90%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down -3.09%, while General Motors (GM) shares are losing -0.75%.

Widespread sell-offs in large companies could accelerate capital outflows and put pressure on the dollar.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/11/05 (GMT)

00:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby Speaks

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI Actual: 51.8

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 52.6 Actual: 52.6

08:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 47.1 Actual: 48.0

08:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 46.8 Actual: 47.7

08:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 54.5 Actual: 54.6

08:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 53.8 Actual: 53.9

09:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 52.6 Actual: 53.0

09:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.2 Actual: 52.5

09:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 52.3

09:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.1 Actual: 52.2

13:15 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 31K Actual: 42K

14:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 55.2 Actual: 54.8

14:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 54.8 Actual: 54.6

15:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 52.4

15:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -2400K Actual: 5.202K

21:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks


[Updated in real time]

EURNZD Wave Analysis – 4 November 2025

- EURNZD reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 2.0430

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⚠️ New Zealand — Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1% | -0.9%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | -0.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.0% 📉 | -0.6% 📉

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⚠️ New Zealand — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 5.2%

🕒 Exp: 5.3%

🎯 Fact.: 5.3%

EURAUD Wave Analysis – 4 November 2025

- EURAUD reversed from support level 1.7600

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.8085

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AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 4 November 2025

- AUDJPY reversed from key resistance level 101.00

- Likely to fall to support level 99.00

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Binance Coin Wave Analysis – 4 November 2025

Binance Coin: ⬇️ Sell

- Binance Coin broke round support level 1000.00

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If the 4-year cycles are still alive, BTC faces a pullback to $70K

The crypto market continues its impressive decline, losing another 2.4% over the past 24 hours. Having fallen to a low of $3.3 trillion, the market is now at its lowest point since early July. A steady move below the 200-day moving average and a drop of more than 20% from its peak are sure signs of a bear market. Perhaps crypto enthusiasts are confident that this is a temporary decline, similar to the one seen in March and April. However, we would prefer not to rule out the possibility of another bear market starting in the coming years. At a time when many have buried the 4-year cycles, we still see that they have only lost amplitude but have generally retained their influence. According to these patterns, the market is close to or has already passed its peak for the next couple of years, which explains the intense selling pressure since October.

Bitcoin fell to five-digit price levels overnight, touching lows just below $99,000 twice. BTC traded steadily below these levels from February to May. And then there was a psychologically significant consolidation period in December and January. The market is now undergoing a critical test. Another step down will open the way to the $60,000-$70,000 range. However, there is a theoretical chance that BTC will quickly rebound by the end of the week from the 50-week moving average, which has served as a global support since the first half of 2023.

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Forex goes to safe havens

The shutdown may end soon.

Increased volatility supports the dollar.

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⚠️ USA — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -29K

🕒 Exp: 31K

🎯 Fact.: 42K 📈

NVDA Wave Analysis – 5 November 2025

- NVDA reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 193.75

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Solana Wave Analysis – 5 November 2025

- Solana reversed from key support level 150.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 175.20

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mixed dynamics 📉📈

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up +0.57%, while AMD (AMD) shares are down −2.01%.

In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up 0.24%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down 1.10%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are up +1.51%, while in the Technology sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are down −0.08%.

Mixed signals from key sectors are creating uncertainty for the dollar in the short term, making the market sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic data and investment flows.

⚠️ USA — ISM Services PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 50.0

🕒 Exp: 50.8

🎯 Fact.: 52.4 📈