Geopolitics raises risk premiums, supporting Brent

During crises and turmoil in the global economy or politics, market sentiment outweighs fundamental factors. Geopolitical risk premiums are currently estimated at $5-7 per barrel. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine, are the main drivers of oil market pricing.

Over the past two years, the supply of black gold has consistently exceeded demand. As a result, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, global reserves grew by a record 477 million barrels in 2025 due to increased production in the US, Brazil, OPEC+ and other countries. This is equivalent to 1.3 million barrels per day, which has led to a bear market for Brent and WTI.

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

⚠️ Canada — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.2% | 2.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | 2.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.0% 📉 | 2.3% 📉

🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Large technology and consumer companies are trading in the red, setting a generally cautious tone.

In the electronics sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -1.07%, while Broadcom (AVGO) shares are losing about -1.77%.

In the financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up about +0.34%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are up +0.40%.

In the consumer durables sector, Tesla (TSLA) shares are down -1.36%, while in the transport sector, UBER (UBER) shares are showing minimal growth of +0.01%.

The predominance of sales in the largest capitalisation stocks, especially in the technology segment, indicates a shift away from risk within the US market; this creates a favourable backdrop for short-term support for the dollar due to demand for defensive dollar assets and Treasury bonds.

▶️ Pro News Flash: Oil Rally Powered by Politics

🟢 Oil markets are being driven less by supply and demand and more by politics. Geopolitical tensions have added an estimated $5 to $7 per barrel risk premium, pushing Brent higher as traders react to uncertainty rather than fundamentals.

📊 Ironically, the last two years were defined by oversupply. The International Energy Agency estimates global inventories surged by 477 million barrels in 2025 thanks to increased production from the US, Brazil and OPEC+. That surplus kept both Brent and WTI stuck in a prolonged bear market.

🌍 Now attention has shifted to diplomacy and conflict. Negotiations involving the US and Iran, along with the ongoing Russia Ukraine standoff, have become the main forces setting oil prices as traders weigh the risk of global economic disruption.

🚢 In a worst case scenario, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, potentially sending Brent toward $108 per barrel. At the same time tighter sanctions on Russia are forcing major buyers to seek alternative supplies, increasing demand for non Russian crude.

🛢️ OPEC+ may also act. Sources suggest production hikes could begin as early as April, while some forecasts expect remaining voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day to be unwound within six months, potentially capping further upside.

📉 In a calmer outcome, analysts expect diplomatic agreements by summer. If tensions fade, Brent could settle around $65 to $70 before weaker fundamentals pull prices closer to $60 to $62.

📅 The oil market now hinges on one question. Will geopolitics override fundamentals, or will supply once again dominate pricing?

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

▶️ Add instruments to favourites

Keep all your favourite assets in one list!

Personalise your trading by adding any instrument to Favourites.

Just swipe left on a quote and tap the star icon.

To remove it, swipe left and tap the star again.

Your curated watchlist, instantly organised with FxPro!

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

Baidu Wave Analysis – 17 February 2026

- Baidu reversed from support level 135.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 150.00

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

Citibank Wave Analysis – 17 February 2026

- Citibank reversed from key support level 110.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 124.00

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/02/18 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 Wage Price Index — Exp: 0.8% | 3.4% Actual: 0.8% | 3.4%

01:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Official Cash Rate — Exp: 2.25% Actual: 2.25%

01:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Rate Statement

01:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Press Conference

07:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: -0.5% | 3.0% Actual: -0.5% | 3.0%

07:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.1%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: -0.4% | 3.9% Actual: -0.5% | 3.8%

07:00 🇬🇧 Producer Price Index Input — Exp: 0.4% | 0.3% Actual: 0.4% | -0.2%

13:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders — Exp: -1.7% | 0.3% Actual: -1.4% | 0.9%

13:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1400K Actual: 1448K | 4.3%

13:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1310K Actual: 1404K | 6.2%

14:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.4% Actual: 0.7%

19:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Meeting Minutes

19:10 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Governor Anna Breman Speaks


[Updated in real time]

S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 17 February 2026

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

- S&P 500 reversed from pivotal support level 6800.00

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

Exxon Mobil Wave Analysis – 17 February 2026

Exxon Mobil: ⬇️ Sell

- Exxon Mobil reversed from resistance level 155.00

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

⚠️ New Zealand — Official Cash Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.25%

🕒 Exp: 2.25%

🎯 Fact.: 2.25%

———

⚠️ New Zealand — RBNZ Press Conference at 02:00 GMT

⚠️ UK — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.4% | 3.4%

🕒 Exp: -0.5% | 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: -0.5% | 3.0%

Bitcoin’s worrying slips down

The crypto market cap has been hovering around $2.34-2.35T for the third day in a row. Volatility seems to have been turned off in this market, while stock indices are much livelier. There, investors are actively buying up dips, relying on support in the form of important moving averages: 50-day for the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 and 200-day for the Nasdaq100. The crypto market is now below its 50- and 200-day curves by 17% and 31%, respectively. If cryptocurrencies still play a role as an indicator of risk appetite, it points to disaster.

By and large, the cryptocurrency sentiment index says the same thing, falling to 8 at the start of the day on Wednesday. The indicator has been in single digits for nine of the last fourteen days. This is worse than the darkest moments of 2020 and 2022. It seems that as the cryptocurrency market matures, it is becoming less optimistic. On the other hand, it is also becoming less volatile.

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

The pound loses confidence

Weakness in the labour market forces the Bank of England to cut rates.

India's near-record imports provide support for precious metals.

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

▶️ View trading history

Analyse your performance by reviewing your past trades.

In the 'Trade' section, simply tap the 'History' button at the top.

You'll see all your past orders and can tap on any trade to see in-depth details, or filter them by date.

Master your strategy with FxPro!

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 18 February 2026

- NZDUSD reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 0.5950

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

USDJPY Wave Analysis – 18 February 2026

- USDJPY reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 155.15

——————
FxPro. Trade Like a Pro. | Subscribe | Boost

🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly positive 📈

The growth in the prices of the largest technology, energy and financial companies significantly outweighs the decline.

In the Technology Services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up +0.37%, while Meta Platforms (META) shares are down -0.66%.

In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are up +0.36%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -0.09%.

In the Energy Minerals sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are up +1.50%, while Chevron (CVX) shares are up +1.44%.

The prevailing growth of highly capitalised issuers is creating a risk-on environment within the US: interest in stocks and corporate risk is high, while demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset is subdued. In the absence of signs of a large-scale capital outflow from the US, the short-term dynamics of the dollar are likely to remain neutral, with trading in a range without a clear trend towards strengthening.