🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/02 (GMT)

09:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 50.8

09:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 52.0 Actual: 51.7

14:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

14:30 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Actual: 51.0

15:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.7 Actual: 52.4

21:10 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market is waiting for a signal from outside

The crypto market capitalisation is roughly where it was a week ago, even though the world has changed dramatically. Events surrounding Iran initially caused cryptocurrencies to fall over the weekend, but they then rebounded, returning closer to the middle of their recent trading range. Retail traders, who dominated over the weekend, balanced between the bullish factor from geopolitics and the somewhat depressed sentiment that has prevailed in cryptocurrencies since October. We still believe that cryptocurrencies remain in a bear market, although it is worth keeping a close eye on the bullish risks for Bitcoin.

The first cryptocurrency fell to $63K over the weekend, soon rebounding to $66K, where it currently stands. In the current geopolitical situation, playing it safe is the best short-term strategy for Bitcoin. It may be wiser to let more established markets such as oil, gold and bonds take the lead during periods of geopolitical tension. In addition, the current wait-and-see attitude towards BTC is fully justified by technical factors and was anticipated by us weeks ago, as this area was an important resistance zone in 2024.

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The Middle East is changing the game in Forex

The US dollar may receive support from rising oil prices.

Geopolitics is driving up inflation in Japan.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, the US stock market is showing negative dynamics in pre-market trading.

In the Technology Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are down -2.66%, while Microsoft (MSFT) shares are losing -0.44%.

In the financial sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down -1.47%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -1.53%.

At the same time, the Energy Minerals sector is showing growth, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares rising +4.85% and Chevron (CVX) shares adding +3.53%.

In the currency market, the broad decline in the quotes of major technology and financial companies, coupled with selective demand for energy, indicates risk aversion within the US, which supports demand for defensive dollar assets and creates conditions for a moderate strengthening of the US dollar.

⚠️ USA — ISM Manufacturing PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 52.6

🕒 Exp: 51.7

🎯 Fact.: 52.4 📈

⚠️ Australia — RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks at 21:10 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/03 (GMT)

04:00 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 1.7% Actual: 1.9%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.2% Actual: 2.4%

12:30 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Annual Budget Release


[Updated in real time]

CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 2 March 2026

- CHFJPY reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 200.00

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 2 March 2026

- EURUSD broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.1600

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⚠️ Japan — BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks at 04:00 GMT

The crypto market failed to break out of its range

The crypto market cap grew by 2.6% to $2.33 trillion. The market remains stuck in a narrow range, moving from the lower boundary on Saturday to the upper boundary at the start of the day on Tuesday. At times like this, attention turns to whether there will be an upward breakout and a reversal of the February pattern. On the sellers' side, the pull towards the dollar is a strong headwind for USD-denominated quotes. On the other hand, this is a chance for Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies to play their role as a safe haven, providing shelter from the storm.

Bitcoin rose to $70K, but Tuesday morning's decline brought its price back to $67K, indicating significant resistance from sellers on the upside. The first cryptocurrency failed to break out of horizontal consolidation, which again forces us to consider a decline to $63K as a working scenario.

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⚠️ UK — Annual Budget Release at 12:30 GMT

Euro spooked by crisis

The US dollar is rising on a flight to safe havens.

EURUSD under pressure from soaring energy prices.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

In the electronic technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down 2.55%, while Broadcom (AVGO) shares are down 2.77%.

In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down -2.04%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -2.13%.

In the Consumer Services sector, McDonald's (MCD) shares are down -1.14%, while Walt Disney (DIS) shares are losing -1.13%.

The prevailing decline in the quotes of the largest technology, financial and consumer companies reflects the continuing risk aversion in the US market, which is providing short-term support for the dollar due to increased demand for US safe-haven assets.

▶️ Pro News Flash: Dollar Surges as Oil Spikes and Fed Cut Hopes Fade

🟢 The US dollar is gaining momentum as rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields reshape the macro landscape. Higher energy costs are fueling inflation risks, forcing markets to rethink expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

📈 According to Federal Reserve research, a 10% jump in crude oil prices could lift inflation by 0.15 percentage points next year. With Brent and WTI pushing higher, traders have shifted expectations for the first Fed rate cut from June to July, sending EURUSD lower.

🛢️ Energy markets are once again in focus. The US, now a net energy exporter, stands to benefit from elevated oil and gas prices linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In contrast, Europe remains heavily dependent on energy imports, increasing pressure on the euro.

🌍 If the Middle East conflict drags on and oil supply tightens further, Brent could surge toward $120 per barrel. Such a move would likely strengthen the dollar sharply while European currencies face renewed downside risk, echoing the 2021 to 2022 energy crisis when EURUSD briefly slipped below parity.

💴 USDJPY has climbed to its highest levels since January, prompting Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to signal readiness for action. Authorities are closely monitoring currency markets and may step in if volatility intensifies.

🥇 Gold is also feeling the pressure. Despite geopolitical support, rising US yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on the precious metal as it struggles to hold above $5,300 per ounce.

📊 With inflation risks resurfacing, rate cut expectations shifting, and geopolitical tensions rising, the key question is whether this marks the beginning of a renewed dollar supercycle.

📍 With confidence fading and portfolio allocations shrinking, Bitcoin risks a move toward $50,000, with downside pressure still building.

📅 The key question now: Is this just another shakeout, or is Bitcoin entering a deeper structural reset?

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EUR50 Index Wave Analysis – 3 March 2026

EUR50 Index: ⬇️ Sell

- EUR50 Index broke support zone

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Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis – 3 March 2026

Brent Crude Oil: ⬆️ Buy

- Brent Crude Oil broke key resistance levels

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Exxon Mobil Wave Analysis – 3 March 2026

Exxon Mobil: ⬇️ Sell

- Exxon Mobil reversed from resistance zone

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