The dollar restores confidence by force

The dollar follows successes on the international stage.

Europe risks facing stagflation.

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⚠️ USA — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 11K

🕒 Exp: 50K

🎯 Fact.: 63K 📈

Brent becomes a target

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz push Brent toward higher targets as supply risks intensify.

Oil may rise toward $100, but strong reserves and US shale output reduce recession risks.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly positive 📈

Large technology companies are trading in positive territory, while energy and certain defensive sectors appear weaker.

In the financial sector, Bank of America (BAC) shares are up +0.42%, and Goldman Sachs (GS) shares are up +0.81%.

In the technology services sector, Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up +0.29%, while Meta Platforms (META) shares are up +0.54%.

In the Energy Minerals sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are down -1.14%, while Chevron (CVX) shares are down -1.21%.

The current dynamics indicate a return to risk-on mode: demand is shifting towards risky assets within the US, which suppress interest in the dollar as a safe-haven. The short-term dynamics of the dollar looks rather neutral, with the possibility of a slight weakening against high-yield and commodity currencies.

⚠️ USA — ISM Services PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 53.8

🕒 Exp: 53.5

🎯 Fact.: 56.1 📈

⚠️ Canada — BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks at 15:30 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/05 (GMT)

09:30 🇬🇧 Construction PMI — Exp: 47.0 Actual: 44.5

12:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 215K Actual: 213K

13:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1850K Actual: 1868K

17:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

USDCHF Wave Analysis – 4 March 2026

- USDCHF reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5765

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Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 4 March 2026

- USDCHF reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 25455.00

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Crypto: An encouraging rebound in a bear market

The crypto market cap rose 4.8% to $2.45 trillion, then climbed to $2.50 trillion at the end of the day on Wednesday, a four-week high. This is a strong indication of a base forming and a reversal to growth. The capitalisation level is approaching the 50-day moving average, below which it has been steadily trading since the end of January. Consolidation above this line could be an additional signal of a reversal to growth.

On the other hand, this may be just a corrective rebound, as the typical Fibonacci correction range suggests a rebound to £2.53T for the decline since January and to £2.92T as part of a technical recovery from the entire decline since the October peak. Thus, despite the encouraging momentum, this may be nothing more than a rebound in a bear market.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 213K

🕒 Exp: 215K

🎯 Fact.: 213K 📈

The dollar is rising again on renewed inflation fears

Rumours of talks between Iran and the US sent the dollar lower, but not for long.

The strength of the Australian economy did not help AUDUSD.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market: Mostly negative 📉

Most of the largest companies by capitalisation are trading in the red, setting a general market ‘risk-off’ tone.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are down -0.70%, while Broadcom (AVGO) shares are up +4.83%.

In the Finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up +1.13%, while Bank of America (BAC) shares are down -0.60%.

In the Retail Trade sector, Amazon (AMZN) shares are down -0.74%, while Walmart (WMT) shares are down -1.22%.

The dominance of declines in the most liquid technology and consumer companies indicates a flight from risk within the US and a shift in demand towards safe-haven dollar assets and Treasury bonds. In the absence of a noticeable outflow of capital from the US, this structure indicates short-term potential for a moderate strengthening of the dollar, while no large-scale pressure on the currency is yet apparent.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/03/06 (GMT)

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 58K Actual: -92K

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.4%

13:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.7% Actual: 0.4% | 3.8%

13:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 65K Actual: -86K

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: -0.3% | 0.1% Actual: -0.2% | 0.0%

15:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 56.6 | 56.3


[Updated in real time]

Microsoft Wave Analysis – 5 March 2026

- Microsoft broke daily down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 420.00

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Alibaba Wave Analysis – 5 March 2026

- Alibaba broke daily down channel

- Likely to fall to support level 125.00

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Ethereum held above the long-term uptrend

The crypto market cap has fallen by approximately 2% over the past 24 hours to $2.41 trillion. The market is cooling after a mid-week surge, consistent with the trend of large capital selling on the growth. The price jump is generating impressive speculative interest, allowing large players to carefully sell larger volumes over a long period without putting excessive pressure on the price.

Bitcoin is cautiously retreating for the second day to $70.5K, having encountered resistance and exhausted its growth momentum from the liquidation of short positions a couple of days ago. Short-term obstacles to growth are the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% level of the decline from 14 January to 6 February. Bears are proving that they are in control, keeping Bitcoin within the correction range. In such conditions, there is a higher chance of movement towards the lower end of the range, which can be called typical behaviour for the end of the week in recent months.

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⚠️ USA — Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 126K

🕒 Exp: 58K

🎯 Fact.: -92K 📉

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.3%

🕒 Exp: 4.3%

🎯 Fact.: 4.4% 📉

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⚠️ USA — Retail Sales at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.0% | 0.0%

🕒 Exp: -0.3% | 0.1%

🎯 Fact.: -0.2% 📈 | 0.0% 📉