Oil continues to face a blockade

The US has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and is demanding that Iran sign an agreement.

The narrowing of the spread between the spot and futures markets is a positive sign, but it is not enough.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

On the day of the Fed's interest rate decision, the US stock market pre-market is seeing a moderately negative trend, with major technology and consumer companies mostly trading lower, while gains by individual names are not altering the overall downward bias.

In the Financials sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.28%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.33%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.04%, Apple (AAPL) is down 1.00%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.53%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down 0.36%.

The predominance of declines among the most highly capitalised stocks points to risk-off sentiment within the US market ahead of the Fed meeting. Amid uncertainty over the rate decision, investors are taking profits and rotating into safe-haven assets. This is providing moderate support for the dollar: demand is shifting toward safe-haven dollar assets on expectations around Fed monetary policy, limiting the likelihood of USD weakness in the near term and potentially triggering a short-term strengthening move following the decision.

⚠️ Canada — Overnight Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.25%

🕒 Exp: 2.25%

🎯 Fact.: 2.25%

———

⚠️ Canada — BOC Press Conference at 14:30 GMT

AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 29 April 2026

- AUDUSD reversed from key resistance level 0.7190

- Likely to fall to support level 0.7100

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USDJPY Wave Analysis – 29 April 2026

- USDJPY from the support zone

- Likely to test resistance levels 160.40 and 161.00

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NOKIA Wave Analysis – 29 April 2026

- NOKIA broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 12.50

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Starbucks Wave Analysis – 29 April 2026

- Starbucks broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 110.00

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.75%

🕒 Exp: 3.75%

🎯 Fact.: 3.75%

———

⚠️ USA — FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/04/30 (GMT)

01:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.1 Actual: 50.3

01:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.9 Actual: 49.4

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 52.2

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 4K Actual: 20K

07:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.3% Actual: 6.4%

08:00 🇩🇪 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.1% | 0.2% Actual: 0.3% | 0.3%

09:00 🇪🇺 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.2% | 0.9% Actual: 0.1% | 0.8%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 3.0% Actual: 3.0%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.2% Actual: 2.2%

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 3.75% Actual: 3.75%

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 1-0-8 Actual: 1-0-8

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Monetary Policy Report

12:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 2.15% Actual: 2.15%

12:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate — Exp: 2.00% Actual: 2.00%

12:15 🇪🇺 Marginal lending facility — Exp: 2.40% Actual: 2.40%

12:15 🇪🇺 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 215K Actual: 189K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 2.3% Actual: 2.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index — Exp: 3.8% Actual: 3.6%

12:30 🇺🇸 Employment Cost Index — Exp: 0.8% Actual: 0.9%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.3% | 3.2% Actual: 0.3% | 3.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.9% Actual: 0.9%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.2% | 1.0% Actual: 0.2% | 1.0%

12:45 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB Press Conference


[Updated in real time]

The crypto market is falling, but Doge is on the rise

The crypto market cap has fallen by 1.09% over the past 24 hours to $2.53 trillion. This marks the third consecutive day of a gradual market decline, which appears to be a technical shake-out rather than a trend reversal. Dogecoin (+3.3%) is once again leading the gains, along with Tron (+0.6%) and Aptos (+0.1%). Among the underperformers are Aave (−5.7%), Trumpcoin (−5.3%) and The Graph (−5.3%).

Bitcoin is leading the decline in cryptocurrencies, having switched to a sell-on-rally mode over the last three days. This is clearly visible in the intraday pattern of recent days, where a gradual rise has given way to a decline at roughly the same pace. If we view the latest move as a technical correction, its potential target appears to be the area around $74K, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line lies. The March peak levels also lie here, reinforcing the significance of this level.

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The dollar welcomes Powell’s decision to stay on the FOMC

The Fed is more likely to raise rates than to cut them.

The market prices 2–3 hikes from the ECB and the BoE this year.

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⚠️ UK — Bank of England Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.75%

🕒 Exp: 3.75%

🎯 Fact.: 3.75%

———

⚠️ UK — MPC Official Bank Rate Votes at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0-0-9

🕒 Exp: 1-0-8

🎯 Fact.: 1-0-8

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⚠️ EU — ECB Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.15%

🕒 Exp: 2.15%

🎯 Fact.: 2.15%

———

⚠️ USA — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.5%

🕒 Exp: 2.3%

🎯 Fact.: 2.0% 📉

———

⚠️ USA — Core PCE Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.4% | 3.0%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 3.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% | 3.2%

———

⚠️ Canada — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.1% | 0.6%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 1.0%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% | 1.0%

⚠️ EU — ECB Press Conference at 12:45 GMT

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

The US stock market is seeing mixed trading in the pre-market, with a slight upward bias among the largest companies, particularly in the technology and retail sectors.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 0.57%, Intel (INTC) is up 2.02%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.91%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 7.14%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.39%, while Morgan Stanley (MS) is down 0.81%.

With stocks showing positive momentum — led by GOOGL and NVDA — dominating among the largest names by market cap, the pre-market reflects a cautious risk-on stance: interest in growth stocks remains, but is not universal. For the dollar, this implies a neutral backdrop: demand for safe-haven dollar assets is limited, but there is no clear sign of capital outflow from the US. In the near term, the dollar is likely to remain range-bound without pronounced momentum in either direction, reacting primarily to macroeconomic data.

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/05/01 (GMT)

13:30 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Actual: 53.3

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 53.1 Actual: 52.7


[Updated in real time]