▶️ Oil. Rise

Today is Thursday, the 16th of July, and let's talk about the oil market.

There's been a change in the scenario, a shift to an alternative one.

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⚠️ USA — President Donald Trump Speaks at 01:00 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/18 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1400K Actual: 1367K | -3.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1310K Actual: 1427K | 19.0%

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.2% Actual: 0.1%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 54.4


[Updated in real time]

A false bullish breakout for Bitcoin?

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 2.7% to $2.16T amid growing nervousness in traditional financial markets, where concerns over AI spending have intensified. The crypto market has returned to the levels seen at the start of the week, while the Nasdaq 100 is testing the region of its June lows. Furthermore, the crypto market capitalisation is trading near its 50-day moving average as the Nasdaq 100 is being sold off with alarming determination after dipping below it. At present, the situation appears to be a short-term sign of strength for cryptocurrencies following several months of pressure; however, sustained declines in shares and bonds have repeatedly forced investors to rebalance their portfolios, leading to painful selloffs in cryptocurrencies. Among the top coins, the biggest fallers include Zcash (-6.4%), Near Protocol (-5.3%) and Tezos (-5%). Polkadot (+1.1%), Litecoin (-0.2%) and Bitcoin Cash (-0.8%) are temporarily outperforming the market.

Bitcoin has lost 2.9% over the past 24 hours, falling back to $62.8K. Due to external pressure, the leading cryptocurrency has failed to confirm a reversal of the downtrend, as higher highs were not formed, and the price quickly fell back below the 50-day MA, returning to the downtrend channel in place since June. The lower boundary of this range is currently near $56K, but support should also be expected near $61K and $59K, at previous local lows.

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The dollar: don’t bet against the US

The US economy is strong and outperforming its rivals.

USDJPY could reach 170, as FX interventions are not a concern.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Negative 📉

The US stock market is showing a downward trend in pre-market trading.

In the Consumer Staples sector, Walmart (WMT) is up 1.85%, while in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Amazon (AMZN) is down 1.52%.

In the Financials sector, Visa (V) is up 0.48%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.45%.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 2.51%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down 3.99%.

The prevailing decline among the largest companies by market cap points to a clear flight from risk within the US market. In this environment, short-term support for the dollar is emerging through rising demand for safe-haven dollar assets and capital flows into Treasuries.

▶️ Pro News Weekly: Has the Dollar Lost Its Edge?

Welcome to Pro News Weekly!

💵 The U.S. dollar has come under renewed pressure as easing inflation and producer price data reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as previously feared. With oil prices retreating from recent highs and geopolitical concerns fading, investors are scaling back expectations for additional rate hikes, weighing on the greenback.

📊 Stock indices have continued their upward momentum as markets look beyond recent geopolitical tensions and focus on improving inflation trends and the start of second-quarter earnings season. Strong results from major U.S. banks have boosted confidence, while weakness in parts of the technology sector is encouraging investors to rotate into other areas of the market.

🪙 Gold remains under pressure as expectations for tighter monetary policy across major central banks reduce demand for the precious metal. Concerns that rising oil prices could prompt some central banks to support their currencies by selling reserves have further weakened gold's safe-haven appeal despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

₿ Bitcoin has regained momentum as expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade. The recovery has also been supported by nearly $200 million of fresh ETF inflows following weeks of heavy outflows, helping improve sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market.

📊 With the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, UK employment, inflation and retail sales data, plus global PMI figures all due next week, will fresh economic data determine the next move for currencies, commodities and stock markets?

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USDCAD Wave Analysis – 17 July 2026

- USDCAD broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.3550

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Apple Wave Analysis – 17 July 2026

- Apple broke pivotal resistance level 317.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 340.00

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Morgan Stanley Wave Analysis – 17 July 2026

Morgan Stanley: ⬆️ Buy

- Morgan Stanley reversed from support level 206.50

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Pfizer Wave Analysis – 17 July 2026

- Pfizer reversed from resistance level 25.35

- Likely to fall to support level 24.50

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/20 (GMT)

22:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: 250M Actual: 23M | -3746M


[Updated in real time]

▶️ FxPro: What’s Moving Markets Next Week

Stay informed with FxPro’s weekly update and stay ahead of what’s shaping the markets.

Markets are heading into another important week of economic data, with inflation, central bank policy and business activity all set to influence expectations for interest rates and the outlook for the European economy. 🌍

Wednesday begins with the latest UK Consumer Price Index report. The previous year-on-year inflation reading came in at 2.8% and investors will be watching closely to see whether price pressures continue to build, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s next policy decision. 🇬🇧

Attention then shifts to the Eurozone on Thursday, where the European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate decision. The benchmark rate currently stands at 2.40%, with policymakers balancing persistent inflation against slowing economic growth. Markets will be looking for fresh guidance on the future path of monetary policy. 🇪🇺

Friday wraps up the week with the latest Flash PMI reports from across Europe. Services activity in France and Germany has remained below the key 50 level, while the UK’s previous reading stood at 48.8, signalling continued contraction. The data will offer valuable insight into the health of the region’s economy and business activity. 📊

With inflation, central bank policy and economic growth all in focus, currencies, indices and commodities could see increased volatility throughout the week. 👀

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/21 (GMT)

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: -0.2% | 2.9% Actual: -0.4% | 2.8%

12:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI Actual: 0.1% | 2.1%

12:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.5% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 2.0% Actual: 1.8%

12:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 2.1% Actual: 1.9%

22:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 1.4% | 4.0% Actual: 1.5% | 4.1%

06:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 28.3K

06:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.9%

06:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 4.5% | 3.4%


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin is struggling against a glass ceiling at $65K

The crypto market remains relatively stable around the $2.20T mark. This is a respectable performance, particularly given the weakness in key stock indices and the downward trend in gold. Market capitalisation is hovering around its 50-day moving average, reflecting the ongoing struggle to shift the trend to a bullish one. Top-tier coins are falling, with Solana, Chainlink and SushiSwap showing the best performance over the last 24 hours by holding their prices steady. The sharpest declines were seen in Zcash (-5.3%), Filecoin (-4.6%) and OfficialTrump (-1.6%).

The sentiment index has risen to 29, continuing to climb within the 'fear' zone and reaching a new local high not seen since late May. We would remind readers, however, that a return to neutral territory is normal for this index, and it is premature to speak of the end of the bear market until the index has firmly established itself above 50.

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Forex: the dollar’s rivals are not resting on their laurels

The euro is awaiting signals from the ECB regarding a rate rise.

The pound will be looking for clues in the macroeconomic data.

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⚠️ Canada — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.0% | 3.2%

🕒 Exp: -0.2% | 2.9%

🎯 Fact.: -0.4% 📉 | 2.8% 📉