Oil: a surplus on the horizon

The de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has sent Brent prices tumbling.

The oil market could return to a surplus as early as the end of 2026.

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Bitcoin has failed to break away from its long-term trend

The crypto market trended lower at the end of Monday, mirroring the US equity market, as it fell from a peak of $2.23T to $2.16T before returning to recent local lows of $2.18T by Tuesday morning. This marks yet another test of the 50-day moving average (MA) as support, which sellers have been testing over the past couple of weeks. Among the top coins, losses ranged from -1.4% for Bitcoin Cash and -1.5% for BNB to -8.8% for Near and -8% for Basic Attention Token.

Bitcoin closed higher on Monday despite significant afternoon selling pressure. On Tuesday, the sell-off ahead of the start of Asian trading showed that bears remain in control, driving the price down from $65K to $63K, with a slight rebound to $63.4K. Consequently, the leading cryptocurrency is failing to break above the 200-week moving average, which the market had traded above for the previous three weeks. This is typical behaviour following a dip below this important long-term moving average, as the market is saturated with negativity in the lead-up to this level. It will likely take a few more weeks of stability or positive momentum to draw the wider public into the market.

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▶️ AUDUSD. Downside Outlook

Today is Tuesday, the 28th of July, and let’s talk about the Australian dollar, which we haven’t looked at for quite some time.

The overall picture remains largely unchanged. Essentially, we saw a fairly significant market rally throughout 2025 and part of 2026, and now a major downward correction is taking shape

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mostly Positive 📈

Positive trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Information Technology sector, Apple (AAPL) is up 0.73%, while NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 0.26%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 0.62%, while Bank of America (BAC) is down 0.48%.

In the Consumer Staples sector, Procter & Gamble (PG) is up 2.10%, while PepsiCo (PEP) is up 1.87%.

From a foreign exchange perspective, the current picture is consistent with a risk-on environment: rising share prices among major technology and consumer companies are supporting demand for risk assets. At the same time, interest in the dollar as a safe-haven currency remains subdued. This creates a neutral-to-moderate backdrop for the dollar: the dollar index may remain stable or undergo a slight correction, with no clear momentum toward appreciation, absent any shift in Fed policy expectations.

▶️ Pro News Flash: Markets Brace for a Fed Decision

💵 The US dollar is holding steady despite rising Treasury yields as stronger oil prices fuel concerns that inflation could accelerate again. Expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have increased sharply, but strength in the euro, pound and Japanese yen is preventing the dollar from making a decisive move.

📊 US stock indices continue to trade near record highs as investors focus on second-quarter earnings rather than geopolitical tensions or the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Wall Street expects one of the strongest earnings seasons in years, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors forecast to report profit growth.

🪙 Gold remains under pressure as rising bond yields, a resilient US dollar and expectations of higher interest rates reduce demand for the precious metal. Although gold recently bounced from key support, analysts believe the rally could prove short-lived if central banks remain committed to fighting inflation.

₿ Bitcoin has struggled to extend its recent recovery as investors rotate back into major technology stocks ahead of earnings season. However, bullish forecasts for Strategy and continued confidence in crypto ETFs suggest institutional optimism toward Bitcoin remains intact.

⚠️ With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching alongside key US GDP, European inflation and central bank decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, investors are preparing for another potentially volatile week across currencies, commodities, cryptocurrencies and global stock markets.

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WTI Crude Oil Wave Analysis – 28 July 2026

WTI Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

- WTI Crude Oil reversed from resistance area

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Chainlink Wave Analysis – 28 July 2026

- Chainlink reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 75.00

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FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 28 July 2026

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 broke resistance area

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Ebay Wave Analysis – 28 July 2026

- Ebay reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 118.30,

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⚠️ Australia — Consumer Prices Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.7% | 4.0%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 4.0%

🎯 Fact.: -0.1% 📉 | 3.8% 📉

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⚠️ Australia — Quarterly Consumer Prices Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 1.4% | 4.1%

🕒 Exp: 0.7% | 4.1%

🎯 Fact.: 0.6% 📉 | 3.9% 📉

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/07/30 (GMT)

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 700K Actual: -7167K

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 3.75% Actual: 3.75%

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

18:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference


[Updated in real time]

Crypto holds firm despite tech sell-off

On Tuesday, the crypto market capitalisation fell towards $2.14T, a level at which it has repeatedly found support over the past three weeks. This time was no exception, leaving the market above its 50-day moving average – a significant sign of buyer strength, indicating a local shift in priorities. Since the beginning of the year, interest has shifted from cryptocurrencies to AI stocks. Despite the Nasdaq-100 entering a technical correction, with a more than 10% decline from its peak, cryptocurrencies have remained resilient. The top performers among the most popular coins over the past 24 hours were Cardano (+4.8%), Uniswap (+3.1%), and XRP (+3%). The worst performers were Immutable (-5.3%), Official Trump (-4.6%) and Theta Network (-3.7%).

Bitcoin, as was the case a week earlier, dipped below $63K before attracting a fresh influx of buyers, recovering to $64.3K. Although the current support level is lower than it was in February–April, overall, market forces are on the bulls’ side in this area. Judging by the price action, the market is being swept up by large long-term investors who have not yet fulfilled their plans and are not overly concerned about the sell-off in the semiconductor sector. It is even possible that this profit-taking is contributing to capital inflows. However, if and when the sell-off in equities turns into a broad flight from risk, cryptocurrencies will struggle to hold their ground. The risk is that this shift could be driven by fundamental factors, starting with today’s decision and commentary on the Fed’s key interest rate.

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Gold: The Fed will lead the way!

Markets are awaiting the Fed’s decision on interest rates.

Gold’s reaction will depend on the Fed’s rhetoric and the number of dissenting votes.

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🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

Ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision, mixed trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Information Technology sector, Apple (AAPL) is down 0.24%, Intel (INTC) is up 0.68%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.32%.

In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 0.76%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 2.33%, while Chevron (CVX) is up 2.17%.

Given the support from the largest technology and energy companies by market cap, the market appears to be in moderate risk-on mode: interest in leading equities is curbing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating a neutral-to-stable short-term backdrop for the dollar.

⚠️ USA — FOMC Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 3.75%

🕒 Exp: 3.75%

🎯 Fact.: 3.75%

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⚠️ USA — FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 GMT

FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 29 July 2026

FTSE 100: ⬇️ Sell

- FTSE 100 reversed from resistance area

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MasterCard Wave Analysis – 29 July 2026

- MasterCard broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 580.00

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