BNB’s rise points to a recovery in crypto, despite the cloud hanging over BTC

The crypto market capitalisation has remained virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours, hovering around $2.18T. Trading activity in crypto and equity markets is currently at its lowest due to the holiday season. This period also often lays the groundwork for trends in the coming quarters, as market participants reassess the situation ahead of the end of the US financial year in September.

Bitcoin retreated to $63.3K late on Tuesday, where it found support at the 50-day moving average. The leading cryptocurrency has been unable to break away from this medium-term trend line, although the price has remained predominantly above it for almost a month. This line itself is almost horizontal, underscoring the market’s neutral sentiment. Fundamentally, the leading cryptocurrency’s growth is being hampered by a wave of selling from institutional investors, who are actively selling bitcoins to finance their transition to AI.

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Gold as a sure-fire bet

Whatever the inflation figures may be, the precious metal will come out on top.

Japan and the US don’t want to give the yen’s fate to speculators.

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⚠️ USA — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.4% | 3.5%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | 3.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.1% | 3.4%

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⚠️ USA — Core CPI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.0% | 2.6%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 2.5%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% | 2.5%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Moderately Positive 📈
Following the inflation figures, the US stock market is showing a moderately positive trend in pre-market trading.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.43%, while Broadcom (AVGO) is up 2.05%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 0.09%, while Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is down 0.18%.

In the Industrials sector, Applied Materials (AMAT) is up 4.62%, while Caterpillar (CAT) is up 2.33%.

The predominance of gains among the largest companies by market cap points to a risk-on environment, supporting demand for risk assets, while the dollar maintains a largely neutral trend: interest in safe-haven dollar instruments is limited, and the direction of the exchange rate will largely depend on Fed rate expectations.

GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 12 August 2026

– GBPUSD reversed from resistance level 1.3555

– Likely to fall to support level 1.3450

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Dogecoin Wave Analysis – 12 August 2026

– Dogecoin reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 0.0675

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Cardano Wave Analysis – 12 August 2026

– Cardano reversed from resistance level 0.195

– Likely to fall to support level 0.155

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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 12 August 2026

Nikkei 225: ⬆️ Buy

– Nikkei 225 broke daily down channel

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/08/14 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Producer Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 4.9% Actual: 0.0% | 4.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PPI — Exp: 0.3% | 4.2% Actual: 0.2% | 4.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims — Exp: 202K Actual: 209K


[Updated in real time]

⚠️ UK — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.0% | 0.6%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 0.4%

🎯 Fact.: 0.3% 📈 | 0.4%

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⚠️ UK — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.6% | 0.9%

🕒 Exp: 0.4% | 1.1%

🎯 Fact.: 0.6% 📈 | 1.2% 📈

Bitcoin: Will patience be rewarded?

The crypto market capitalisation has once again shown little change, remaining around the $2.19T ‘centre of gravity’ for the third day running, fluctuating between $2.18T and $2.20T. This marks the continuation of a protracted sideways trend that has been ongoing since early June. As traders become accustomed to a range, they tend to tighten their stop losses and increase their leverage. It is also not uncommon for the market to be pushed down during what is known as ‘final capitulation’. However, towards the end of a range-bound period, large volumes often emerge as major long-term players gradually build positions around a particular market view. In this case, they may be anticipating the passage of cryptocurrency legislation later this autumn, following the congressional recess. Our medium-term optimism does not, however, rule out the risk of a sharp pullback in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin is struggling to break away from its support level and has been hovering around $64K for the third day in a row, trading slightly below it on Thursday morning but above the 50-day moving average. The peaks of the 2021 bull market were close to these levels. Three years ago, Bitcoin’s decline generally halted at $20K, which was close to the peak of the previous bull market at the end of 2017. This supports our view that the decline may have run its course, with bearish momentum fading as Bitcoin approaches the 200-week moving average. While speculators may still be looking for a better entry price, long-term investors are steadily accumulating at current levels, as evidenced by the remarkable price stability despite fairly active price movements in other markets. At the end of 2022, the market fell nearly 25% below $20K before reversing higher, effectively offering a ‘discount’ to investors willing to take the risk. We could see something similar this time, but it would be unwise to rely on such a pullback.

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The yen needs a helping hand

The US dollar has prioritised geopolitics over inflation.

Only the BoJ has the power to halt USDJPY gains.

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⚠️ USA — Producer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.1% | 5.5%

🕒 Exp: 0.2% | 4.9%

🎯 Fact.: 0.0% 📉 | 4.7% 📉

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⚠️ USA — Core PPI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.4% | 4.7%

🕒 Exp: 0.3% | 4.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% 📉 | 4.2%

🇺🇸 US Pre-Market: Mixed 📊

Mixed, but broadly positive, trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.
In the Information Technology sector, Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.42%, while Oracle (ORCL) is down 0.44%.

In the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 0.72%, while Morgan Stanley (MS) is up 1.02%.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, Tesla (TSLA) is down 0.71%, while in the Consumer Staples sector, Walmart (WMT) is up 0.25%.
A moderate risk-on sentiment within the US is driving the upward trend in mega-cap shares. Demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset is limited: the short-term USD trend remains largely neutral with no clear momentum toward appreciation, while interest in US equities and Treasuries as core assets persists.

▶️ Oil. Current situation

Today is Thursday, the 13th of August, and we'll discuss the oil market, what's happening there and what to expect by the start of autumn. So, I'd like to remind you that over the last 18 years, oil has formed this massive triangle, and we are, essentially, at the starting point. Here we have Waves 1 and 2, pointing towards global growth

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Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 13 August 2026

– Nasdaq-100 broke daily down channel

– Likely to rise to resistance level 30770.00

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NVIDIA Wave Analysis – 13 August 2026

– NVIDIA broke resistance level 225.00

– Likely to rise to resistance level 235.00

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⚠️ Australia — RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks at 23:30 GMT

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2026/08/15 (GMT)

09:00 🇪🇺 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% | 1.0% Actual: 0.4% | 1.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 0.1% | 0.2% Actual: -0.6% | -0.3%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 54.5 Actual: 51.0


[Updated in real time]