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▢️ Pro News Weekly: Markets Brace for a Fed Rate Hike

Welcome to Pro News Weekly!

πŸ’΅ The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as Treasury yields rise and the ECB, BoJ and BoE take a more hawkish stance, while concerns over inflation and global portfolio diversification add further pressure.

πŸ“ˆ The S&P 500 faces growing headwinds from the end of earnings season, rising Brent prices, inflation fears and expectations for Fed rate hikes. With 86% of earnings beating estimates and 2026 earnings growth expectations rising to 32%, markets may need a new catalyst.

πŸͺ™ Gold remains caught between a weaker dollar, which supports the precious metal, and rising Treasury yields, which make interest-bearing assets more attractive. Investors are also watching geopolitical, fiscal and inflation risks, alongside continued gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China.

β‚Ώ Bitcoin faces similar pressure as higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding crypto and could drive ETF outflows. Meanwhile, the $320 million Liquid Network theft may push investors toward ETFs as a more reliable alternative to crypto wallets.

πŸ“Š Next week, all eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed's rate decision. Kevin Warsh faces a difficult choice between backing a rate hike or becoming the first dissenting Fed chair in the central bank's history, while markets will also watch for hawkish signals from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

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▢️ FxPro: What’s Moving Markets Next Week

Stay informed with FxPro’s weekly update and stay ahead of what’s shaping the markets.

Next week is all about central banks. 🏦🌍

Wednesday brings the Fed rate decision. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a hike, making it one of the most consequential decisions of the year. The dot plot could reveal just how much further policymakers are willing to go. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ“Š

Then Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates, despite three members voting for a hike at the previous meeting. πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ¦

Friday brings the Bank of Japan, with a rate hike to 1.25% expected. But the bigger question is what comes next. Are two more hikes on the way? πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅πŸ“ˆ

Three major central bank decisions in one week could set the tone for currencies and markets. πŸŒπŸ‘€

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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/15 (GMT)

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ ⚑️ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: 0.0% | 3.0% Actual: -0.1% | 3.0%

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Core CPI β€” Exp: 0.2% Actual: 0.1% | 2.4%

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Common Core CPI β€” Exp: 2.7% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Trimmed Core CPI β€” Exp: 1.9% Actual: 1.9%

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Median Core CPI β€” Exp: 2.0% Actual: 2.0%

15:15 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

02:00 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Fixed Asset Investment β€” Exp: -7.0% Actual: -7.2%

02:00 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Industrial Production β€” Exp: 4.8% Actual: 5.2% | 5.3%

02:00 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ NBS Press Conference

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Claimant Count Change β€” Exp: 8.3K

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 4.9%

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Average Earnings Index β€” Exp: 3.9% | 3.5%


[Updated in real time]
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/15 (GMT) 12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ ⚑️ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: 0.0% | 3.0% Actual: -0.1% | 3.0% 12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Core CPI β€” Exp: 0.2% Actual: 0.1% | 2.4% 12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Common Core CPI β€” Exp: 2.7% Actual: 2.6% 12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Trimmed Core CPI —…»
The crypto market is unfazed by the impending Fed rate hike

The crypto market capitalisation, standing at $2.65T at the start of the week, has remained relatively stable over the last four days and is 2.2% below last week’s opening figures. For more than three weeks now, the market has been fluctuating mainly within the $2.60–2.72T range, having rebounded from the lower end of the range at the end of last week. The topic most widely discussed in the media, the impending rise in the Fed’s key interest rate, has proved unable to throw the market off balance, despite the growth momentum seen just under a month ago. Beneath the general lull in the market lie some fairly significant movements. Over the past 24 hours, the top gainers have been Filecoin (+22%), Algorand (+4.6%) and Near Protocol (+4.4%). The top three decliners among the most liquid coins are Dash (βˆ’2.5%), Immutable (βˆ’1.5%) and Cosmos (βˆ’0.9%).

Bitcoin received solid support from buyers at the end of the week, holding above $76K, and has gained nearly $1K since Monday morning, reaching $77.6K. The leading cryptocurrency is pulling back from the lower boundary of its consolidation range. From a technical perspective, a rise up to the region around $80K is unlikely to face significant resistance. However, the bulls may face a tough road ahead, given the headwinds posed by the market’s reassessment of monetary policy prospects, which are becoming more hawkish. On the other hand, the prolonged lull has alleviated short-term overbought conditions, as evidenced by the RSI on daily charts falling back towards the neutral 50 level.

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⚠️ Canada β€” Consumer Price Index at 12:30 GMT

βœ”οΈ Prev: 0.5% | 3.0%

πŸ•’ Exp: 0.0% | 3.0%

🎯 Fact.: -0.1% πŸ“‰ | 3.0%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Pre-Market: Mostly Positive πŸ“ˆ

Positive trends are prevailing in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Information Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 2.55%, Apple (AAPL) is up 0.05%, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.62%.
In the Communication Services sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 1.02%.

In the Energy sector, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 1.81%, while Chevron (CVX) is up 1.72%.

The prevalence of risk-on sentiment, driven by gains in major technology and energy companies, is supporting demand for risk assets while limiting interest in the dollar as a safe haven.

The short-term USD trend remains subdued, largely dependent on the interest rate differential and external capital flows rather than domestic demand for safe-haven dollar instruments.
The S&P 500 defies uncertainty

Higher chances for a Fed rate hike have worked in the stock market’s favour.

ETFs’ capital outflows signal a loss of interest in the S&P 500.

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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/16 (GMT)

09:00 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ZEW Economic Sentiment β€” Exp: 37.0 Actual: 34.7

09:00 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ZEW Survey (Current Situation) β€” Exp: -52.2 Actual: -47.1

09:00 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ZEW Economic Sentiment β€” Exp: 39.9 Actual: 25.8

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Empire State Manufacturing Index β€” Exp: 14.8 Actual: 7.6

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ ⚑️ Consumer Price Index β€” Exp: 0.5% | 3.1%

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Core CPI β€” Exp: 2.6%

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Retail Price Index β€” Exp: | 3.5%

06:00 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Producer Price Index Input β€” Exp: 0.4% | 5.4%


[Updated in real time]
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2026/09/16 (GMT) 09:00 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ZEW Economic Sentiment β€” Exp: 37.0 Actual: 34.7 09:00 πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ZEW Survey (Current Situation) β€” Exp: -52.2 Actual: -47.1 09:00 πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ZEW Economic Sentiment β€” Exp: 39.9 Actual: 25.8 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Empire State…»
Crypto: No breakthrough without CLARITY

The crypto market rose to $2.71T, touching the highs seen in the second half of last week, but retreated fairly quickly to a comfortable $2.65T. The volatility can be linked to news headlines about the CLARITY Act and its rapid progress, while the pullback can be attributed to a return to the status quo after the Democrats tabled a 'counterproposal' just a few hours before the final vote. This act should clarify the future of crypto in the US; without it, it remains in the fog. Prediction markets put the chances of the bill passing by the end of the year at 19%, roughly the same as last week, after a spike to 34% on Monday. It appears the market is getting used to life without this legislation, though this has not prevented trading at levels seen in May, when the chances of the bill passing by the end of the year exceeded 75%. Among the top cryptocurrencies, the past day has seen mixed performance, with declines predominating; the biggest gains were recorded by Uniswap (+5.6%), Stellar (+5.5%) and XRP (+1.6%), while the biggest losses were suffered by Filecoin (βˆ’10.7%), Internet Computer (βˆ’6.9%) and Tezos (βˆ’6.3%).

Bitcoin rose towards $79.6K at the end of the day on Monday, before coming under steady selling pressure, pushing the price back down to $77.4K and once again placing it at the lower boundary of its consolidation range. The leading cryptocurrency needs a significant catalyst to push the price out of this range; thereafter, the liquidation of margin positions could trigger further upward or downward movement. The longer the asset remains within the range, the higher the margin positions become, and the closer stop-loss orders move towards the price, triggering avalanche-like movements. In the current BTC market, a significant increase in volatility could occur if the price breaks below $75K or above $82K. Within this range, a margin of more than 9% provides sufficient scope for short-term trading, but movements here may still be subject to excessive noise.

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