👁Middle East may change beyond all recognition in just two years – British ex-diplomat

US and European business elites appear oblivious to the ongoing changes in the region, seeing no need to reconsider their long-term investment plans due to belief that, fundamentally, things remain the same, UK ex-diplomat Alastair Crooke remarked on Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast.

💬 “I don’t think that people actually see the prospect that we’re all going to see a massive change taking place in the Gulf,” he said, adding that the “Western position in the Gulf is going to be materially changed.”

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🇺🇸 Big threats, thin stockpiles: Pentagon’s most powerful bombs running out

As Donald Trump reportedly weighs the use of the GBU-43/B MOAB bomb, the 21,000-pound weapon nicknamed the "mother of all bombs," in a potential new round of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, the stockpile of the Pentagon's most powerful penetrating weapons is alarmingly thin.

The US may have only a low-single-digit number of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators left, an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates. The 30,000-pound bomb, designed to destroy deeply buried targets, was used 14 times against Iranian nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. The Pentagon has redirected $123 million toward replenishing the inventory, but new bombs will take years to arrive.

The "mother of all bombs" is even scarcer. The US built about a dozen of the GBU-43/B, one of which was used in 2017 against an Islamic State cave complex in Afghanistan. Around 10 should remain. But despite its size, the MOAB cannot penetrate as deeply as the GBU-57.

Meanwhile, Iran entrenches its high-value military facilities by burrowing further underground to put them beyond the reach of conventional weapons. Previous US attacks showed that even when targets were hit, the bombs inflicted very limited damage and the facilities kept operating.

🔴 CSIS highlights reports of 33 underground Iranian missile bases near the Strait of Hormuz, many of which have survived earlier American attacks or are being rapidly rebuilt at the moment

🔴 Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex near Natanz may be buried so deeply inside a granite mountain that even the GBU-57 could struggle to reach it

The US retains a large inventory of smaller 2,000-pound bunker busters, but inventory stress is greatest with the largest munitions. Current bunker busters are nearly all free-fall bombs, which require delivery aircraft to fly over the target — exposing the carrier aircraft to attack.

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🇦🇺 Australia to arm underwater drones with sea mines and aerial UAVs

Australia is developing new payloads for its autonomous naval drones, including sea mines and uncrewed aerial vehicles, Defense Minister Richard Marles and Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced.

Ghost Shark underwater drones will be able to carry a range of mission-specific payloads, including supply caches, sea mines and aerial drones.

👉 The upgrades will also extend to Speartooth and BlueBottle unmanned surface vessels.

The systems are designed for underwater combat, seabed operations, restricting enemy access to maritime areas and protecting critical undersea infrastructure.

Under its 2026 defense strategy, Australia plans to invest up to $4 billion over 10 years in autonomous and unmanned underwater warfare capabilities, including around $1.2 billion for a fleet of Ghost Shark vehicles.

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💣 Houthi attacks expose cracks in Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion-dollar defenses - report

Despite having one of the world's largest defense budgets and a hangar full of top-notch US fighters and air-defense systems, Saudi Arabia is still failing to stop Houthi missiles and drones from hammering its capital and oil facilities, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Here’s what’s being exposed by the Houthi strikes:

➡️ A shortage of interceptors is crippling Saudi air defenses

➡️ The US is providing intelligence only — no direct military help

➡️ Trump suggested taking Israeli assistance, but Saudi Arabia stayed silent

➡️ Now the kingdom is scrambling for support from Turkey, Pakistan, European countries and Egypt

The Houthis keep churning out their own missiles and drones, and hide production deep underground, while constantly repositioning their launchers. They readily absorb Saudi airstrikes and hit various soft targets deep inside the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia's sheer geographic size is its Achilles' heel. Oil facilities, civilian airports and other critical infrastructure lie scattered across vast desert expanses, offering Houthi missiles and drones a target-rich landscape of unguarded gaps.

As former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney put it, Riyadh will eventually need an off-ramp. The Houthis have already proven they can inflict serious damage through asymmetric warfare.

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🇮🇷 ‘Father of Iranian missiles’ to retaliate against any wrong move by enemy, IRGC adviser vows

💬 “In case of any miscalculation, all infrastructure platforms and energy investments belonging to the aggressors in the region will be within operational range, and their security will be directly jeopardized,” Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned.

He said that the “father of Iranian missiles” is already on heightened alert and if the enemy makes any misstep, “its attack is doomed to failure, and there will be no way out for them.”

Naqdi derided Trump’s recent remarks about running out of patience and promising tougher action against the Islamic Republic as an “open admission of defeat” against the Iranian people.

Trump also threatened to use the GBU-43/B, known as the “mother of all bombs,” against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

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🇷🇺🪖Ukraine’s air defenses fail to intercept a single Russian ballistic missile in overnight strikes
 
Russian Iskander-M missiles and S-400s repurposed for ground attack missions slipped through Ukraine’s defenses unmolested, with hits reported across 25 locations, and “debris” recorded at eight more, the Ukrainian Air Force’s official Telegram channel admitted.

The missiles were reportedly launched in combination with Iskander-K cruise missiles and 269 Geran-type strike UAVs (59 of them jet powered) as well as Banderol, Gerbera and other drones. The Air Force claims to have brought down 247 of the non-ballistic targets using aviation, AA troops, EW, unmanned systems and mobile fire groups.

But reporting, photos and videos from the ground tell a different story, with Russia hammering Ukraine’s energy grid, industrial infrastructure, ports, bridges, logistics, and military infrastructure for months on end, leaving entire sectors of the economy on the brink of collapse, and the war effort increasingly crippled.

On Monday, Ukrainian telecoms giant Datagroup announced a devastating Russian night strike on its main data center, saying “repairing it and resuming operations are impossible.”

Ukraine’s troubles have been compounded by its Patriot missile interceptors running dry, and by Elon Musk’s decision to slap speed restrictions on its Starlink connection – whose strategic impact has been compared to a ‘nuclear strike’ by local commanders.

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💥🗣 MOABs useless against Iran’s most hardened facilities - top Washington weapons wonk
 
One of Washington’s most senior institutional hawks grew visibly frustrated discussing US options for attacks on Iran’s mountainous hardened facilities, pointing out that even the GBU-43/B MOABs which President Trump has threatened to employ wouldn’t be enough to destroy a site like Pickaxe Mountain.

Speaking to Brandon Weichert, USMC Col. (ret.) and CSIS analyst Mark Cancian admitted that Iran and North Korea’s placement of their most sensitive sites under mountains limits US opportunities to inflict real damage.

🔊 “For Pickaxe Mountain, it’s not clear that even the largest – the ‘Mother of All Bombs’ will have an effect, although the president has said that that’s one of the options the Pentagon has come up with,” Cancian said.

After Weichert pointed out that the MOAB is an air-burst weapon, Cancian suggested it could be used in combination with smaller munitions to try to blow open the door to the facility, “with the idea that maybe [a huge explosion] would blow the door open.”

After that, you could drop another MAOB in, triggering a blast wave, or use a thermobaric munition that hopefully ignites inside, he said.

The problem is, stocks of these weapons are extremely scarce, with Cancian and a CSIS colleague pointed out in a recent report.

Iran, meanwhile, has threatened all-out retaliation in the event of new US attacks.

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 US no longer capable of another war with Iran, IRGC spokesman

🔊 The US no longer has the technical or military capability to launch another conflict but could attempt a limited strike to claim a political victory ahead of the US elections, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said.

He warned that Iran is prepared to respond to any new attack, stressing that its retaliation would be far more severe than before. He added that even a limited US strike would trigger a serious global energy crisis.

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🛰💵 Musk’s galactic giveaway: One Space X share for every American kid
 
Elon Musk has promised every American child a single SpaceX share in 2027—a giveaway that, with 72 million children in the US, could be worth $10.5 billion.

👉The pledge comes in the run-up to the November US midterm elections and follows two Trump initiatives: a promise to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress, and a plan to hand out $1,000 in investment funds to eligible children born between 2025 and 2028.

👉Musk's announcement also came hours after AI rival Anthropic pledged 5% of its shares to public benefit projects.

🤔Musk hasn't, however, explained how the giveaway would work.

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🚢🛢 Qatari LNG tanker transits Red Sea for Europe as gas prices hit four-year high

A carrier loaded with Qatari liquefied natural gas is sailing north through the Red Sea, signaling Poland as its destination — a rare transit through waters most commercial vessels now avoid, Bloomberg reports, referring to ship-tracking data.

👉 Earlier, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an unnamed LNG tanker was approached southeast of Al Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden by a skiff that fired two shots. The tanker's security team fired back, and ship-tracking data suggests the Poland-bound carrier continued its journey.

Commercial shipping has increasingly steered clear of the Red Sea altogether, with vessels opting instead for the long detour around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, a route that can stretch a one-way journey by almost two weeks and adds real costs in addition.

European natural gas prices are at their highest level in almost four years, while gas inventories sit at the lowest seasonal levels in over a decade, amid months of instability around the Strait of Hormuz. All this left Middle Eastern exporters desperately searching for alternative ways to keep gas moving to Europe as winter approaches.

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🇫🇷🔥 Macron tours Gulf states while France burns from protests

French President Emmanuel Macron is on a three-day official visit to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, accompanied by the heads of energy companies.

The official goal of the tour is to secure additional oil supplies from the Gulf states, easing energy prices for households and farmers who have been hit by a 30–50% rise in petrol and diesel costs. Supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have pushed up global oil prices, adding to growing frustration at home.

That frustration has already spilled into the streets. What began as student demonstrations over education conditions has grown into nationwide protests over soaring fuel prices and the cost of living, putting further pressure on Macron's government.

And this isn't the first time the French president has found himself elsewhere while protests rage. On October 17, as demonstrators clashed with police and acts of vandalism spread, Macron was spotted enjoying a Celine Dion concert with his wife.

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👁 I see you: Russian satellite hot on the trail of NATO orbital spy feeding info to Ukraine
 
OSINT trackers have spotted Russia’s Cosmos 2612 satellite approaching to within a few km of ICEYE-X36 (NORAD ID 59103) – a Finnish SAR satellite providing Earth observation data to the US government and military, other militaries, and defense contractors.

♦️ Swiss real-time space domain awareness tracker s2a systems calculates that the Russian spacecraft was just ~5km from ICEYE’s craft as they flew over South America on Sunday, perfectly matching its trajectory at speeds of ~27.3k km/h, 550 km above the planet.

♦️With the Russian craft matching ICEYE’s geometric plane, it may prove difficult, if not impossible, for the Finnish satellite to escape.

Russia hasn't disclosed much about Cosmos 2612 since launching it from Plesetsk in April, but Western observers suspect it's designed to approach other satellites, inspect them and gather intelligence.

❗️Getting this close opens up some interesting possibilities.

➡️ Positioned at close range, the satellite could glean vital electronic and operational data, intercept and analyze radio frequencies, signal patterns and telemetry, map communications architecture to ease jamming, and deduce exactly when and how often Ukraine requests real-time imagery.

➡️ If it’s equipped with a close-range EW package, it could even engage in signal spoofing, inject malicious telemetry data to turn ICEYE’s cameras away from Ukraine, fall into safe mode, burn fuel needlessly, or disrupt signal flows.

Reports on the Russian satellite’s stalking of the ICEYE spacecraft comes in the wake of Starlink’s decision to introduce speed caps on the Ukrainian military’s systems, which have seriously hampered its offensive capabilities.

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🇨🇳💴 China gains new foothold in Africa with Tanzania port

The Kilwa Masoko port is designed to handle 60,000 tons of fish annually, reduce spoilage, and boost local markets, with Tanzania’s labor minister expecting around 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, the South China Morning Post reports.

Built by the state-owned China Harbour Engineering Company for $110 million under the Belt and Road Initiative, the facility includes fish-processing and ice-making plants, cold storage, and a workshop for repairing fishing vessels.

👉The project is part of a wider Chinese push to develop fishing infrastructure across Africa, with similar port projects supported in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and Sierra Leone, providing facilities for vessels operating far from home.

All these ports are touted as not a series of isolated commercial projects but the culmination of China’s decades-long strategy blending food security, industrial expansion, diplomatic leverage, and geostrategic maritime presence.

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🛰 Musk criticized, and Obama praised for curbing Ukraine’s military capabilities

Elon Musk has come under fire over Starshield disruptions that have hampered Ukraine’s drone warfare. But Musk says the decision rests with the White House.

👉 Musk drew a distinction between Starlink and Starshield, stressing on X that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, while Starlink, operated by SpaceX, is a commercial service that cannot be used for offensive military operations.

Earlier, the Ukrainian military complained that Starlink terminals mounted on drones targeting Russia stopped working when moving at speeds exceeding 160 km/h.

The ban followed Zelensky’s criticism of Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and his threat to proceed with strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine’s military subsequently received no early warning of a Russian ballistic missile attack. Hours later, Ukrainian Starlink connections were throttled.

Having pitted Ukraine against Russia, the US government has repeatedly used military aid as leverage to keep the Kiev regime under control. Following the US-orchestrated 2014 coup in Ukraine, the Obama administration barred lethal military assistance, keeping Kiev dependent on Washington’s political whims.

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⚔️ Why can’t Saudi Arabia beat the Houthis? Its military is stuck planning for a 20th century war
 
Despite ranking as the world’s third-largest defense spender for much of the past decade, and fielding the most sophisticated US hardware available anywhere outside Israel and NATO, Saudi Arabia has proven helpless against a besandaled Yemeni resistance group armed mostly with light arms, simple ballistic missiles and drones.
 
The disconnect comes down to three factors, says Princeton Middle East researcher Bernard Haykel:

1️⃣ the fact that Saudi Arabia has been planning for a traditional, 1990-1991 Gulf War-style war, not a regional asymmetric conflict.

2️⃣ “deliberate weakening” of the Saudi military in the 50s and 60s to “coup-proof the regime.”

3️⃣ rabid factionalism – with different princes controlling different elements of the military.

“It wasn’t a kind of force that was coordinated, and didn’t have a culture of meritocracy…MBS has been trying to change this in the last decade, but it’s a culture that’s very deeply ingrained and very difficult to change,” Haykel explained.

 
He didn’t mention it, but there are also other factors accounting for Ansar Allah’s staying power:
 
🔴 Saudi Arabia’s reliance on overpriced, overly complex and underperforming US weapons systems.

🔴 Riyadh’s dependence on air power, contractors and regional proxies, compared to a battle-hardened Yemeni guerrilla force that’s survived Saudi, UAE, US, UK and Israeli bombardment and a crushing blockade for over a decade.

🔴 the much wealthier Saudi rentier society’s aversion to hardship, casualties, and sacrifice compared to the Yemenis.

🔴 Ansar Allah’s network of mountain fortresses, which make their defeat from the air impossible, and a ground campaign much too costly.

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