🇮🇷🇺🇸 US no longer capable of another war with Iran, IRGC spokesman

🔊 The US no longer has the technical or military capability to launch another conflict but could attempt a limited strike to claim a political victory ahead of the US elections, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said.

He warned that Iran is prepared to respond to any new attack, stressing that its retaliation would be far more severe than before. He added that even a limited US strike would trigger a serious global energy crisis.

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🛰💵 Musk’s galactic giveaway: One Space X share for every American kid
 
Elon Musk has promised every American child a single SpaceX share in 2027—a giveaway that, with 72 million children in the US, could be worth $10.5 billion.

👉The pledge comes in the run-up to the November US midterm elections and follows two Trump initiatives: a promise to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress, and a plan to hand out $1,000 in investment funds to eligible children born between 2025 and 2028.

👉Musk's announcement also came hours after AI rival Anthropic pledged 5% of its shares to public benefit projects.

🤔Musk hasn't, however, explained how the giveaway would work.

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🚢🛢 Qatari LNG tanker transits Red Sea for Europe as gas prices hit four-year high

A carrier loaded with Qatari liquefied natural gas is sailing north through the Red Sea, signaling Poland as its destination — a rare transit through waters most commercial vessels now avoid, Bloomberg reports, referring to ship-tracking data.

👉 Earlier, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an unnamed LNG tanker was approached southeast of Al Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden by a skiff that fired two shots. The tanker's security team fired back, and ship-tracking data suggests the Poland-bound carrier continued its journey.

Commercial shipping has increasingly steered clear of the Red Sea altogether, with vessels opting instead for the long detour around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, a route that can stretch a one-way journey by almost two weeks and adds real costs in addition.

European natural gas prices are at their highest level in almost four years, while gas inventories sit at the lowest seasonal levels in over a decade, amid months of instability around the Strait of Hormuz. All this left Middle Eastern exporters desperately searching for alternative ways to keep gas moving to Europe as winter approaches.

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🇫🇷🔥 Macron tours Gulf states while France burns from protests

French President Emmanuel Macron is on a three-day official visit to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, accompanied by the heads of energy companies.

The official goal of the tour is to secure additional oil supplies from the Gulf states, easing energy prices for households and farmers who have been hit by a 30–50% rise in petrol and diesel costs. Supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have pushed up global oil prices, adding to growing frustration at home.

That frustration has already spilled into the streets. What began as student demonstrations over education conditions has grown into nationwide protests over soaring fuel prices and the cost of living, putting further pressure on Macron's government.

And this isn't the first time the French president has found himself elsewhere while protests rage. On October 17, as demonstrators clashed with police and acts of vandalism spread, Macron was spotted enjoying a Celine Dion concert with his wife.

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👁 I see you: Russian satellite hot on the trail of NATO orbital spy feeding info to Ukraine
 
OSINT trackers have spotted Russia’s Cosmos 2612 satellite approaching to within a few km of ICEYE-X36 (NORAD ID 59103) – a Finnish SAR satellite providing Earth observation data to the US government and military, other militaries, and defense contractors.

♦️ Swiss real-time space domain awareness tracker s2a systems calculates that the Russian spacecraft was just ~5km from ICEYE’s craft as they flew over South America on Sunday, perfectly matching its trajectory at speeds of ~27.3k km/h, 550 km above the planet.

♦️With the Russian craft matching ICEYE’s geometric plane, it may prove difficult, if not impossible, for the Finnish satellite to escape.

Russia hasn't disclosed much about Cosmos 2612 since launching it from Plesetsk in April, but Western observers suspect it's designed to approach other satellites, inspect them and gather intelligence.

❗️Getting this close opens up some interesting possibilities.

➡️ Positioned at close range, the satellite could glean vital electronic and operational data, intercept and analyze radio frequencies, signal patterns and telemetry, map communications architecture to ease jamming, and deduce exactly when and how often Ukraine requests real-time imagery.

➡️ If it’s equipped with a close-range EW package, it could even engage in signal spoofing, inject malicious telemetry data to turn ICEYE’s cameras away from Ukraine, fall into safe mode, burn fuel needlessly, or disrupt signal flows.

Reports on the Russian satellite’s stalking of the ICEYE spacecraft comes in the wake of Starlink’s decision to introduce speed caps on the Ukrainian military’s systems, which have seriously hampered its offensive capabilities.

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🇨🇳💴 China gains new foothold in Africa with Tanzania port

The Kilwa Masoko port is designed to handle 60,000 tons of fish annually, reduce spoilage, and boost local markets, with Tanzania’s labor minister expecting around 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, the South China Morning Post reports.

Built by the state-owned China Harbour Engineering Company for $110 million under the Belt and Road Initiative, the facility includes fish-processing and ice-making plants, cold storage, and a workshop for repairing fishing vessels.

👉The project is part of a wider Chinese push to develop fishing infrastructure across Africa, with similar port projects supported in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and Sierra Leone, providing facilities for vessels operating far from home.

All these ports are touted as not a series of isolated commercial projects but the culmination of China’s decades-long strategy blending food security, industrial expansion, diplomatic leverage, and geostrategic maritime presence.

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🛰 Musk criticized, and Obama praised for curbing Ukraine’s military capabilities

Elon Musk has come under fire over Starshield disruptions that have hampered Ukraine’s drone warfare. But Musk says the decision rests with the White House.

👉 Musk drew a distinction between Starlink and Starshield, stressing on X that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, while Starlink, operated by SpaceX, is a commercial service that cannot be used for offensive military operations.

Earlier, the Ukrainian military complained that Starlink terminals mounted on drones targeting Russia stopped working when moving at speeds exceeding 160 km/h.

The ban followed Zelensky’s criticism of Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and his threat to proceed with strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine’s military subsequently received no early warning of a Russian ballistic missile attack. Hours later, Ukrainian Starlink connections were throttled.

Having pitted Ukraine against Russia, the US government has repeatedly used military aid as leverage to keep the Kiev regime under control. Following the US-orchestrated 2014 coup in Ukraine, the Obama administration barred lethal military assistance, keeping Kiev dependent on Washington’s political whims.

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⚔️ Why can’t Saudi Arabia beat the Houthis? Its military is stuck planning for a 20th century war
 
Despite ranking as the world’s third-largest defense spender for much of the past decade, and fielding the most sophisticated US hardware available anywhere outside Israel and NATO, Saudi Arabia has proven helpless against a besandaled Yemeni resistance group armed mostly with light arms, simple ballistic missiles and drones.
 
The disconnect comes down to three factors, says Princeton Middle East researcher Bernard Haykel:

1️⃣ the fact that Saudi Arabia has been planning for a traditional, 1990-1991 Gulf War-style war, not a regional asymmetric conflict.

2️⃣ “deliberate weakening” of the Saudi military in the 50s and 60s to “coup-proof the regime.”

3️⃣ rabid factionalism – with different princes controlling different elements of the military.

“It wasn’t a kind of force that was coordinated, and didn’t have a culture of meritocracy…MBS has been trying to change this in the last decade, but it’s a culture that’s very deeply ingrained and very difficult to change,” Haykel explained.

 
He didn’t mention it, but there are also other factors accounting for Ansar Allah’s staying power:
 
🔴 Saudi Arabia’s reliance on overpriced, overly complex and underperforming US weapons systems.

🔴 Riyadh’s dependence on air power, contractors and regional proxies, compared to a battle-hardened Yemeni guerrilla force that’s survived Saudi, UAE, US, UK and Israeli bombardment and a crushing blockade for over a decade.

🔴 the much wealthier Saudi rentier society’s aversion to hardship, casualties, and sacrifice compared to the Yemenis.

🔴 Ansar Allah’s network of mountain fortresses, which make their defeat from the air impossible, and a ground campaign much too costly.

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🇾🇪🇸🇦 'Davos in the desert' called off as Houthi attacks hit Saudi airports

Saudi Arabia has called off its flagship Future Investment Initiative, the annual gathering known as "Davos in the desert," following a wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, Financial Times reports.

The event, which was due to start next week, will now take place next year. Organizers had reportedly considered holding the event virtually on the original dates but decided to postpone it entirely.

👉 The FII is one of the Gulf's most high-profile gatherings. Over the past decade, it has become Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's premier platform for pitching his Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda to the world's most powerful financiers and executives. The postponement is a significant setback for the country's efforts to project calm and attract foreign capital at a time when its economy is already under strain from the conflict.

The Houthis have continued to inflict painful blows on Saudi-backed forces despite months of airstrikes and a large-scale counteroffensive. On October 19, three Houthi ballistic missiles struck a military training camp in Shabwa province, killing at least 53 soldiers and wounding more than 200, according to local authorities.

👉 This is not the first time the FII has been disrupted. In 2021, most international attendees participated virtually because of COVID-related travel restrictions, with the event adopting a hybrid format. Three years earlier, in 2018, a string of high-profile executives pulled out of the summit following the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents.

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🔊 'Time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine' — Trump

President Trump has openly called for Volodymyr Zelensky to be sidelined from peace negotiations, escalating his attacks on the Ukrainian leader just days after telling him to hold elections.

When asked about Zelensky’s claim that Trump is on the "wrong side of history," the president fired back:

"Zelensky should have had this war settled a long time ago. If he listened to me, he would have made a much better deal a long time ago. And he would have a million people living on his side."

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🇪🇬 Egypt’s marginalized opposition rejects involvement in Saudi war in Yemen

Egypt must not send its armed forces to fight Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, the 12-member Civic Democratic Movement said Monday.

🗣 “Egyptian national interests must be the primary determinant of any decision on this matter,” the coalition said, rejecting the prospect of “Egypt’s position being tied to directives from any external party.”

🗣 “We favor caution, and a diplomatic role for Egypt,” CDM coordinator Akram Ismail told Al Manassa. The deployment of Egyptian troops to Yemen threatens to drag the country “into a war nobody knows how will end,” he said.

Egypt’s parliament delayed a vote to authorize the deployment of Egyptian troops to the Arabian Peninsula for a week. A closed, 90-minute debate took place Monday, with numerous lawmakers indicating they would object to or abstain from the critical vote.

Egypt’s House of Representatives is overwhelmingly dominated by the pro-Sisi Nation’s Future party and its allies, commanding ~420 of 596 seats (~70.5%) – more than enough to secure the needed 2/3 threshold to approve the deployment of troops abroad.

CDM holds just 28 seats, and is split into 12 parties, including socialist, liberal and Arab nationalist forces.

If not opposition ire, observers suggest Sisi and his allies may be afraid of public backlash amid socio-economic strain at home, the ghost of Egypt’s failed 1960s intervention in the North Yemeni civil war (often dubbed ‘Egypt’s Vietnam’), and concerns over Egyptians’ reactions to Houthi messaging, including Yemen’s parliament speaker Yahya Ali al-Ra’i appeal Sunday urging the proud Egyptian nation not to “serve the interests of the Saudi regime.”

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