XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.
📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.
📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO
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At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.
📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik
📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik
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Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.
📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr
📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr
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The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.
- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.
- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.
- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.
- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.
- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.
- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.
- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.
- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.
- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.
- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.
- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.
- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.
- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.
- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
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#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
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The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
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The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
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During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
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BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band.
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
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Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
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The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
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Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC.
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r
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