The Week On-Chain 18, 2026
Bulls Approach the Ceiling

#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.2k and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1k, with holding above these levels suggesting a short-lived deep value phase and $85.2k as the next key resistance.


- Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy has re-entered allocation after BTC reclaimed ~$76K, capturing recent upside while maintaining a focus on downside protection.

- Front-end implied volatility has repriced higher following the breakout, while realized volatility lags, rebuilding a positive volatility risk premium.



Read the full Week On-Chain

At $82.1k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~6.9% of the market cap.

📉 glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

US 10Y yields have rebounded toward 4.4%, a level that previously coincided with pressure on
$BTC.

This time, BTC has recovered above $80K despite the rates backdrop, suggesting the market is absorbing the macro headwind more effectively than earlier in the cycle.

📈https://glassno.de/4nqHY9i

BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases.

Executive Summary
– US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks
Shallow drawdown – Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds
– Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions
– Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range)
– Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks
– Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices
– Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower
– Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K

Read the full Report
glassno.de/4wo7d0c

The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow dropped to -$88M/day, the largest outflow since mid-February.
February's outflows occurred into price weakness. This wave is selling into strength, with BTC trading near $80k.
Institutional participants were using the recovery over the recent days as an exit, not responding to fear.

📉glassno.de/4nrzXRD

At $76.7k, more than 7.8M BTC are currently held at a loss.

The supply overhang from buyers near cycle highs remains substantial, a weight the market will need to absorb before any sustained move higher becomes structurally credible.

📉 glassno.de/4wrCX4y

Median SOPR across the top 500 coins just hit break-even (SOPR=1), the highest reading since BTC traded near all time highs. The move was met with heavy selling across the market.

The typical altcoin holder has been realizing losses since late 2024.

📊 https://glassno.de/4wBiDxG