$BTC has stalled under its heaviest supply cluster.

More long-term holder coins sit at $84k–$85k than at any other price on the chart.

Price needs to break through and hold above this level for the rally to continue.

$BTC is rallying on less leverage.

Price is up 35% from the August low, while coin-denominated open interest is down almost 20%.

That puts open interest at its lowest since March, potentially making the rally less susceptible to leverage flushes.

There are several ways to earn yield on Bitcoin.

In our latest report with @xapobankapp, we examine the Bitcoin yield landscape in detail.

Bitcoin is holding up, but it has hit a wall of sellers at $85K.

Our new Week On-chain maps what it would take to break through.

Bitcoin's relative strength is back.

In June, $BTC beat the S&P 500 on just 1/5th of trading days, the weakest stretch in six years.

Its win rate is now back above 50% with stocks flat.

This points to an idiosyncratic bid for Bitcoin itself.

The sell wall over $BTC has gone.

Buyers took out the $85k wall yesterday, after almost a week of failed tests.

The rest of the sell orders seem to have been removed.

With reduced ask liquidity above, this should allow price to move up faster.

Sellers stepped aside and $BTC ran higher.

The asks at $85k were partly filled and the rest pulled, which left little resistance above.

Price has now reached the next cluster of sell orders around $87k.

It is about half the size of the old wall.

$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.

Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.

Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year.

Those who bought the decline are not.

The market repriced the odds of an October Fed hike from 66% to 22% this week.

Here is our commentary on the repricing as it happened and what Bitcoin did.

https://glassno.de/pricing-out-the-hike

$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.

No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.

In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.

This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.

$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.

If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.

Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.

Either side could speed up the next move.

Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.

Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.

It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.