Altcoin leverage is still running hot.

Prices have pulled back since leverage peaked earlier this month, yet over 40% of large caps still sit near their highest leverage of the year. In mid caps, that share is at a yearly high.

A deeper drop would put many longs at risk.

Short-term profit-taking has weighed on $BTC.

Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since.

The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.

ETF buyers came back in size yesterday.

US spot $BTC ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT.

That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.

The Q4 levels for $BTC have held so far.

Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation.

Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since.

A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k.

Read our full quarterly report below👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2110737242608246947

Binance asks and the biggest liquidation clusters sit around $87K.

The top buyers still cap $BTC price near the same levels.

A daily close above that level with ETF inflows would show buyers absorbing the supply.

More in this week's Week On Chain

$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K.

Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone.

More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.

BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying.

They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18.

In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases.

$BTC is testing the ETF cost basis around $81K again.

The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week's sweep from just below.

A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play.

Traditional finance is moving onto crypto rails.

Perpetuals on stocks, gold and oil grew into a large part of perp trading on major venues while $BTC sat in a bear market.

Our new report with Fasanara Digital examines what that means for allocators.

Speculation rotated into equities during Bitcoin's bear market.

On Hyperliquid, TradFi perps hit over 3x the $BTC perp's volume in August, just when BTC investors capitulated.

More in our report with @FasanaraDigital:
https://glassno.de/fasanara-q4

AI agents can now use our custom backtesting engine.

Connect Claude or ChatGPT to Glassnode Alpha Lab, describe the goal, and it tests strategies using our data.

The agent asks & our machine learning framework does the heavy lifting.

Watch on X

Recent $BTC buyers have left the strong sell zone.

In late September, almost all short-term holder supply was in profit. Now it has cooled to about 70%.

For buyers who expect the uptrend to continue, that makes this a considerably better entry than a month ago.

Our backtesting engine found this $BTC rule.

It buys when the 30-day RSI of entities in profit crosses above its threshold.

Since July 2023, its worst drawdown was 20%, against 53% for holding.

Discover your own strategy 👈

Hyperliquid whales are net short $BTC for the first time since March.

This group managed to long the bottom, but the positioning flipped last week.

The question is whether they are early to a deeper pullback, or about to be squeezed if price turns higher.

$BTC is beating the S&P 500 again.

Over recent weeks it has won more trading days than it lost. In June it won only one day in five, its weakest stretch in more than five years.

Outperformance like this could become reflexive as investors move to the strongest asset class.