New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort

This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.

Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
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The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity

#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.

Executive Summary

- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.

- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.

- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.

Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
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BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers' cost basis range ($60k–$70k).
Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.
The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude.

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🔁UPDATE:

The recent rally toward $76k coincided with smaller wallet cohorts shifting toward distribution. 🟥
Broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes remains absent, limiting the sustainability of upward moves.

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The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows.

Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels.

📉glassno.de/4bJAHgX

The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011.

Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network.

📉 glassno.de/3NVcqes

The Week On-Chain 13, 2026
No Catalyst, No Range Break

Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand shows early absorption and derivatives reset. Volatility cools and positioning balances, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.

Executive Summary

- Total Supply in Loss sits near 8.4M BTC, echoing the Q2 2022 structure, when roughly 3M BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could reclaim its cycle mid-line.

- Coinbase Spot CVD has turned marginally positive, suggesting spot buyers are starting to absorb sell-side pressure, though demand remains well below the levels typically seen at durable lows.

- Perpetual positioning is now far less momentum-driven, with bullish exposure being unwound and short-side interest re-emerging, leaving futures more balanced but also more cautious.

Read the full Week On-Chain

Bitcoin Block 943,400

Only 1,600 blocks (~11 days) until we hit the halfway point to the next halving.
Block 945,000 is coming.

📉 glassno.de/4v5TASP

The big hands are bleeding.

With price contracting from ATH, Sharks & Whales (0.1K–10K BTC) are realizing losses at scale. The 7D-SMA of realized loss is now at >$200M/day.
Typical capitulation behaviour from larger entities.

📉 glassno.de/4v9gzw7

With price trading at $1.33, the Percent of XRP Supply in Profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest since July 2024.

With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who accumulated above $2 over the past 12 months have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M – $110M/day since November 2025.
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