The Week On-Chain 14, 2026
Bouncing in a Bear

Bitcoin bounced from $67k to $72k, but weak spot demand and softer futures activity suggest the recovery still lacks strong conviction, even as ETF flows begin to turn modestly positive.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin remains within a subdued and low-conviction market environment, with weak spot activity and thinner derivatives participation continuing to limit upside follow-through.

- Spot volume remains soft, with Binance’s 30-day relative volume still sitting below the 1.0 baseline, highlighting a lack of strong organic demand beneath the recent stabilization in price.

- Futures volume has contracted sharply, with the 30-day average rolling over and trending lower, reinforcing the view that traders are stepping back rather than aggressively re-engaging after the recent deleveraging event.

Read the full Week On-Chain

LTH Relative Unrealized Loss captures the total unrealized loss held by Long-Term Holders, normalized by market cap, reflecting the depth of pain among the most convicted cohort.
The 30D-SMA currently sits at 14% of market cap, substantially below the levels at which prior bear markets have historically resolved (~70%)

📉 http://glassno.de/4sXmxyH

Relative Unrealized Loss measures total unrealized loss as a % of market cap, a gauge of how deeply underwater the holder base sits.

As today:
SOL: 54.8%
XRP: 31.8%
BTC: 11.9%
ETH: 16.6%

The elevated loss levels in altcoins reflect how heavy the top is in these markets, where supply is more concentrated among buyers who entered near cycle highs.

📉 glassno.de/4ejyOce

Following recent positive momentum across crypto markets, ETH has reclaimed the 1-3 month holder cost basis at $2.3k.
So far, this structure is consistent with a bear market relief rally, comparable to the bounces observed in Q3-Q4 2022, rather than a structural trend reversal.

📉 glassno.de/3Oo9047

The Week On-Chain 15, 2026
Approaching the Ceiling

#BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has expanded to ~$74K, now 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78.1K, which remains the key near-term resistance. Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit sits at 43.2%, leaving room for further upside before typical distribution thresholds are reached.

- Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply.

- Institutional positioning is stabilizing, with ETF inflows and CME exposure rebounding. However, participation remains below prior highs, pointing to a cautious and selective re-engagement rather than a full risk-on shift.

Read the full Week On-Chain

Early $IBIT options flows show sharp swings in the put/call ratio, highlighting active positioning shifts as BTC trades near ~$70k.

We’ve expanded our options suite to cover $IBIT, bringing institutional-grade derivatives insights to the largest US spot BTC ETF.

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The Week On-Chain 16, 2026
Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial

#BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.


Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling.

- ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows.

- Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues.

- Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk.


Read the full Week On-Chain

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.

After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing

Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I

Whales on Hyperliquid have been longing the breakout of the range. Their conviction and long positioning have steadily increased over the past two months, signaling strong bullish sentiment among big perp players.

📊https://glassno.de/495ArH0

Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level.

Read the full Options Weekly here

Aave V3 lost $4.0B in available liquidity in 29 hours after the Kelp DAO rsETH bridge exploit.

WETH utilization hit 100% in 1.4 hours, seven hours before the Protocol Guardian's freeze.
The contracts held throughout. The bridge did not.

Read the full report 👇
📰http://glassno.de/4ubtLzl

The Week On-Chain 17, 2026
Trapped Below Market Mean

#BTC remains capped below the True Market Mean, with support at $65k–$70k. Spot selling is easing and flows stabilise, but demand is weak. Heavy short positioning leaves room for squeezes in a range-bound market.



Executive Summary
- Price has rejected at the True Market Mean (~$79k) and short-term holder cost basis, confirming resistance and reinforcing a mid-term downside bias.

- Spot selling pressure is easing, with volume delta recovering toward neutral and early signs of buyer re-engagement emerging.

- Perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, highlighting elevated hedging activity and squeeze potential.



Read the full Week On-Chain