The Week On-Chain 16, 2026
Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial

#BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.


Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling.

- ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows.

- Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues.

- Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk.


Read the full Week On-Chain

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.

After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing

Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I

Whales on Hyperliquid have been longing the breakout of the range. Their conviction and long positioning have steadily increased over the past two months, signaling strong bullish sentiment among big perp players.

📊https://glassno.de/495ArH0

Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level.

Read the full Options Weekly here

Aave V3 lost $4.0B in available liquidity in 29 hours after the Kelp DAO rsETH bridge exploit.

WETH utilization hit 100% in 1.4 hours, seven hours before the Protocol Guardian's freeze.
The contracts held throughout. The bridge did not.

Read the full report 👇
📰http://glassno.de/4ubtLzl

The Week On-Chain 17, 2026
Trapped Below Market Mean

#BTC remains capped below the True Market Mean, with support at $65k–$70k. Spot selling is easing and flows stabilise, but demand is weak. Heavy short positioning leaves room for squeezes in a range-bound market.



Executive Summary
- Price has rejected at the True Market Mean (~$79k) and short-term holder cost basis, confirming resistance and reinforcing a mid-term downside bias.

- Spot selling pressure is easing, with volume delta recovering toward neutral and early signs of buyer re-engagement emerging.

- Perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, highlighting elevated hedging activity and squeeze potential.



Read the full Week On-Chain

🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading at $75.7K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:

🟡 Active Investors Mean: $85.0k
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $78.9K
🟢True Market Mean: $78.0K
---- Spot Price: $75.7K ----
🔵 Realized Price: $54.1K

📊 glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The Week On-Chain 18, 2026
Bulls Approach the Ceiling

#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.2k and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1k, with holding above these levels suggesting a short-lived deep value phase and $85.2k as the next key resistance.


- Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy has re-entered allocation after BTC reclaimed ~$76K, capturing recent upside while maintaining a focus on downside protection.

- Front-end implied volatility has repriced higher following the breakout, while realized volatility lags, rebuilding a positive volatility risk premium.



Read the full Week On-Chain