BTC has returned to a key inflection point after sweeping both the February and June lows.

Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.

Volatility Rebounds

BTC IV is rising as price revisits the February lows. 1 week IV has jumped from 33% to 45%, with the rest of the curve also moving higher. Options markets are pricing greater uncertainty as downside volatility returns.

https://glassno.de/4amt4vK

Protection Demand Returns

25 Delta Skew is rising across the curve as traders pay a growing premium for puts over calls. 1W skew has climbed to 30%, while longer maturities have also moved higher. Demand for downside protection is building again.

https://glassno.de/4vQ3at7

Calls Remain Out of Favor

The Skew Index Ratio compares upside IV vs downside IV. Only the 6 month tenor remains above 1, while shorter dated maturities all trade below neutral, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection than upside exposure.

https://glassno.de/3QLDTkn

Volatility Risk Premium Resets

1M implied volatility has caught back up with realized volatility. After spending the past 2 weeks below realized moves, the spread is now at zero. Options markets are no longer underpricing recent volatility.

https://glassno.de/4xQdFha

Short Gamma Dominates Below Spot

Following today's large options expiry, traders rebuilt downside exposure, forcing market makers to be short gamma from 60.5K down to 55K, where dealer hedging could amplify volatility if BTC moves lower.

https://glassno.de/4f2myge

Put Activity Dominates

Put selling led taker flow over the past 7 days, accounting for 38.3% of premium traded, followed by put buying at 32.1%. Call activity remained muted. The options tape continues to revolve around downside exposure.

https://glassno.de/4eIuge1

Wrap Up

Implied volatility has rebounded.

Protection demand is building.

Calls remain out of favor.

Volatility risk premium has normalized.

Short gamma dominates below 60.5K.

Put activity dominates the tape.

Options positioning remains defensive near key support.

Analyzing Spot $BTC ETF Volumes

Chart of the Week👇

Directional managers posted strong gains in May, led by Fundamental (+8.62%) and Event Driven (+11.43%) approaches.

Stock selection drove the standout returns rather than market direction.

Strategy Watch, produced with CIG, is live.

Following Strategy’s June 29 announcement, its preferred shares rebounded strongly into month-end, with $STRC recovering around 13%. Bitcoin continued to show weakness, closing June below $60k.

📉 https://glassno.de/4xXbDfp

As $BTC extends its drawdown, options markets are repricing risk, volatility, and the probabilities investors assign to the next major move.

Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇

DVOL is trending higher as $BTC's sell-off extends, signalling a gradual repricing of future volatility. The move reflects growing uncertainty, though implied volatility remains well below the extremes seen during major market dislocations.
https://glassno.de/4y3vzgE

Despite Bitcoin's rebound from $58K, Skew remains firmly positive, indicating puts continue to command a premium over calls. Demand for downside protection persists, although the retreat from June's extremes suggests defensive positioning is beginning to ease.
https://glassno.de/3SGoSAY

With $BTC still trading in negative gamma territory, dealer hedging may continue to amplify price swings. Combined with elevated implied volatility and persistent demand for puts, the options market remains cautiously defensive.
https://glassno.de/3QDXIKu

Altcoin Cycle Signal update: the altcoin signal remains firmly in "altcoin season". This is strength beyond the denominator effect we described last month. Alts remain strong both on a relative and absolute basis.
https://glassno.de/3RhFoXG

Quoting @glassnode:
The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work.
https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr

Bottoms are formed by a shift in regime.

The Vector framework is still signaling a Strong Risk-Off environment for Bitcoin. However, under the surface, metrics are beginning to pivot. A potential bottom may be forming.

We'll alert you the second it confirms

One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction.

https://glassno.de/44Imuwb