$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.

MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.

This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses.

The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit.

Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit.

That point is still a long way off.

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The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear.

At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows.

This one is 30% below its high and rising.

A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.

Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year.

Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.

Short-term $BTC holders are back above the sell line.

Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.

More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638

Holders are realizing profits on $BTC.

However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.

They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.

Only 9 of the top 50 altcoins have beaten $BTC since its all-time high.

ZEC leads by a wide margin, up 14x against Bitcoin.

HYPE, XMR and NEAR follow at 2–3x.

This is the first $BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.

This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.

More on the next levels, sell pressure and ETF flows in this week's Week On-chain 👇

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638

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Spot traders are turning to altcoins.

Total spot volume now runs close to 4x Bitcoin's, the highest since September 2025.

Demand for higher risk like this has often lined up with local tops in $BTC.

$BTC has stalled under its heaviest supply cluster.

More long-term holder coins sit at $84k–$85k than at any other price on the chart.

Price needs to break through and hold above this level for the rally to continue.