$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.

No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.

In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.

This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.

$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.

If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.

Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.

Either side could speed up the next move.

Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.

Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.

It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.

Large entities are back in profit.

Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.

In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.

Bitcoin got through the $85K wall, but the rally is running light.

Our new Week On-chain maps what is missing, what altcoins are doing and the levels to watch.

The US bid that led $BTC has flipped.

From July to the September breakout, US trading hours drove most of Bitcoin's gains. Since then, the US session has been a net seller.

The full picture, from ETF flows to liquidations, in this week's Week On-chain 👇

Bitcoin is moving into support.

After a rejection from the sell wall at $86.5K, $BTC has slid toward multiple large buy orders. The largest sits around $81k.

These bids have been patiently waiting and will help to dampen downside.

Existing holders have been carrying this $BTC rally.

The realized cap keeps climbing while new money from ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries is dropping.

The 2024 and 2025 rallies showed the same gap, but on far larger inflows. A pickup in new money would put real demand behind BTC.

Most #BTC with a visible public key is exposed through address reuse, and that part has been growing.

The balance in reused addresses rose from 3.79M to 4.33M BTC over the past year, and now covers 21.5% of circulating supply.

$BTC has bounced off the ETF cost basis.

Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it.

It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.

The cost basis of investors that bought the top still caps BTC's upside.

Holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily as $BTC rallied toward $88k, where the 6 to 12 month group breaks even. Price stalled just under it.

That selling has since slowed considerably.

BTC is holding the ETF cost basis.

That line sits near $81.5K, and every daily close for the last 3 weeks has held above it. A large block of bids waits just below.

A break under this level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.

https://x.com/i/article/2110391618755031040